March 21, 2008 - Clinton Or Obama Top McCain In New York State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; White Voters Prefer Mccain Over Obama

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By almost identical margins, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama top Arizona Sen. John McCain in the New York State presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Clinton tops Sen. McCain 50 - 40 percent, while Obama is ahead 49 - 38 percent.

But there is a huge racial split in the Obama-McCain matchup. The Republican is ahead 47 - 40 percent among white New York State voters, while black voters back the Democrat 86 - 6 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men back Obama 48 - 42 percent and women back him 50 - 35 percent.

White voters split in a Clinton-McCain face-off, with 46 percent for him and 45 percent for her. Blacks back Clinton 70 - 16 percent. Men also split, with 47 percent for McCain and 43 percent for Clinton. Women back Clinton 57 - 34 percent.

"It's a blue state, remember. Sen. McCain would lose to either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama by almost the same double-digit margin," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But those racial and gender breakdowns are troubling for the Democrats. If Obama trails among white voters in New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, what does that say about his chances in other states? And Clinton also must rely on a big turnout by women and blacks if she wants to win in November."

By a 53 - 40 percent margin, New York State voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 56 - 25 percent for Obama and 49 - 31 percent for McCain.

Among registered Democrats, 32 percent would like to see a Clinton-Obama "Dream Ticket" in the November election, while 21 percent prefer an Obama-Clinton ticket and 39 percent don't want to see the Democratic contenders running together.

The most important quality New York State voters look for when they vote for President is:
  • 28 percent, a strong leader;
  • 27 percent, trustworthy;
  • 21 percent, someone who shares their values;
  • 14 percent, experienced.
The economy is the most important issue in how they will vote in November, 47 percent of voters say, followed by 22 percent who list the war in Iraq, 13 percent who list healthcare and 9 percent who list terrorism.

Describing their family's financial situation, 18 percent of voters say they are getting ahead, with 17 percent who say they are falling behind and 64 percent who say they are holding steady.

Despite the small showing for terrorism as an election issue, 70 percent of New York State voters are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" that there will be another major terrorist attack in the U.S.

Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 69 - 26 percent. The U.S. should withdraw all troops from Iraq as soon as possible, 23 percent say, with 49 percent who support a timetable for gradual troop withdrawal and 25 percent who say keep U.S. troops in Iraq as long as needed.

"Biggest issue: The economy. Most important trait: A toss-up between trustworthiness and leadership," Carroll said.

"It could be a standing sentence: President George W. Bush's job approval is, yet again, minute, 21 - 74 percent."

"On Iraq, half of all New Yorkers, and more than half of Democrats, favor a timed withdrawal. About a quarter of New Yorkers overall, and half of Republicans, would stay until the job is done."

From March 16 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,528 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data --http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Clinton                 50%     10%     82%     39%     43%     57%     45%     70%
McCain                  40      82      11      45      47      34      46      16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       2       2       2       1       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       3       3       3       2       2       6
DK/NA                    6       6       3      11       6       6       7       6
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Clinton                 48%     44%     44%     59%     47%     52%     51%
McCain                  37      46      45      31      43      37      41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       1       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       2       3       2       3       2
DK/NA                   10       7       8       5       6       6       6
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Clinton                 50      54      56      55      56
McCain                  40      37      32      34      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       3       4       2       2
DK/NA                    6       5       7       8       6
 
