September 9, 2013 - Battle Of The Bills In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Stringer Hits 50% In Comptroller's Race
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An unusually large bloc of undecided voters could push Public Advocate Bill de Blasio over the 40 percent mark in the New York City Democratic primary for mayor or set the stage for a Battle of the Bills between de Blasio and former City Comptroller William Thompson, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today.

De Blasio leads among likely Democratic primary voters with 39 percent, followed by 25 percent for Thompson, 18 percent for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, 6 percent for former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, 4 percent for Comptroller John Liu, 1 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese and 8 percent undecided.

This compares to a September 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing de Blasio with 43 percent, Thompson with 20 percent and Quinn with 18 percent.

"It looks as if Public Advocate Bill de Blasio couldn't hold that 43 percent in a week when he was in the spotlight and he got walloped by everybody. His support by black voters slipped just enough to make a runoff possible. But he's ever so close," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Remember that there are no undecided voters on Election Day. If de Blasio picks up just a few of those undecided voters, he's over the top. In our last few days of polling, however, we're seeing the movement to 2009 Democratic nominee William Thompson.

"There's been no movement by Speaker Christine Quinn as she could be out of the running. This is a vote where tiny changes on the final day really could make a difference. Will de Blasio avoid a runoff or will we have a Battle of the Bills? Flip a coin."

Among the New York City likely Democratic primary voters who do name a candidate, 18 percent say there is still a "good chance" they will change their mind by tomorrow.

De Blasio still leads among black voters with 37 percent, followed by Thompson with 27 percent and Quinn with 9 percent. White voters go 40 percent for de Blasio, 26 percent for Quinn and 24 percent for Thompson. Hispanic voters go 44 percent for de Blasio, 26 percent for Thompson and 14 percent for Quinn.

Women back de Blasio with 40 percent, followed by 22 percent for Thompson and 19 percent for Quinn. Men go 38 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for Thompson and 16 percent for Quinn.

Comptroller's Race

Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer breaks out of the too-close-to-call comptroller's race with 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, as former Gov. Eliot Spitzer takes 43 percent. Another 7 percent remain undecided and 13 percent of those who name a candidate say there is a "good chance" they will change their mind by tomorrow.

This compares to results of a September 4 Quinnipiac University poll showing Stringer with 47 percent and Spitzer with 45 percent.

Today's survey shows women moving to Stringer for the first time in this race, giving 50 percent to Spitzer's 41 percent. Stringer has 49 percent of men, to 46 percent for Spitzer.

Large racial divides remain as Stringer leads 65 - 31 percent among white voters, while Spitzer leads 58 - 30 percent among black voters and 51 - 44 percent among Hispanic voters.

"Borough President Scott Stringer has the momentum as he overcomes a huge publicity blitz by former Gov. Eliot Spitzer. He's not home free, but he looks to be on the plus side of the racial split with a big white vote offsetting the almost as big black vote for Spitzer," Carroll said.

From September 6 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 782 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
Likely Democratic Primary Voters


1. If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Liu                   4%     3%     5%     2%     5%     2%     4%     4%     4%     3%
Quinn                18     16     19     26      9     14     15     19     21     15
Thompson             25     28     22     24     27     26     28     24     25     25
de Blasio            39     38     40     40     37     44     40     38     41     37
Weiner                6      7      5      5      7      6      7      5      4      7
Albanese              1      -      1      1      -      2      1      1      2      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 8      7      8      3     15      7      5     10      4     11
 
TREND: If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS..............
                     Sep 09  Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Liu                   4       4       6       6       6       7
Quinn                18      18      21      24      27      22
Thompson             25      20      20      22      20      20
de Blasio            39      43      36      30      21      15
Weiner                6       7       8      10      16      26
Albanese              1       1       1       1       2       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 8       8       8       7       7       8
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Def vote for cand    67%    63%    68%    70%
Unlikely to change   12     16     12     12
Good chance change   18     19     18     16
DK/NA                 3      2      2      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS......
                     Sep 09  Sep 03  Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    67      60      49      46      45
Unlikely to change   12      13      15      16      14
Good chance change   18      24      31      34      35
DK/NA                 3       3       6       4       6
2. If the Democratic primary for City Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer and Scott Stringer, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Spitzer or Stringer (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Spitzer              43%    46%    41%    31%    58%    51%    48%    40%    39%    48%
Stringer             50     49     50     65     30     44     47     52     57     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      2      -      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 7      4      8      4     11      5      5      8      4      8
 
TREND: If the Democratic primary for City Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer and Scott Stringer, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Spitzer or Stringer? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS......
                     Sep 09  Sep 04  Aug 29  Aug 14  Jul 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Spitzer              43      45      46      56      49
Stringer             50      47      46      37      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       7       8       7       6
 
 
2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q2), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen q2)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot   Spitzer Stringer
 
Def vote for cand    79%    77%    80%
Unlikely to change    7      6      7
Good chance change   13     15     11
DK/NA                 2      2      3
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (Candidate not chosen)? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS......
                     Sep 09  Sep 04  Aug 29  Aug 14  Jul 25
                     2013    2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    79      78      75      70      67
Unlikely to change    7       7       7      10      12
Good chance change   13      13      15      18      19
DK/NA                 2       2       3       2       3
 

Demographic Summary