September 14, 2004 - Giuliani Is New York's Favorite Son For 2008, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Convention Helped New York City, Voters Say
By a 59 - 19 percent margin, New York State voters would prefer former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani over Gov. George Pataki as a 2008 presidential candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Republican voters prefer Mayor Giuliani over Gov. Pataki 71 - 21 percent, as Democrats go with the ex-mayor 48 - 21 percent, and independent voters back Giuliani 62 - 17 percent.

In a hypothetical all-New York 2008 presidential matchup:
  • Giuliani beats Sen. Hillary Clinton running as a Democrat 50 - 43 percent;
  • Sen. Clinton beats Pataki 51 - 41 percent.
In a convention bounce for Pataki, New York State voters approve 49 - 35 percent of the job he is doing as Governor, up from a 44 - 43 percent split in an August 11 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

"In a long look at the presidential politics of 2008, America's Mayor, Rudolph Giuliani, trounces New York's Governor, George Pataki, even thought they both starred at the Republican Convention," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In this 2008 star-gazing, New York's Favorite Daughter, Sen. Hillary Clinton, would beat Gov. Pataki in New York State, but lose to Mayor Giuliani."

"Obviously, we're not considering the impact of the 2004 presidential election and 2006 New York Senate and governor's races in this exercise," Carroll added.

"And speaking of the Governor: The late state budget and the still-undetonated school aid bombshell have been eclipsed by the recent Republican Convention, giving Pataki's job approval numbers a lift," Carroll added.

By a 61 - 15 percent margin, New York State voters say the Republican Convention helped rather than hurt New York City, as 14 percent say it made no difference.

New York City did an 'excellent' job managing the convention, 37 percent of voters statewide say, as 42 percent say 'good' and 14 percent say 'not so good' or 'poor.' The biggest boosters are from the suburbs, where 47 percent of voters say 'excellent' and 33 percent say 'good.' Among New York City voters, 36 percent say 'excellent' and 42 percent say 'good.'

New York City should host another national convention, 54 percent of voters statewide say.

Senate Race

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Charles Schumer leads Republican challenger Howard Mills 61 - 13 percent, with 9 percent for Conservative Party candidate Marilyn O'Grady, virtually unchanged from August 12.

Voters approve 63 - 21 percent of the job Schumer is doing.

"The challengers have been unable to slow the Schumer juggernaut. Watch for Republicans to make an extra push in this race, not to beat Schumer but to avoid losing to Conservative Party candidate Marilyn O'Grady," Carroll said.

From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,438 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 49 35 15 Aug 11, 2004 44 43 13 Jun 16, 2004 47 41 12 Apr 14, 2004 49 36 15 Nov 6, 2003 52 36 12 Oct 2, 2003 46 42 12 Jun 25, 2003 43 45 11 Apr 23, 2003 43 45 12 Feb 12, 2003 49 41 10 Dec 19, 2002 58 31 11 Sep 25, 2002 62 26 12 Jul 2, 2002 66 18 17 May 1, 2002 67 19 14 Apr 18, 2002 66 19 15 Feb 27, 2002 70 18 13 Jan 23, 2002 70 16 14 Nov 14, 2001 78 12 10 Oct 2, 2001 81 12 7 Jun 26, 2001 56 30 14 Apr 24, 2001 58 27 15 Mar 28, 2001 61 24 16 Feb 14, 2001 57 28 15 Dec 14, 2000 66 23 11 Aug 10, 2000 61 24 15 Jul 13, 2000 60 27 12 Jun 7, 2000 62 25 13 May 16, 2000 63 27 10 May 2, 2000 58 29 12 Apr 6, 2000 56 31 13 Mar 2, 2000 57 31 12 Feb 10, 2000 57 32 12 Jan 20, 2000 60 29 11 Dec 14, 1999 60 29 11 Nov 11, 1999 60 29 12 Oct 5, 1999 57 31 11 Sep 15, 1999 60 27 12 Aug 2, 1999 56 34 10 Jul 1, 1999 54 35 11 May 24, 1999 58 32 10 Apr 25, 1999 57 31 12 Apr 15, 1999 59 31 10 Mar 24, 1999 60 30 11 Feb 24, 1999 60 27 13 Feb 4, 1999 64 27 8 Oct 28, 1998 64 25 11 Oct 15, 1998 63 26 11 Sep 27, 1998 62 26 11 Jun 17, 1998 64 29 7 Mar 25, 1998 69 24 7 Feb 25, 1998 70 22 8 Dec 10, 1997 62 30 7 Sep 24, 1997 60 35 6 Jul 22, 1997 52 41 7 Apr 24, 1997 54 35 11 Mar 4, 1997 56 34 10 Oct 30, 1996 53 31 16 Sep 22, 1996 51 35 14 Jun 18, 1996 46 45 9 Apr 28, 1996 48 40 12 Mar 4, 1996 47 41 12 Dec 11, 1995 46 40 14 Nov 6, 1995 42 41 18 Apr 27, 1995 41 40 20



