January 22, 2008 - Giuliani, McCain Tied In New York GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Likely Voter Poll Finds; Clinton Has 51 Percent Of Dem Voters, 2-1 Lead Over Obama

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Arizona Sen. John McCain is tied 30 - 30 percent with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani among New York State likely Republican presidential primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 9 percent, with 8 percent each for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has 51 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with 25 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 11 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll's first survey in this election cycle of New York's likely voters, a more select group than the wider range of registered voters surveyed in prior polls.

Among black Democratic likely primary voters, Sen. Obama leads 45 - 37 percent, while Sen. Clinton leads among whites 52 - 21 percent. Clinton also leads 54 - 20 percent among women and 47 - 32 percent among men.

"If he can't make it here, he can't make it anywhere. What happens to Mayor Giuliani's presidential prospects if he doesn't score a resounding victory in his native New York?" asked Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"While he's concentrating on the January 29 Florida presidential primary, Giuliani is out of sight and maybe out of mind in New York."

"If Giuliani wins big in Florida, maybe that catapults him to a big win the following week in New York and other Super Tuesday states. But a January 14 Quinnipiac University poll in Florida showed a four-way Republican horse race," Carroll added.

"On the Democratic side, Sen. Clinton has a resounding 2 - 1 lead in the state that sent her to the Senate," Carroll added.

"But watch out for the Black vote. When one of 'their own' is on the ballot, such as Catholics for Kennedy in 1960 or Latinos for Ferrer in 2005, a group's votes might come in higher than pre-election polls indicate.

"And once we know who the nominees are, and whether Mayor Michael Bloomberg is going to make it a three-way race, we can start thinking about November."

A total of 71 percent of Giuliani's Republican backers say they are "not too likely" or "not likely at all" to change their minds, compared to 46 percent of McCain supporters.

Among Democrats, 74 percent of Clinton supporters and 62 percent of Obama backers say they are not likely to change their minds.

"One bright spot for Mayor Giuliani is the depth of commitment among his supporters. A lot of McCain backers could swing back to Giuliani in the next two weeks," Carroll said.

From January 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 331 New York State likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent, and 544 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1.(Registered Dems + Leaners)If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..........
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Clinton                 51%     47%     54%     52%     37%
Edwards                 11      10      12      14       2
Gravel                   0       1       -       -       1
Kucinich                 2       2       2       3       -
Obama                   25      32      20      21      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          0       -       1       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                   10       8      11      10      15
 
1a.(If express choice in Democratic Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
                        LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
                        Tot     Clinton Edwards Obama
 
Very likely              9%      6%     16%      8%
Smwht likely            24      19      38      29
Not too likely          20      20      24      18
Not likely at all       46      54      22      44
DK/NA                    1       1       -       1
 
 
2.(Registered Reps + Leaners) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Paul, Romney, or Thompson? This table includes "Leaners".
                        LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                        Tot     Men     Wom
 
Giuliani                30%     31%     29%
Huckabee                 8       9       8 
Hunter                   0       1       - 
McCain                  30      30      29 
Paul                     4       6       2 
Romney                   9       8      10 
Thompson                 8       9       8 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       - 
DK/NA                    9       7      12 
 
2a.(If express choice in Republican primary)How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
                        LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                        Tot     Giulian McCain
 
Very likely              7%      1%     11%
Smwht likely            35      27      39
Not too likely          22      19      23
Not likely at all       35      52      23
DK/NA                    2       -       4