October 30, 2013 - New York City Voters Split On De Blasio's Promises, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But He Still Has Huge Lead In Mayor's Race
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New York City likely voters are divided on whether Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, the Democratic candidate for mayor, can keep his campaign promises, but they back him over Republican Joseph Lhota 65 - 26 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today. Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has 3 percent.

This compares to a 68 - 24 percent de Blasio lead in an October 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

De Blasio can keep his campaign promises, 42 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say he can not keep his promises.

New York City voters say 45 - 40 percent that Lhota's message is too negative. The Republican gets a negative 33 - 44 percent favorability rating, compared to de Blasio's positive 64 - 25 percent score. For Carrion, 75 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

De Blasio leads 51 - 40 percent among white voters, 90 - 1 percent among black voters, 85 - 10 percent among Hispanic voters, 69 - 21 percent among women, 60 - 32 percent among men and 85 - 9 percent among Democrats. Lhota takes Republicans 75 - 19 percent. Independent voters are divided 43 - 43 percent.

Seven percent of likely voters remain undecided and 9 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by November 5.

"They'll vote - big - for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, but they're skeptical about those big campaign promises," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"It's a wipe-out, more than 2-1 for the Democratic candidate. Voters have gotten to know Republican Joe Lhota better, but they don't like him any better. Maybe they're turned off by those exceptionally tough TV commercials."

"By a narrow margin, voters think Lhota's message is too negative," Carroll added.

"But they wonder if de Blasio can deliver. Income inequality? Jobs? It's a split between the doubters and the believers."

Republicans say 74 - 15 percent that de Blasio can't keep his campaign promises and independent voters agree 59 - 26 percent. Democrats believe 53 - 31 percent.

Lhota is too negative, Democrats say 56 - 28 percent. He is not too negative, Republicans say 80 - 11 percent and independent voters say 52 - 37 percent.

From October 25 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 728 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            65%    19%    85%    43%    60%    69%    51%    90%    85%
Lhota                26     75      9     43     32     21     40      1     10
Carrion               3      3      1      6      3      2      3      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      5      7      5      8      5      6      3
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
de Blasio            65      68      71      66
Lhota                26      24      21      25
Carrion               3       2       2       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       1       1
DK/NA                 7       5       5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Lhota  deBlasio
 
Def vote for cand    83%    85%    83%
Unlikely to change    7      7      7
Good chance change    9      7      8
DK/NA                 1      -      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......
                     Oct 30  Oct 21  Oct 03
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    83      80      77
Unlikely to change    7      10      10
Good chance change    9       8      11
DK/NA                 1       3       2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Lhota  deBlasio
 
Very enthusiastic    39%    32%    43%
Somewhat             46     49     46
Not so               10     13      8
Not at all            3      5      2
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN......
                     Oct 30  Oct 21  Oct 03
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    39      37      35
Somewhat             46      46      50
Not so               10      10       9
Not at all            3       4       4
DK/NA                 2       2       2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            64%    17%    82%    46%    60%    68%    50%    85%    85%
Unfavorable          25     71      8     42     31     20     38      5     10
Hvn't hrd enough      9     11      8     10      7     10     10      8      5
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      2      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            64      65      69      63
Unfavorable          25      23      19      21
Hvn't hrd enough      9      10      11      14
REFUSED               2       2       2       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            33%    65%    21%    51%    40%    28%    49%    10%    20%
Unfavorable          44     14     55     34     44     44     33     63     49
Hvn't hrd enough     20     20     20     15     14     24     15     22     30
REFUSED               3      1      4      1      2      4      3      5      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            33      31      26      30
Unfavorable          44      39      36      35
Hvn't hrd enough     20      27      33      32
REFUSED               3       3       4       3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            13%     9%    14%    15%    13%    14%    10%    21%    13%
Unfavorable           9      3     11      6     11      7      6      7     21
Hvn't hrd enough     75     86     72     79     74     76     81     70     63
REFUSED               3      3      3      1      3      3      2      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................
                     Oct 30  Oct 21  Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Favorable            13      11      10       9
Unfavorable           9      11      14      10
Hvn't hrd enough     75      77      73      78
REFUSED               3       1       2       3
 
 
5. Do you believe that de Blasio would be able to keep his campaign promises or don't you think so?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Keep promises    42%    15%    53%    26%    38%    44%    30%    62%    53%
No                   43     74     31     59     51     37     55     27     24
DK/NA                15     11     15     15     11     18     15     10     23
 
 
6. Do you believe that Lhota's message is too negative or don't you think so?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Too negative     45%    11%    56%    37%    42%    47%    37%    64%    44%
No                   40     80     28     52     45     36     52     19     34
DK/NA                15      9     16     11     13     17     11     17     22
 
 

Demographic Summary