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handlingits job?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA   


Sep 14, 2004 31 54 15 Aug 11, 2004 26 57 16 Jun 17, 2004 29 51 20 Jun 25, 2003 32 51 17

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA   


Sep 14, 2004 63 21 17 Aug 13, 2004 59 22 19 Jun 16, 2004 62 21 17 Apr 14, 2004 61 19 20 Nov 6, 2003 56 25 19 Oct 2, 2003 60 24 16 Jun 25, 2003 57 23 21 Apr 24, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 12, 2003 56 22 22 Dec 19, 2002 57 22 21 Sep 26, 2002 58 17 25 Jul 3, 2002 61 17 22 May 1, 2002 58 18 24 Apr 18, 2002 60 17 23 Feb 27, 2002 61 16 23 Jan 25, 2002 63 17 21 Nov 14, 2001 64 16 20 Oct 2, 2001 69 11 19 Jun 28, 2001 60 18 22 Apr 26, 2001 61 17 22 Mar 28, 2001 60 18 22 Feb 14, 2001 56 21 23 Dec 13, 2000 62 19 19 May 2, 2000 52 18 30 Nov 11, 1999 55 19 26 Sep 16, 1999 55 18 27 Apr 15, 1999 51 22 28 Mar 23, 1999 52 20 28



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 61 32 7 Aug 13, 2004 62 30 8 Jun 16, 2004 63 30 7 Apr 14, 2004 62 30 8 Nov 6, 2003 59 34 8 Oct 2, 2003 61 33 7 Jun 25, 2003 57 34 9 Apr 24, 2003 52 36 12 Feb 12, 2003 56 34 9 Dec 19, 2002 57 31 12 Sep 26, 2002 53 35 12 Jul 3, 2002 56 31 13 May 1, 2002 57 30 13 Apr 18, 2002 58 28 13 Feb 27, 2002 58 32 10 Jan 25, 2002 55 31 14 Nov 14, 2001 54 34 13 Oct 2, 2001 59 28 12 Jun 28, 2001 52 31 17 Apr 26, 2001 47 34 19 Mar 28, 2001 40 38 23 Feb 14, 2001 38 30 33



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 62 15 23 Aug 11, 2004 61 14 25 Jun 16, 2004 64 14 23 Apr 14, 2004 60 14 26 Nov 6, 2003 59 15 26 Oct 2, 2003 62 15 23 Jun 25,2003 57 14 29 Apr 23, 2003 59 14 27 Feb 12, 2003 60 13 27 Apr 6, 2000 51 14 35

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alan Hevesi is handling his job as State Comptroller?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 42 18 39 Aug 11, 2004 39 19 42 Jun 16, 2004 43 17 40 Nov 6, 2003 44 14 42 Oct 2, 2003 44 16 40 Jun 25, 2003 40 18 42 Apr 23, 2003 39 18 43 Feb 12,2003 40 14 46



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 29 33 38 Aug 11, 2004 26 33 41 Jun 17, 2004 30 31 38 Nov 6, 2003 32 29 39 Oct 2, 2003 35 26 39 Jun 25, 2003 33 25 42 Apr 23, 2003 33 27 40



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Bruno is handling his job as State Senate Majority Leader?
                           
