June 7, 2000 - Clinton-Lazio Senate Race Locked In Dead Heat, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Half Of Lazio Support Is Anti-Clinton
U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio has picked up where New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani left off -- locked in a neck and neck race with First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in their U.S. Senate campaign, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Rep. Lazio has 44 percent to Mrs. Clinton's 44 percent.

Mrs. Clinton had 44 percent to Mayor Giuliani's 43 percent in a May 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University.

Among New York State registered voters supporting Lazio, 29 percent say they strongly favor the Republican, while 16 percent say they favor him with reservations and 50 percent say they are voting against Clinton.

Among Clinton voters, 57 percent say they strongly favor her, while 34 percent say they favor her with reservations and 7 percent say they are voting against Lazio.

From May 30 - June 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 970 New York State registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

"Surprising good news for Rep. Lazio. New to the Senate race, he's in a dead heat with Mrs. Clinton and already on a par with the Republican he replaced, Mayor Giuliani," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Lingering bad news for Lazio. Even after the torrent of public attention he's enjoyed, more than half of New York voters still don't know enough about him to decide whether they like him."

While Clinton leads Lazio 49 - 38 percent among all women, Lazio edges Clinton 46 - 41 percent among white women, a critical voting block that had supported Giuliani.

Lazio leads among upstate voters 49 - 38 percent, and among suburban voters 54 - 38 percent, while Clinton leads 56 - 30 percent among New York City voters.

By a 25 - 8 percent margin, voters statewide have a favorable opinion of Lazio, with 8 percent mixed and 58 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Clinton's favorability is 35 - 39 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 3 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is down slightly from her 37 - 35 percent favorability in the May 16 poll.

Mayor Giuliani's favorability is 42 - 27 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion, one of his highest scores statewide.

"On the ideological scale, 55 percent of voters label Clinton a liberal. One-third of voters aren't sure about Lazio yet, but 32 percent call him a moderate and 26 percent call him a conservative," Carroll said.

New York State voters are split 47 - 46 percent on whether Clinton has "the right kind of experience to be a Senator from New York."

By a 49 - 14 percent margin, with 37 percent undecided, voters say Lazio has "the right kind of experience."

Thirty-eight percent of voters say education is the issue they most want discussed by the candidates, while 26 percent list taxes and 23 percent list health care or health care costs.

Abortion should be generally available, 50 percent of voters say, while 34 percent say there should be some limits on abortion and 13 percent say abortion should not be permitted. Only 23 percent of voters support so-called "partial birth abortion," while 63 percent say it should be banned except when needed to save the life of the mother.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 62% 63% 53% 73% 80% 50% 66% 64% 61%

Disapprove 25 24 31 19 11 36 23 24 26

DK/NA 13 13 16 8 8 14 10 12 13



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 64% 56% 75% 62% 30% 88% 62% 62% 65%

Disapprove 32 40 21 33 64 10 33 35 30

DK/NA 4 4 4 5 5 2 5 3 5



4. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


A lot 45% 41% 46% 50% 51% 46% 42% 48% 44%

Some 36 40 33 34 32 35 40 34 38

Only a little 14 13 15 12 11 15 13 14 13

None at all 5 5 5 4 6 4 5 4 5

DK/NA - - - - - - - - -



5. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 42% 41% 38% 50% 65% 27% 43% 48% 37%

Unfavorable 27 18 41 25 9 43 22 22 30

Mixed 22 25 18 23 15 24 25 22 23

Hvn't hrd enough 7 12 3 2 8 5 8 5 8

DK/NA 2 4 1 - 3 1 2 3 2



6. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 35% 32% 45% 30% 12% 60% 25% 28% 41%

Unfavorable 39 42 30 45 69 13 46 49 32

Mixed 22 22 21 24 15 23 26 20 24

Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2

DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 1 - 1



7. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Favorable 25% 25% 18% 33% 42% 12% 26% 29% 22%

Unfavorable 8 5 12 8 3 14 5 9 7

Mixed 8 6 9 11 5 11 7 9 7

Hvn't hrd enough 58 64 58 47 49 61 60 52 62

DK/NA 1 - 2 - - 2 - - 2



8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican for whom would you vote?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Clinton 44% 38% 56% 38% 14% 74% 31% 36% 49% Rick Lazio 44 49 30 54 80 16 53 53 38

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 10 10 7 6 9 11 8 11



9. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                                  Clinton  Lazio
                         Tot      Voters   Voters


Made up 72% 65% 79%

Might change 26 34 19

DK/NA 2 2 1



10. Would you describe your support for Clinton/Lazio as strongly favoring her/him, or do you like Clinton/Lazio but with reservations, or do you support Clinton/Lazio because you dislike the other candidate?

