August 16, 2009 - Cuomo Tops Paterson 4 - 1 In New York Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor's Approval Up Slightly

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New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads Gov. David Paterson 61 - 15 percent among Democrats in a primary contest for the 2010 governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 57 - 20 percent Cuomo lead in a June 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest poll, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Gov. Paterson 53 - 33 percent in a 2010 general election, while Cuomo tops Giuliani 48 - 39 percent.

In the Cuomo-Giuliani matchup, independent voters split 43 - 43 percent, while Republicans go to the former mayor 82 - 9 percent. Democrats back Cuomo 76 - 12 percent. White voters split with 46 percent for Giuliani and 44 percent for Cuomo, while black voters go Democratic 85 - 5 percent.

New York State voters disapprove 59 - 30 percent of the job Paterson is doing, a slight improvement on his 61 - 28 percent disapproval in May 13 and June 24 surveys, his lowest scores ever. This is the first uptick in Paterson's approval in months.

"Pols and pollsters never say never. But it's sure getting hard to stay even-handed about Gov. David Paterson vs. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. The question is: How one-sided can it get? " said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Voters disagree 49 - 37 percent with the argument that a Democratic primary is divisive and helps the Republicans. And black support for Cuomo, even against Paterson, seems to be strong.

"Suburbia likes Giuliani, giving him a five-point edge, but Cuomo is up 22 points in the former mayor's home town."

New York State voters give Gov. Paterson a negative 26 - 53 percent favorability, but black voters give him a positive 49 - 37 percent rating. Cuomo gets a 52 - 12 percent favorability, including 62 - 2 percent among blacks. Giuliani gets a 53 - 33 percent positive score.

Cuomo also gets a 74 - 10 percent approval rating. This is the fourth Quinnipiac University poll since February 17 showing Cuomo's job approval over 70 percent.

"Cuomo's job approval rating is stratospheric and a plus 64 points to Paterson's minus 29 points," Carroll said.

President Obama's Approval

New York State voters approve 60 - 35 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from 67 - 26 percent June 24. In today's survey, Obama wins 92 - 7 percent approval from Democrats and 50 - 42 percent support from independent voters, while Republicans turn thumbs down 73 - 20 percent.

Voters approve 58 - 38 percent of the way President Obama is handling the economy and say 55 - 29 percent that his policies will help the economy.

By a smaller 37 - 32 percent margin, voters expect Obama's policies will improve their personal financial situation, while 28 percent say they will make no difference.

"President Barack Obama is losing support in every state we poll, including true-blue New York. Of course he started from a much higher base in New York," Carroll said.

Sen. Charles Schumer has a 58 - 27 percent approval, his lowest overall approval score since a 58 - 28 percent rating January 20, 2006.

Junior Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a 33 - 19 percent approval rating, with 48 percent undecided. This compares to a 37 - 15 percent job approval rating, also with 48 percent undecided, June 24.

From August 10 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,667 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 708 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRAT............
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Paterson             15%    17%    14%    14%    24%
Cuomo                61     58     62     69     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                22     22     23     15     31
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRAT...................
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             15      20      17      18      23
Cuomo                61      57      62      61      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       1       3       1
DK/NA                22      20      18      17      20
 
