February 13, 2003 - Hillary Clinton Leads Dem Pack In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Unnamed Democrat Tops Bush In New York
If Sen. Hillary Clinton decides to run for President in 2004, 50 percent of New York Democrats would back her move, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Clinton's nearest rival in the survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University is Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, the Democratic candidate for Vice President in 2000, with 15 percent; followed by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 9 percent; Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, with 5 percent each, and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Rev. Al Sharpton, with 3 percent each.

Without Clinton, Lieberman gets 27 percent, with 17 percent for Kerry, 16 percent for Sharpton, 12 percent for Gephardt, 9 percent for Edwards and 4 percent for Dean.

By a 54 - 36 percent margin, New York State voters say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate rather than President George W. Bush in 2004. Republicans back Bush 80 - 12 percent, while Democrats line up for their unnamed candidate 85 - 9 percent and independent voters go with the Democrats 49 - 35 percent.

"Sen. Hillary Clinton sweeps the field, lining up more Democratic support for a possible presidential run than all the other candidates combined," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"New York's own, the Rev. Al Sharpton, was a distant also ran in a Quinnipiac University poll of voters nationwide, and he doesn't do well with Sen. Clinton in the mix. But with Clinton out of the race, Rev. Sharpton runs well in New York," Carroll added.

"Our Connecticut neighbor, Sen. Lieberman, goes to the head of the line with New York Dems, if Clinton drops out."

In a February 6 Quinnipiac University poll of voters nationwide, 42 percent of Democrats listed Clinton as their first choice for the Presidential nomination. With Clinton out of the race, Lieberman led the Democratic pack with 27 percent.

New Yorkers approve 50 - 44 percent of the job President Bush is doing, compared to a 51 - 42 percent approval in a December 19, 2002, Quinnipiac University poll.

"President Bush is back to his pre-September 11 polling numbers. New Yorkers are no more inclined to vote for Bush in 2004 than they were in 2000," Carroll said.

From February 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,141 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey includes 449 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                    App     Dis     DK/NA


February 13, 2003 50% 44% 5% December 18, 2002 51 42 7 September 26, 2002 58 36 6 July 3, 2002 64 28 8 May 1, 2002 69 25 6 April 22, 2002 68 27 5 February 27, 2002 74 20 6 January 25, 2002 80 16 4 November 14, 2001 82 15 3 October 2, 2001 82 14 4 June 28, 2001 44 47 9 April 26, 2001 50 40 10 March 28, 2001 48 38 15 February 14, 2001 45 30 24



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 50% 86% 29% 48% 57% 45% 51% Disapprove 44 12 66 43 39 49 45 DK/NA 5 2 5 8 4 6 4

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 54% 59% 58% 39% 55% Disapprove 40 35 36 56 41 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 5



7. Now I'm going to name six Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all six names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean or the Reverend Al Sharpton?

                    Democrats
Lieberman           27%
Kerry               17 
Gephardt            12 
Edwards              9 
Dean                 4 
Sharpton            16 
DK/NA               15 




8. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in
2004? New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, ... or the Reverend Al Sharpton?                        


Democrats Clinton 50% Lieberman 15 Kerry 9 Gephardt 5 Edwards 5 Dean 3 Sharpton 3 DK/NA 9



9. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?

                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Bush 36% 80% 9% 35% 43% 30% 36% Democrat 54 12 85 49 49 59 55 OTHER(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 3 DK/NA 8 7 5 13 7 9 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Bush 48% 46% 47% 23% 39% Democrat 45 44 44 69 48 OTHER(VOL) 1 1 1 2 3 DK/NA 6 9 8 7 10