                      App     Dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 30 30 40 Aug 11, 2004 27 32 41 Jun 17, 2004 29 32 40 Nov 6, 2003 33 25 42 Oct 2, 2003 36 25 39 Jun 25, 2003 32 25 43 Apr 23, 2003 30 27 43



TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat, Howard Mills the Republican, and Marilyn O'Grady the Conservative Party candidate for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                      CS      HM      MO      SmnEls  Wld'tVt DK/NA 


Sep 14, 2004 61 13 9 1 2 14 Aug 13, 2004 62 13 9 - 3 12 June 16, 2004 63 14 8 1 1 14 Apr 14, 2004 63 18 na 1 2 17



TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat
                           
                      Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
                      sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA


Sep 14, 2004 5 42 33 18 2 Aug 11, 2004 4 37 34 23 1 Jun 16, 2004 3 41 35 20 1 Apr 15,2004 4 42 32 21 1 Nov 6, 2003 4 42 30 23 1 Oct 2, 2003 5 39 32 24 1 Jun 25, 2003 4 33 37 25 1 Apr 23, 2003 5 32 32 29 2 Feb 12, 2003 4 40 33 22 1 Dec 19, 2002 7 44 27 21 - Sep 26, 2002 8 54 23 14 1 Jan 24, 2002 12 58 21 8 1 Dec 27, 2000 13 57 20 8 1 Mar 25, 1998 12 55 23 9 1 Feb 25, 1998 13 60 20 7 1 Dec 10, 1997 9 51 27 12 1



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 49% 71% 31% 51% 49% 50% 41% Disapprove 35 15 53 33 37 34 42 DK/NA 15 14 15 16 14 16 17

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 44% 49% 48% 46% 58% Disapprove 41 36 37 39 27 DK/NA 15 15 15 15 15



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 61% 32% 86% 57% 54% 67% 63% Disapprove 32 59 9 36 39 27 29 DK/NA 7 9 6 8 7 7 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 60% 50% 52% 72% 59% Disapprove 34 43 41 21 34 DK/NA 6 7 7 7 7



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 63% 56% 73% 57% 61% 64% 66% Disapprove 21 28 11 24 24 17 21 DK/NA 17 16 15 18 14 19 14

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 61% 56% 57% 66% 66% Disapprove 16 22 21 19 23 DK/NA 23 22 22 14 11



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 31% 41% 27% 28% 28% 33% 28% Disapprove 54 46 55 61 62 47 58 DK/NA 15 14 18 11 10 19 15

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 23% 24% 23% 34% 39% Disapprove 68 64 65 47 47 DK/NA 10 12 12 19 14



6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 62% 60% 63% 63% 65% 59% 69% Disapprove 15 18 12 13 18 11 13 DK/NA 23 22 25 23 16 29 19

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 62% 60% 60% 61% 66% Disapprove 10 15 14 17 12 DK/NA 28 25 25 22 22



7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alan Hevesi is handling his job as State Comptroller?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 42% 40% 48% 37% 45% 40% 49% Disapprove 18 18 17 22 20 17 17 DK/NA 39 42 35 41 35 43 34

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 34% 37% 36% 48% 43% Disapprove 18 17 17 19 19 DK/NA 48 46 46 32 38



8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Bruno is handling his job as State Senate Majority Leader?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 30% 33% 28% 31% 32% 29% 30% Disapprove 30 27 30 33 38 23 35 DK/NA 40 40 41 36 30 48 36

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 29% 29% 29% 28% 35% Disapprove 27 38 36 28 23 DK/NA 44 33 35 43 42



9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Approve 29% 26% 36% 21% 27% 30% 29% Disapprove 33 36 27 41 43 25 36 DK/NA 38 38 37 39 29 45 36

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 26% 27% 27% 32% 28% Disapprove 32 40 38 29 32 DK/NA 41 34 35 40 39



15. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


A lot 14% 12% 18% 9% 13% 15% 14% Some 27 27 28 25 25 28 26 Only a little 29 30 28 32 29 29 31 None at all 28 30 25 31 30 25 25 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 3 1 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