 
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Obama                   49%     13%     75%     44%     48%     50%     40%     86%
McCain                  38      79      12      43      42      35      47       6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       3       1       1       3       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       1       3       3       2       3       3       1
DK/NA                    8       6       6      10       7       9       9       5
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Obama                   54%     41%     42%     60%     45%     57%     45%
McCain                  32      45      43      29      45      32      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       1       3       1       -       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       4       3       2       1       2       3
DK/NA                   13       9      10       6       8       9       7
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                   49      47      48      47      46
McCain                  38      39      33      36      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                    8       8      12      12      14
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               53%     25%     77%     44%     48%     57%     50%     67%
Unfavorable             40      68      18      46      46      35      44      27
Hvn't hrd enough         5       3       4       6       4       5       4       4
REFUSED                  3       3       2       3       3       3       2       2
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable               51%     48%     48%     55%     57%     51%     55%
Unfavorable             36      45      44      36      37      38      40
Hvn't hrd enough        12       4       5       4       4       8       3
REFUSED                  1       2       2       4       2       3       3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Mar 21  Dec 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               53      53      58      59      58      59
Unfavorable             40      34      37      34      35      35
Hvn't hrd enough         5       9       3       5       4       4
REFUSED                  3       3       2       2       3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               56%     35%     70%     56%     56%     56%     50%     82%
Unfavorable             25      45      14      25      26      24      30       5
Hvn't hrd enough        17      18      15      17      16      18      18      11
REFUSED                  2       2       1       2       1       2       2       1
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable               64%     51%     53%     62%     52%     61%     53%
Unfavorable             18      29      28      22      25      24      25
Hvn't hrd enough        16      18      18      14      22      14      19
REFUSED                  2       1       1       3       1       1       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               56      54      48      48      44
Unfavorable             25      20      17      12       9
Hvn't hrd enough        17      24      33      38      46
REFUSED                  2       3       2       1       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               49%     77%     28%     54%     59%     41%     56%     22%
Unfavorable             31      10      47      26      27      34      26      58
Hvn't hrd enough        18      10      22      18      11      23      16      20
REFUSED                  3       2       3       2       3       3       3       1
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable               46%     51%     50%     40%     60%     42%     52%
Unfavorable             36      26      28      38      24      29      32
Hvn't hrd enough        14      20      19      19      13      26      13
REFUSED                  4       3       3       2       3       3       3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               49      49      40      47      48
Unfavorable             31      28      33      23      24
Hvn't hrd enough        18      20      25      27      26
REFUSED                  3       3       2       2       2
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 21%     55%      5%     17%     23%     20%     24%      8%
Disapprove              74      38      94      76      72      76      71      88
DK/NA                    4       6       1       7       4       5       4       4
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Approve                 12%     27%     25%     16%     23%     20%     22%
Disapprove              86      67      70      79      74      76      73
DK/NA                    2       6       6       5       2       3       4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 21  Dec 17  Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14  Nov 14  Mar 21
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2001*   2008
 
Approve                 21      22      24      26      24      82      21
Disapprove              74      73      71      72      72      15      74
DK/NA                    4       5       5       3       4       3       4
 
 
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Terrorism                9%     21%      3%      8%      9%      9%     11%      7%
The war in Iraq         22      16      27      21      19      25      22      20
The economy             47      42      47      53      53      42      47      46
Illegal immigration      4       9       2       3       4       5       4       1
Health care             13       8      17      10      11      15      11      22
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)     2       2       1       2       2       2       2       1
DK/NA                    3       2       2       3       2       3       3       2
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Terrorism                6%      8%      8%      8%     12%      8%     10%
The war in Iraq         23      20      20      21      26      20      22
The economy             51      48      49      47      46      51      46
Illegal immigration      2       3       3       4       7       3       5
Health care             13      15      14      16       5      15      11
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      2       2       2       2       2       2       2
DK/NA                    4       4       4       2       1       1       3
 
 
13. When you decide how to vote for President, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate - trustworthy, shares your values, a strong leader, experienced, or inspiring?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Trustworthy             27%     26%     25%     33%     28%     27%     29%     28%
Shares your values      21      25      19      21      20      23      24      15
A strong leader         28      30      30      25      27      30      27      32
Experienced             14      14      15      12      13      15      14      15
Inspiring                5       2       8       5       8       3       4       9
DK/NA                    3       2       3       4       5       3       3       2
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Trustworthy             31%     30%     30%     24%     28%     24%     30%
Shares your values      18      25      24      20      17      26      18
A strong leader         28      23      24      29      37      30      28
Experienced             17      13      14      16      10      11      16
Inspiring                3       5       5       6       5       7       4
DK/NA                    3       4       3       4       2       3       3
 