                                  Clinton  Lazio
                         Tot      voters   voters


Strongly favor 43% 57% 29%

Like with reservations 25 34 16

Dislike other candidate 29 7 50

DK/NA 4 3 5



12. What are the issues or problems that you most want to hear the candidates for United States Senator from New York talk about during the campaign? (Percentages may add to more than 100% because respondents were allowed to give up to three responses.)

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Crime/Violence 9% 4% 15% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% Drugs 1 2 1 1 - 2 1 2 1 Guns/Gun Control 9 8 8 13 9 9 10 12 8 Police (general) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 Police Brutality/ Racism 1 - 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 Death Penalty 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 Budget/Deficit 1 1 1 1 2 - 2 2 - Spending Priorities 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - Economy 5 5 5 4 4 3 9 7 3 Unemployment/Jobs 7 13 4 2 6 7 9 8 6 Upstate NY Issues 2 4 - - 1 1 2 1 2 Taxes 26 28 17 33 32 18 30 26 25 State Income Tax 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Property Tax 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - Poverty/Homelessness 3 2 5 3 1 4 3 3 3 Housing Costs/ Availability 3 - 5 4 - 5 1 2 3 Welfare 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 Immigration 1 - 2 1 1 1 - 1 1 Children's Issues 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 3 Women's Issues 1 1 2 1 - 3 1 - 2 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 23 22 25 22 16 30 20 19 26 Medicare 6 7 5 6 7 6 7 3 9 Abortion 6 5 5 9 5 5 6 6 6 Social Security 9 8 10 11 8 12 7 10 9 Elderly/Senior Issues 4 4 2 5 3 3 5 3 4 Education 38 31 48 39 32 49 34 30 45 Funding Public Schools 1 1 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 Violence in Schools 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 2 School Choice/ Vouchers 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 Environment/ Pollution 5 4 4 10 4 6 6 5 5 Lack of Mass Transit/Public Transportation 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 Gas Prices 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Campaign Finance Reform 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 Foreign Policy 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 2

Other 16 16 17 14 18 15 16 17 15 DK/NA 15 17 15 13 20 11 14 16 14



13. Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton has the right kind of experience to be a Senator from New York State, or not?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 47% 46% 56% 40% 24% 70% 40% 43% 51%

No 46 47 38 54 72 22 54 51 42

DK/NA 7 7 7 7 4 8 7 6 8



14. Do you think Rick Lazio has the right kind of experience to be a Senator from New York State, or not?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes 49% 46% 44% 61% 65% 36% 52% 58% 43%

No 14 10 20 11 6 22 10 14 14

DK/NA 37 44 36 27 29 42 39 29 44



15. Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Liberal 55% 56% 51% 59% 68% 49% 54% 59% 52%

Moderate 25 23 28 24 13 32 25 22 27

Conservative 9 8 11 8 7 9 11 8 10

DK/NA 11 14 10 10 12 10 10 12 11



15. (If answered 'Liberal' in Q15) Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton is too liberal or not?
                        Of those who answered 'Liberal' in question 15


Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Yes/Too liberal 50% 54% 42% 53% 77% 23% 53% 58% 44%

No/Not too liberal 46 40 56 42 15 76 43 38 51

DK/NA 4 6 1 5 7 2 5 4 5



16. Do you think of Rick Lazio as more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Liberal 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 9% 6% 6% 8%

Moderate 32 31 27 40 45 24 33 36 29

Conservative 26 20 33 26 21 31 23 29 24

DK/NA 35 42 34 27 28 36 37 29 40



16. (If answered 'Conservative' in Q16) Do you think Rick Lazio is too conservative or not?
                      Of those who answered 'Conservative' in question 16


Tot Ups NYC Sub Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Yes/Too conservative 33% 21% 43% 31% 6% 47% 29% 32% 33%

No/Not too conservative 51 61 41 53 83 33 57 54 48

DK/NA 17 18 16 16 10 21 15 13 20



17. Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

                            Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. 50% 38% 59% 60% 34% 61% 50% 50% 51%

Abortion should be available, but under stricter limits than it is now. 34 41 31 26 46 28 34 36 32

Abortion should not be permitted. 13 19 8 10 18 9 13 11 15

DK/NA 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 3 2



18. Do you think that a specific abortion procedure known as partial birth abortion should be legal or illegal except when necessary to save the life of the mother?

                      Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Legal 23% 16% 29% 26% 16% 29% 21% 26% 21%

Illegal except to save mother 63 70 55 62 72 56 65 58 67

DK/NA 14 14 16 12 12 15 14 16 12