May 13, 2009 - New York Gov. Paterson Gets Low Scores From All Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Giuliani Narrows Gap With Cuomo In Governor's Race

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New York Gov. David Paterson's approval rating is hovering at historic lows, with a disapproval of 61 - 28 percent among all voters, including 49 - 37 percent among black voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a Democratic primary for the 2010 Governor's race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Gov. Paterson 62 - 17 percent, including 48 - 26 percent among blacks, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University poll of more than 2,800 New York State voters finds.

Paterson's 61 - 28 percent disapproval compares to a 60 - 28 percent disapproval April 6, the lowest ever for a New York State Governor.

In the latest survey, white voters disapprove 66 - 24 percent and Hispanic voters disapprove 47 - 43 percent.

In contrast, voters approve 68 - 12 percent of the job Attorney General Cuomo is doing, with approval ratings of 78 - 8 percent among black voters, 68 - 12 percent among white voters and 63 - 12 percent among Hispanics. Even Republicans approve 55 - 22 percent.

"Black New Yorkers give the black Governor a negative job approval rating, not as bad as his overall rating but still on the downside," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"With support in every demographic sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black voters, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary. Paterson has time to turn things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there's not a hint of good news for him in this poll."

In an early look at the 2010 Governor's race, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Paterson 54 - 32 percent. Giuliani leads 86 - 6 percent among Republicans and 60 - 21 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Paterson 56 - 30 percent. Giuliani leads 62 - 25 percent among white voters and 51 - 42 percent among Hispanics, while black voters back Paterson 64 - 18 percent.

Cuomo-Giuliani

Cuomo leads Giuliani 47 - 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup, down from a 53 - 36 percent lead April 6. Independent voters have shifted from 49 - 38 percent for Cuomo April 8 to 44 - 40 percent for Giuliani today. In this latest survey, Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans while Democrats back Cuomo 78 - 16 percent. Cuomo leads 76 - 13 percent among black voters and 52 - 40 percent among Hispanics, as white voters go to Giuliani 47 - 42 percent.

"If the Republicans nominate Mayor Giuliani, he beats Paterson by a lot. Cuomo beats Giuliani but that lead is shrinking as independent voters shift to the Republican. That's a trend to watch," Carroll said.

New York State voters say 64 - 21 percent, including 46 - 33 percent among black voters, that Paterson does not deserve to be reelected.

A total of 33 percent of voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that Paterson will run next year for a full four-year term as Governor, while 62 percent say it is "not too likely" or "not likely at all."

If Paterson runs, it will be bad for other Democrats running in the state, voters say 48 - 29 percent. Black voters split 40 - 39 percent on this question.

"A lot of politicians think that the torrent of bad news will persuade Paterson not to run. Voters think so, too," Carroll said.

"If the Governor does what he says he will, and runs in 2010, voters think he'll be bad news for other Democrats on the ballot."

From May 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,828 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,238 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS................
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    
 
Paterson             17%    17%    18%    12%    26%    
Cuomo                62     60     64     70     48     
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      2     
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      1     
DK/NA                18     20     17     17     23     
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             17      18      23
Cuomo                62      61      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       3       1
DK/NA                18      17      20
 
 
2. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Paterson           32%     6%    56%    21%    32%    32%    25%    64%    42%
Giuliani           54     86     30     60     55     53     62     18     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)     3      2      2      5      3      3      3      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)    3      1      4      3      3      3      3      5      5
DK/NA               8      5      7     10      6     10      8     10      3
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson           32%    24%    25%    44%    25%
Giuliani           52     60     58     45     60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)     2      3      3      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)    4      3      3      3      4
DK/NA              10     10     10      5      9
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17
                   2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson           32      32      43
Giuliani           54      53      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)     3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)    3       4       2
DK/NA               8       9      10
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Cuomo              47%     9%    78%    40%    44%    50%    42%    76%    52%
Giuliani           41     80     16     44     45     38     47     13     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)     1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)    1      -      1      2      1      1      1      2      4
DK/NA               9      9      5     13      8     11      9      8      4
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo              48%    41%    42%    57%    41%
Giuliani           37     46     44     34     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)     3      2      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)    3      1      1      1      -
DK/NA               9     11     10      7     11
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17
                   2009    2009    2009
 