 
14. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Getting ahead           18%     17%     19%     18%     23%     14%     17%     23%
Falling behind          17      15      17      18      13      19      16      18
Holding steady          64      67      63      63      62      66      67      59
DK/NA                    1       2       -       1       1       1       1       -
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Getting ahead           17%     15%     15%     18%     25%     24%     15%
Falling behind          18      18      18      16      14      16      16
Holding steady          62      66      66      64      60      58      67
DK/NA                    3       1       1       1       1       2       1
 
 
15. What do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants working in the United States - A) Should they be offered a chance to apply for citizenship, OR B) Should they be allowed to stay as temporary workers, OR C) Should they be deported to the country they came from?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Citizenship             47%     34%     57%     46%     48%     46%     42%     68%
Temporary workers       25      24      25      26      22      27      23      18
Deported                22      34      13      24      26      19      27       9
DK/NA                    6       8       5       4       4       8       7       5
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Citizenship             29%     43%     41%     55%     46%     53%     45%
Temporary workers       36      21      23      26      26      23      26
Deported                30      30      30      13      21      21      23
DK/NA                    5       6       5       7       6       4       7
 
 
16. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Right thing             26%     57%      6%     29%     29%     23%     31%      6%
Wrong thing             69      35      90      67      68      70      64      89
DK/NA                    5       8       4       4       4       7       5       4
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Right thing             23%     31%     30%     18%     28%     27%     25%
Wrong thing             73      61      63      77      68      67      70
DK/NA                    3       7       7       5       4       6       4
 
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Mar 21  Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14  Oct 5   May 18  Mar 30
                        2008    2007    2007    2007    2006    2006    2006
 
Right thing             26      30      31      30      30      27      34
Wrong thing             69      65      64      66      63      67      61
DK/NA                    5       5       5       5       7       6       6
 
 
17. What should the United States do in Iraq? A) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR B) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR C) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Withdraw all troops     23%      7%     34%     20%     20%     26%     18%     37%
Set a timetable         49      39      55      52      44      54      50      54
Keep troops as needed   25      52       9      24      33      18      28       7
DK/NA                    3       1       2       4       2       3       3       2
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Withdraw all troops     19%     19%     19%     28%     22%     25%     22%
Set a timetable         58      48      50      49      50      49      49
Keep troops as needed   19      30      28      20      27      23      26
DK/NA                    3       3       3       3       1       2       2
 
 
18. How worried are you that there will be another major terrorist attack in the United States? Very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Very worried            23%     30%     22%     20%     18%     27%     22%     26%
Smwht worried           47      50      43      51      47      47      50      37
Not too worried         19      14      24      18      20      18      20      19
Not at all worried      10       5      11      10      13       7       7      18
DK/NA                    1       1       1       1       2       1       1       1
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Very worried            24%     20%     21%     26%     23%     21%     24%
Smwht worried           37      53      51      45      43      43      50
Not too worried         31      18      20      19      19      23      17
Not at all worried       7       8       8      10      13      13       8
DK/NA                    -       2       1       1       2       1       1
 
 
19. (If registered Democrat) Some people have suggested that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton should run together in the general election for President in November. It could be a Clinton-Obama ticket, with Clinton running for President and Obama for Vice-President, or it could be an Obama-Clinton ticket, with Obama running for President and Clinton for Vice-President. Which would you rather see - A Clinton-Obama ticket or an Obama-Clinton ticket, or would you rather they not run together?
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS...............
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Clinton-Obama ticket    32%     24%     37%     36%     22%
Obama-Clinton ticket    21      24      20      13      39
Not run together        39      44      35      44      29
DK/NA                    8       9       7       7      10
 
                        UpState                 Age     Age
                        Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Clinton-Obama ticket    37%     27%     36%     34%     32%
Obama-Clinton ticket    22      22      20      28      18
Not run together        34      41      41      34      40
DK/NA                    8      10       3       4      11