April 24, 2003 - Bush Edges Clinton, Tops All Comers In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Most Voters Say She Should Stay In The Senate
If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton challenged President George W. Bush in 2004, the not-so-native daughter would be on the short side of a 47 - 44 percent split among New York voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Clinton has a 52 - 36 percent approval rating and New York voters say 59 - 37 percent that she should not run for President next year.

President Bush has a 58 - 37 percent approval in New York, up from 50 - 44 percent in a February 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

"That a president fresh off a wartime win would poll higher than most wannabes isn't surprising. What will surprise many is that President Bush does so well against Sen. Clinton," said Maurice Carroll director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In 2000, Bush was so far behind in New York, he didn't even bother to campaign here.

"Meanwhile, New Yorkers want Hillary to stay home. They'd rather have her call Chappaqua home than to try going back to Pennsylvania Avenue."

Bush is ahead of other leaders in the Democratic Presidential pack:
  • 50 - 38 percent over Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman;
  • 50 - 38 percent over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry;
  • 49 - 38 percent over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt.
As a result of the war in Iraq, 31 percent of New York State voters say they are more likely to vote for Bush for reelection, with 28 percent saying they are less likely and 38 percent saying their position hasn't changed.

New York's senior Senator, Charles Schumer, has a 59 - 22 percent approval rating, including 54 - 31 percent among Republicans.

From April 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 885 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 59% 54% 66% 57% 58% 60% 64% Disapprove 22 31 16 23 26 18 25 DK/NA 19 15 17 20 16 21 11

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 51% 58% 56% 63% 59% Disapprove 27 20 21 22 23 DK/NA 22 23 22 15 17



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 52% 31% 72% 46% 50% 54% 53% Disapprove 36 61 18 42 41 32 35 DK/NA 12 8 11 12 9 14 12

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 42% 49% 48% 59% 48% Disapprove 47 40 42 28 40 DK/NA 11 10 10 13 11



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 58% 91% 38% 56% 60% 57% 59% Disapprove 37 7 56 40 35 39 38 DK/NA 4 1 5 4 4 4 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Approve 68% 65% 66% 46% 66% Disapprove 27 32 31 50 29 DK/NA 5 3 3 5 5



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 44% 7% 72% 39% 37% 50% 47% Bush 47 90 16 49 52 42 44

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 6 5 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Clinton 26% 34% 33% 61% 35% Bush 63 55 57 29 58

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 7 7 5 4



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Lieberman 38% 6% 66% 34% 34% 41% 45% Bush 50 88 23 47 54 46 43

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 5 4 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 2 2 4 DK/NA 8 5 5 11 6 10 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Lieberman 21% 28% 26% 54% 33% Bush 68 56 59 35 57

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 3 3 DK/NA 8 12 11 6 6



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Kerry 38% 4% 65% 35% 36% 40% 42% Bush 50 92 21 49 53 46 43

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 3 12 12 8 13 12

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Kerry 22% 28% 27% 55% 30% Bush 65 59 60 32 60

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 3 DK/NA 10 11 11 11 8



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Gephardt 38% 5% 67% 33% 37% 39% 42% Bush 49 90 20 48 52 46 45

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 3 10 11 7 11 10

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Gephardt 23% 27% 26% 53% 34% Bush 64 58 60 32 57

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 10 10 11 6



13. As a result of the war with Iraq, are you now more likely to support George W. Bush for a second term as President, less likely to support him for a second term, or hasn't the war changed your feeling on that?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


More likely 31% 54% 14% 30% 35% 26% 27% Less likely 28 7 40 32 25 30 33 Hasn't changed 38 37 39 37 34 40 40 DK/NA 4 2 7 1 5 3 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

More likely 27% 35% 33% 21% 42% Less likely 20 25 24 38 18 Hasn't changed 49 35 38 37 38 DK/NA 4 5 5 4 2



14. Would you like to see Hillary Rodham Clinton run for President in 2004 or not?
                                                                    Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 37% 11% 55% 32% 29% 43% 38% No 59 85 40 62 65 54 59 DK/NA 4 4 5 5 5 3 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr total NYC Sub

Yes 23% 29% 27% 51% 30% No 74 67 69 44 66 DK/NA 3 4 4 5 5