September 2, 2010 - Lazio Up 12 Pts. In New York GOP Primary For Governor, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dems Still Don't Know Who's Running For Attorney General

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Former Congressman Rick Lazio leads businessman Carl Paladino 47 - 35 percent among New York State Republican likely primary voters in the race for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 18 percent of Republican voters remain undecided and 49 percent of those who do name a candidate say they might change their mind before the September 14 primary.

Paladino's support looks a little stronger as 62 percent of his voters say their mind is made up, compared to 42 percent of Lazio backers, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

There is a significant gender gap as Lazio leads 51 - 26 percent among Republican women and only 44 - 42 percent among men.

By a 58 - 14 percent margin, Republican likely primary voters have a favorable opinion of Lazio, while 26 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Paladino gets a 45 - 6 percent favorability, with 47 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

"With many of his supporters open to changing their minds, Rick Lazio has a shaky lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The people who like Carl Paladino are more likely than Lazio's voters to have made up their minds to stick with him. But an awful lot of voters don't know much about him. Can he convince enough voters that he's the Republican to run against Andrew Cuomo with a big TV blitz in the next two weeks? We'll have to wait and see."

In the Republican primary to face U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, 49 percent of likely voters are undecided, while 28 percent back former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi, followed by 12 percent for David Malpass and 10 percent for Bruce Blakeman. And 67 percent of those who do name a candidate say they might change their mind.

The "don't know enough" factor for each of the candidates ranges from 65 percent to 76 percent, and this is among Republican likely primary voters.

"Joseph DioGuardi? David Malpass? Bruce Blakeman? Flip a coin. Most voters don't know much about any of them. The impossible-to-predict spillover from people who go out to vote for governor or in other primaries will make the difference, and there's no way on earth of foreseeing what that will be," Carroll added. Democratic Primary for Attorney General

When registered Democrats were asked in an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, for whom they would vote in the primary for Attorney General:
  • 77 percent don't know;
  • 8 percent name someone who is not on the ballot;
  • 4 percent name Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice;
  • 3 percent name State Sen. Eric Schneiderman;
  • 1 percent name State Assembly Member Richard Brodsky;
  • 1 percent name attorney Sean Coffey.
These results are little changed from a July 28 survey when 81 percent of Democrats could not name a candidate.

"The five-candidate Democratic primary for attorney general is still way up in the air. It's a big job, folks. Look what happened to the last New York State attorneys general. But only 9 percent of Democrats have named a candidate who is on the ballot," Carroll said.

From August 23 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 359 New York State Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points and 866 New York State registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If registered Democrat) As you may know, there is a Democratic primary for State Attorney General in New York this year. Do you know who you will vote for? (If YES) Who?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
No/Don't Know        77%
Eric Schneiderman     3
Kathleen Rice         4
Richard Brodsky       1
Eric Dinallo          -
Sean Coffey           1
Yes/Any Other Name    8
WLDN'T VOTE           2
Refused               5
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) As you may know, there is a Democratic primary for? (If YES) Who?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
                     Sep 02  Jul 28
                     2010    2010
No/Don't Know        77      81
Eric Schneiderman     3       -
Kathleen Rice         4       2
Richard Brodsky       1       -
Eric Dinallo          -       1
Sean Coffey           1       -
Yes/Any Other Name    8       9
WLDN'T VOTE           2       2
Refused               5       6
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Rick Lazio or Carl Paladino? (If undecided q2) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Lazio or Paladino? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Lazio                47%    44%    51%
Paladino             35     42     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                18     15     23
 
 
2a. (If express choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                            CAND CHOICE Q2....
                     Tot    RL     CP
Made up              51%    42%    62%
Might change         49     58     37
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
3. (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for David Malpass, Bruce Blakeman, or Joe DioGuardi? (If undecided q3) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malpass, Blakeman or DioGuardi? (This table includes "Leaners".)
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Malpass              12%    17%     7%
Blakeman             10     13      7
DioGuardi            28     31     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                49     39     61
 
 
3a. (If express choice q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot
Made up              33%
Might change         67
DK/NA                 -
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            58%    62%    52%
Unfavorable          14     16     10
Hvn't hrd enough     26     17     37
REFUSED               3      5      1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            45%    56%    32%
Unfavorable           6      6      5
Hvn't hrd enough     47     36     61
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of - Bruce Blakeman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            18%    21%    16%
Unfavorable           2      3      1
Hvn't hrd enough     76     72     82
REFUSED               3      5      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of - David Malpass favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            21%    28%    11%
Unfavorable           1      2      -
Hvn't hrd enough     75     65     86
REFUSED               4      5      2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom
Favorable            31%    41%    20%
Unfavorable           2      3      1
Hvn't hrd enough     65     54     79
REFUSED               2      2      1