 
2. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Paterson             33%     4%    62%    21%    31%    35%    25%    69%
Giuliani             53     90     26     60     57     50     60     19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      4      2      2      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      3      6      3      4      4      3
DK/NA                 8      5      8     10      7      9      8      9
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson             31%    23%    24%    47%    25%
Giuliani             50     60     58     41     64
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      8      4      4      4      2
DK/NA                 9     10     10      7      8
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             33      34      32      32      43
Giuliani             53      52      54      53      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4       3       4       2
DK/NA                 8       7       8       9      10
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Cuomo                48%     9%    76%    43%    43%    53%    44%    85%
Giuliani             39     82     12     43     44     35     46      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      2      2      1      1      2
DK/NA                10      7      9     12     10     10      8      7
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                60%    44%    46%    55%    41%
Giuliani             29     43     41     33     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      2      -
DK/NA                10     10     10      9     12
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Cuomo                48      51      47      53      51
Giuliani             39      39      41      36      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       1       2       2
DK/NA                10       8       9       9       9
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            52%    41%    65%    45%    48%    55%    51%    62%
Unfavorable          12     21      4     14     16      9     14      2
Hvn't hrd enough     34     35     29     38     34     33     33     32
REFUSED               2      3      2      3      2      3      2      4
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            53%    48%    48%    55%    53%
Unfavorable           9     13     12     10     17
Hvn't hrd enough     37     38     38     33     27
REFUSED               1      1      1      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            52      63      51      63      63      57      55
Unfavorable          12      15      13      17      15      10      11
Hvn't hrd enough     34      20      34      18      20      32      32
REFUSED               2       2       2       2       2       2       2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            26%    12%    40%    21%    25%    27%    22%    49%
Unfavorable          53     67     38     59     54     51     58     37
Hvn't hrd enough     18     19     19     17     18     18     17     12
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      4      4      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            25%    21%    21%    32%    25%
Unfavorable          53     62     61     43     54
Hvn't hrd enough     19     14     14     23     17
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            26      28      24      27      41      48
Unfavorable          53      54      55      55      35      25
Hvn't hrd enough     18      14      18      14      20      24
REFUSED               3       4       3       4       4       3
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            53%    86%    31%    58%    56%    50%    59%    21%
Unfavorable          33      3     52     31     32     34     27     65
Hvn't hrd enough     11      8     14      7      9     12     10     11
REFUSED               4      3      3      3      4      4      4      3
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            56%    55%    55%    44%    64%
Unfavorable          31     24     25     45     28
Hvn't hrd enough     13     17     16      8      6
REFUSED               -      5      4      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17  May 13  Dec 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*   2007
 
Favorable            53      55      56      55      56      56      41
Unfavorable          33      36      32      35      35      32      40
Hvn't hrd enough     11       6      10       7       7      10      16
REFUSED               4       3       2       4       2       2       3
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              30%    18%    43%    24%    30%    29%    25%    44%
Disapprove           59     70     43     66     60     57     63     47
DK/NA                12     12     14     10     10     14     12      9
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              26%    23%    23%    36%    32%
Disapprove           68     66     66     49     59
DK/NA                 6     11     10     15      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor? (*Low App also 28% Apr 2009 & May 13 2009 / ** High Dis also 61% May 13 2009)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Aug 6   Jun 24  Jun 24
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009*   2009**
 
Approve              30      28      28      28      64      28      28
Disapprove           59      61      61      60      14      61      61
DK/NA                12      12      10      13      22      12      12
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              33%    23%    44%    27%    35%    30%    29%    50%
Disapprove           19     28     13     21     21     17     20     14
DK/NA                48     50     44     52     43     53     50     37
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              37%    35%    35%    34%    27%
Disapprove           18     18     18     18     23
DK/NA                46     47     47     49     51
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              33      37      33      28
Disapprove           19      15      13      10
DK/NA                48      48      54      62
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              58%    39%    79%    47%    52%    64%    55%    79%
Disapprove           27     46      9     35     34     21     30      7
DK/NA                15     15     12     18     14     15     15     14
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              54%    51%    51%    65%    58%
Disapprove           31     29     29     20     34
DK/NA                15     20     19     14      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 17  Dec 8   Apr 15  Jan 20
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2004*   1999    2006
 