Cuomo              47      53      51
Giuliani           41      36      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)     1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)    1       2       2
DK/NA               9       9       9
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable          51%    32%    66%    49%    48%    53%    48%    70%    45%
Unfavorable        13     24      4     11     18      8     15      2     10
Hvn't hrd enough   34     42     28     37     31     37     35     28     43
REFUSED             2      2      1      3      2      2      2      -      1
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable          55%    44%    46%    57%    51%
Unfavorable         8     15     14      9     17
Hvn't hrd enough   37     39     39     32     29
REFUSED             -      2      2      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23
                   2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable          51      63      63      57      55
Unfavorable        13      17      15      10      11
Hvn't hrd enough   34      18      20      32      32
REFUSED             2       2       2       2       2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable          24%    17%    33%    20%    26%    22%    20%    38%    35%
Unfavorable        55     66     44     57     56     54     60     36     39
Hvn't hrd enough   18     15     20     19     15     21     16     22     25
REFUSED             3      2      3      3      3      3      3      3      -
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable          27%    22%    22%    29%    21%
Unfavorable        54     60     59     47     58
Hvn't hrd enough   18     16     16     21     18
REFUSED             1      3      3      3      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 26
                   2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable          24      27      41      48
Unfavorable        55      55      35      25
Hvn't hrd enough   18      14      20      24
REFUSED             3       4       4       3
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable          56%    85%    35%    62%    57%    55%    62%    23%    53%
Unfavorable        32      5     52     26     32     32     25     68     34
Hvn't hrd enough   10      9     10     10      9     10     11      8      9
REFUSED             2      2      3      2      2      2      2      1      3
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable          61%    58%    58%    48%    62%
Unfavorable        19     23     23     45     30
Hvn't hrd enough   18     16     17      4      6
REFUSED             1      2      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?(*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007 )
                                                           FAVORABLE.....
                                                           High    Low
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Dec 17  Oct 3   May 13  Dec 17
                   2009    2009    2009    2007    2007    2009*   2007
 
Favorable          56      55      56      41      55      56      41
Unfavorable        32      35      35      40      38      32      40
Hvn't hrd enough   10       7       7      16       5      10      16
REFUSED             2       4       2       3       2       2       3
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve            28%    20%    35%    27%    30%    26%    24%    37%    43%
Disapprove         61     73     54     62     61     61     66     49     47
DK/NA              10      7     11     11      8     12     10     14     10
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve            27%    26%    26%    33%    26%
Disapprove         65     65     65     56     62
DK/NA               7      9      9     11     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 28% Apr 2009)
                                                           APPROVE.......
                                                           High    Low
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 26  Jan 15  Aug 06  May 13
                   2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009*
 
Approve            28      28      45      50      53      64      28
Disapprove         61      60      41      30	   25      14      61
DK/NA              10      13      14      20	   22      22      10
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve            68%    55%    79%    69%    68%    68%    68%    78%    63%
Disapprove         12     22      5     10     15      8     12      8     12
DK/NA              20     22     16     21     17     23     20     14     25
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve            68%    67%    67%    69%    70%
Disapprove          8     12     11     12     13
DK/NA              24     21     22     20     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                           APPROVE.......
                                                           High    Low
                   May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23  Feb 17  Feb 13
                   2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009    2007
 
Approve            68      75      76      69      72      76      42
Disapprove         12      14      11      16      14      11      16
DK/NA              20      11      13      15      14      13      42
 
 
9. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Yes/Deserves       21%    12%    28%    19%    22%    20%    17%    33%    31%
No/Does not        64     75     56     67     64     64     69     46     50
DK/NA              15     14     16     14     13     16     13     21     19
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes/Deserves       22%    19%    20%    24%    18%
No/Does not        64     67     67     59     68
DK/NA              14     14     14     17     15
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                   May 13  Apr 06
                   2009    2009
 
Yes/Deserves       21      22
No/Does Not        64      63
DK/NA              15      16
 
 
10. Governor Paterson says he'll run for governor in 2010. How likely do you think it is that he would win - very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Very likely         5%     4%     7%     5%     5%     6%     3%    17%     9%
Smwht likely       28     24     34     25     26     30     26     30     32
Not too likely     33     29     34     37     32     34     35     28     32
Not likely at all  29     39     21     30     33     26     32     18     23
DK/NA               4      3      4      3      4      5      4      6      4
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Very likely        10%     3%     4%     7%     5%
Smwht likely       25     27     27     31     25
Not too likely     32     32     32     32     37
Not likely at all  28     33     32     25     30
DK/NA               5      5      5      5      3
 
 
11. Do you think Governor Paterson running for governor in 2010 would be good or bad for other Democrats running for election in New York State?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Good               29%    24%    37%    25%    28%    30%    26%    40%    40%
Bad                48     53     45     50     52     46     52     39     39
DK/NA              22     23     18     25     20     24     22     21     22
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Good               33%    25%    26%    35%    26%
Bad                49     52     51     44     49
DK/NA              18     23     22     21     25
 
 
12. Democrats took control of the state senate this year for the first time in decades. Would you like to see them continue control in 2010?
                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Yes                56%    10%    93%    46%    50%    61%    46%    92%    75%
No                 35     82      4     37     42     29     43      6     16
DK/NA               9      8      4     17      8     10     11      2      9
 
                   UpState.....  UpState
                   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                52%    47%    48%    71%    47%
No                 35     41     40     21     45
DK/NA              13     12     12      7      7