A lot 10% 12% 12% 16% 15% Some 30 27 28 28 23 Only a little 32 30 31 28 29 None at all 26 29 28 25 30 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2



16. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were -- Charles Schumer the Democrat, Howard Mills the Republican, and Marilyn O'Grady the Conservative Party candidate?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Schumer 61% 36% 87% 56% 59% 62% 68% Mills 13 33 1 12 15 12 9 O'Grady 9 12 2 11 11 7 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 14 17 7 18 12 16 12

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Schumer 58% 49% 51% 72% 61% Mills 13 19 18 7 15 O'Grady 8 10 10 7 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 19 18 18 12 10



21. Did you watch any of the republican convention on television?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 73% 78% 69% 75% 75% 71% 71% No 27 22 31 25 25 28 29 DK/NA - - - - - - -

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes 59% 67% 65% 79% 77% No 41 33 35 20 23 DK/NA - - - - -



23. How would you rate the job New York City did in managing the Republican convention? Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Excellent 37% 53% 25% 38% 39% 36% 37% Good 42 38 47 42 41 44 42 Not so good 10 3 15 8 10 9 10 Poor 4 1 6 6 6 3 5 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 5 8 6

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Excellent 31% 34% 34% 36% 47% Good 49 47 47 42 33 Not so good 4 7 6 12 11 Poor 3 2 2 6 6 DK/NA 14 10 11 4 4



24. Overall, do you think the republican convention helped or hurt New York City's image?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Helped 61% 77% 46% 63% 65% 57% 57% Hurt 15 6 23 16 13 17 16 NO DIFF(VOL) 14 8 20 11 14 14 19 DK/NA 10 8 10 10 8 11 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Helped 56% 64% 63% 58% 61% Hurt 14 11 11 18 18 NO DIFF(VOL) 12 12 12 16 16 DK/NA 17 13 14 8 5



25. Would you like to see New York City host a national party convention again?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Yes 54% 69% 46% 50% 58% 50% 53% No 34 19 44 37 31 37 36 DK/NA 12 11 10 13 11 12 10

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes 61% 61% 61% 50% 48% No 20 20 20 43 46 DK/NA 19 19 19 7 6



26. Were the demonstrations in New York City during the Republican convention more violent than you expected, less violent than you expected, or about as violent as you expected?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


More violent 11% 8% 14% 10% 8% 14% 11% Less violent 37 35 41 36 38 36 39 About as violent 44 48 39 48 46 43 43 DK/NA 8 9 6 6 8 8 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

More violent 11% 9% 9% 14% 10% Less violent 30 31 31 41 40 About as violent 43 51 49 41 41 DK/NA 16 10 11 4 9



27. Looking ahead to the 2008 Presidential election. Who would you rather see run for President in 2008 -- Rudolph Giuliani or George Pataki?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Giuliani 59% 71% 48% 62% 58% 61% 57% Pataki 19 21 21 17 21 18 21 DK/NA 21 8 31 21 21 22 23

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Giuliani 65% 60% 61% 55% 63% Pataki 16 22 21 19 18 DK/NA 20 18 18 27 19



28. If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were -- Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George Pataki the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 51% 15% 84% 41% 45% 56% 58% Pataki 41 79 10 46 45 38 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 5 4 4 8 7 4 5

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 49% 37% 40% 64% 48% Pataki 34 54 50 28 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 13 6 7 5 3



29. If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were -- Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Clinton 43% 12% 76% 32% 37% 48% 46% Giuliani 50 83 19 58 56 45 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 5 3 4 8 5 5 7

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 38% 33% 34% 56% 39% Giuliani 50 59 58 38 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 5 6 4 4



30. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     HsHolds


Very satisfied 5% 12% 2% 3% 6% 5% 4% Smwht satisfied 42 55 36 37 42 41 40 Smwht dissatisfied 33 20 40 36 30 35 34 Very dissatisfied 18 12 21 21 20 17 21 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2 2 2

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Very satisfied 2% 4% 4% 7% 5% Smwht satisfied 37 35 36 41 55 Smwht dissatisfied 29 36 34 34 28 Very dissatisfied 30 23 24 16 11 DK/NA 1 2 2 2 1