Approve              58      63      61      64      69      51      58
Disapprove           27      23      25      24      16      22      28
DK/NA                15      14      14      12      15      28      14
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              60%    20%    92%    50%    55%    64%    51%    96%
Disapprove           35     73      7     42     40     30     43      3
DK/NA                 6      8      1      8      6      5      6      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              65%    54%    56%    73%    45%
Disapprove           29     40     38     22     49
DK/NA                 6      6      6      5      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 19
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              60      67      71      72
Disapprove           35      26      21      17
DK/NA                 6       7       7      10
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              74%    64%    83%    71%    74%    73%    72%    81%
Disapprove           10     18      7      7     11      8     10     10
DK/NA                17     18     10     22     15     18     18      9
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              66%    72%    72%    76%    73%
Disapprove           13      9      9      9     10
DK/NA                22     19     19     15     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17  Feb 13  Jul 31
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2007
 
Approve              74      73      68      75      76      42      68
Disapprove           10      12      12      14      11      16      19
DK/NA                17      14      20      11      13      42      24
 
 
15. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         20%    11%    30%    17%    20%    21%    17%    34%
No/Does not          67     77     57     69     67     66     70     53
DK/NA                13     12     13     14     13     13     13     14
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes/Deserves         20%    19%    19%    25%    15%
No/Does not          70     69     69     60     72
DK/NA                10     12     11     15     13
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Yes/Deserves         20      22      21      22
No/Does not          67      64      64      63
DK/NA                13      13      15      16
 
 
16. Some people say that a Democratic primary for governor would be divisive and help the Republicans in the general election for governor. Do you agree or disagree?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Agree                37%    38%    38%    35%    35%    38%    35%    39%
Disagree             49     43     52     50     53     44     49     52
DK/NA                14     20     10     15     11     17     17      9
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Agree                34%    36%    36%    37%    39%
Disagree             52     46     47     51     47
DK/NA                14     18     17     11     14
 
 
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              58%    21%    89%    49%    54%    62%    49%    95%
Disapprove           38     78      9     44     43     33     46      3
DK/NA                 4      1      2      7      3      6      5      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              64%    51%    53%    72%    45%
Disapprove           33     43     41     25     52
DK/NA                 3      6      6      3      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
                     Aug 16  Apr 7   Feb 19
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              58      67      66
Disapprove           38      25      22
DK/NA                 4       8      13
 
 
27. Do you think President Obama's policies have helped the economy, hurt the economy, or haven't made a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Helped               47%    18%    75%    37%    46%    48%    39%    84%
Hurt                 19     40      4     21     24     14     24      -
No difference        30     39     19     35     26     34     33     16
DK/NA                 4      3      2      6      3      4      4      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Helped               49%    40%    41%    59%    39%
Hurt                 18     24     23     11     24
No difference        31     32     32     26     33
DK/NA                 2      4      4      4      3
 
 
28. Looking forward, do you think President Obama's policies will help the economy, will hurt the economy, or won't make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Will help            55%    16%    88%    46%    51%    60%    47%    93%
Will hurt            29     65      4     35     36     23     36      3
No difference        12     17      6     13     10     13     14      2
DK/NA                 4      2      2      6      3      5      3      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Will help            63%    48%    50%    69%    43%
Will hurt            22     34     32     19     41
No difference        13     13     13     10     13
DK/NA                 2      5      4      3      4
 
 
29. Do you think President Obama's policies have helped your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or haven't made a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Helped               19%     4%    33%    12%    20%    17%    13%    46%
Hurt                 18     37      3     22     22     15     21      -
No difference        63     59     64     65     58     68     66     54
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Helped               17%    15%    16%    26%    12%
Hurt                 24     21     21     14     19
No difference        58     63     63     60     68
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1
 
 
30. Looking forward, do you think President Obama's policies will help your personal financial situation, will hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Will help            37%     9%    63%    27%    36%    38%    28%    81%
Will hurt            32     60      8     41     37     26     39      -
No difference        28     28     26     27     24     31     29     17
DK/NA                 4      2      3      5      2      5      4      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Will help            37%    31%    32%    48%    28%
Will hurt            27     36     35     20     46
No difference        32     29     29     29     22
DK/NA                 4      4      4      4      3