April 15, 1999 - Hillary Clinton Lead Over Giuliani Down To 5 Points, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Upstate And Suburbs Shift To Mayor
First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton's lead over New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in their undeclared U.S. Senate race has closed to 47 - 42 percent lead for Mrs. Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

In a February 23 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College, Mrs. Clinton led Mayor Giuliani 54 - 36 percent. That gap narrowed to 50 - 39 percent in a March 23 Quinnipiac College Poll.

If former U.S. Senator Alfonse D'Amato faced Clinton, the First Lady would win 54 - 34 percent, almost identical to the March 23 poll results.

Giuliani gained in every area of the state and leads Mrs. Clinton 47 - 40 among upstate voters, who favored Clinton 45 - 43 percent in the March 23 poll; the Mayor leads Clinton 50 - 40 among suburban voters, up from 45 - 44 percent, but loses 61 - 31 percent among New York City voters, similar to the March 23 findings.

"Maybe Mrs. Clinton's visit to New York will reinvigorate the support for her, but so far the curve has been down since that 18-point lead when she was a magazine cover girl and the Washington talking heads were talking about nothing else," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Registered voters tell the Quinnipiac College Poll that Mrs. Clinton cares more about their needs, but that Giuliani would do a better job addressing the needs of New York State."

Voters say, 47 - 38 percent that Clinton cares more than Giuliani "about the needs and problems of people like you." But by a big 63 - 27 percent margin, they think Giuliani "has a better understanding of the problems and important issues facing New York State."

By a narrow 48 - 43 percent margin, voters say Giuliani would be more effective in getting things done for New York.

By a 48 - 23 percent margin, New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, with 22 percent mixed and 6 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Giuliani gets a 38 - 27 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 13 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Looking at Clinton, 52 percent see her as liberal, while 27 percent see her as moderate and11 percent see her as conservative. Looking at Giuliani, 14 percent see him as liberal, while 37 percent see him as moderate and 36 percent see him as conservative.

The fact that Clinton is not a New York resident bothers 46 percent of voters, while 53 percent say they are not bothered.

"New Yorkers have decided in the past that politicians from Massachusetts and Connecticut could represent the state in the Senate. So why, many say, should residence in the White House be a disqualifier," Carroll said.

Because of Giuliani's handling of the Amadou Diallo case, 7 percent of voters say they are more likely to vote for him, while 34 percent say they are less likely and 51 percent say it makes no difference in how they vote.

From April 7 - 13, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,210 New Yorkers who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                                                                    March 24
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 59% 63% 49% 66% 84% 42% 60% 62% 57% 60%

Disapprove 31 27 40 26 10 47 28 29 32 30

DK/NA 10 11 12 8 7 11 12 10 11 11



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 51% 43% 60% 52% 32% 68% 48% 46% 54% 52%

Disapprove 22 25 18 21 38 10 22 29 15 20

DK/NA 28 32 23 27 30 22 30 25 30 28



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Daniel Patrick Moynihan is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 59% 56% 61% 61% 50% 67% 60% 58% 59% 64%

Disapprove 22 24 19 21 31 14 22 27 17 19

DK/NA 19 20 21 18 18 19 19 15 24 16



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                                                                    March 24
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Approve 62% 55% 70% 64% 37% 84% 59% 59% 64% 64%

Disapprove 35 42 26 34 60 12 38 38 32 32

DK/NA 3 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 4 3



5. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 48% 42% 57% 47% 24% 71% 44% 43% 52% 51%

Unfavorable 23 27 17 25 47 6 25 29 19 21

Mixed 22 23 19 23 26 16 22 20 24 21

Hvn't hrd engh 6 7 5 5 3 6 7 7 5 5

REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1



6. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom  1999


Favorable 38% 36% 33% 48% 60% 22% 40% 41% 35% 38%

Unfavorable 27 15 43 25 9 43 23 27 27 26

Mixed 22 19 23 24 15 25 22 21 22 23

Hvn't hrd engh 13 28 1 3 14 9 14 11 15 13

REFUSED 1 2 - - 2 1 1 1 1 1



7. Is your opinion of former New York Senator Alfonse D'Amato favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 31% 29% 29% 36% 52% 18% 29% 36% 26% 32%

Unfavorable 39 40 42 35 17 53 42 39 40 42

Mixed 20 20 19 21 23 17 19 18 22 18

Hvn't hrd engh 9 11 8 8 7 12 9 6 12 7

REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 1



8. Is your opinion of New York Congresswoman Nita Lowey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 12% 6% 13% 19% 8% 15% 12% 12% 12% 9%

Unfavorable 5 3 4 8 9 2 4 7 2 4

Mixed 6 4 8 6 5 8 4 5 7 5

Hvn't hrd engh 77 87 73 66 77 75 78 75 79 79

REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 - 2 2 1 2



9. Is your opinion of New York Congressman Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 8% 6% 6% 15% 10% 6% 9% 11% 6% 8%

Unfavorable 3 1 3 7 2 3 4 4 3 4

Mixed 6 4 6 8 5 6 5 6 5 4

Hvn't hrd engh 82 89 83 68 81 83 81 77 85 83

REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1



10. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 47% 40% 61% 40% 15% 76% 41% 41% 51% 50%

Giuliani 42 47 31 50 76 17 45 48 38 39

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 3 2 3 2 4 4 2 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 3 1 2

DK/NA 6 7 4 5 4 5 7 4 8 6



11. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat, and Alfonse D'Amato, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                    March 23
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Rodham Clinton 54% 47% 67% 49% 18% 83% 51% 48% 59% 56%

D'Amato 34 39 25 39 72 11 34 40 30 34

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 3

DK/NA 6 7 3 6 5 3 7 4 7 5



12. Who do you think has stronger leadership qualities -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Hillary Rodham Clinton 39% 36% 46% 32% 18% 58% 33% 33% 44%

Rudolph Giuliani 48 46 42 56 73 28 50 56 40

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 4 4 5 4 1 5 6 4 5

DK/NA 10 13 6 8 8 9 11 7 12



13. Who do you think is more honest and trustworthy -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Hillary Rodham
Clinton            38%   33%   51%   32%   12%   62%   34%   33%   43%


Rudolph Giuliani 41 40 33 52 68 20 44 48 35

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 10 10

DK/NA 11 17 6 7 11 9 11 9 13



14. Who do you think would be more effective in the United States Senate at getting things done for New York State -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Hillary Rodham
Clinton            43%   38%   52%   39%   18%   67%   37%   38%   47%


Rudolph Giuliani 48 47 40 57 73 25 53 54 42

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 4 2 1 3 5 3 4

DK/NA 6 11 3 2 9 4 5 5 7



15. Who do you think cares more about the needs and problems of people like you -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Hillary Rodham
Clinton            47%   42%   60%   42%   19%   75%   41%   42%   52%


Rudolph Giuliani 38 39 29 47 67 16 41 44 32

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 7 7 5 8 7 4 9 6 7

DK/NA 8 12 5 3 7 5 10 7 8



16. Who do you think has a better understanding of problems and important issues facing New York State -- Hillary Rodham Clinton or Rudolph Giuliani?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom
Hillary Rodham
Clinton            27%   24%   35%   22%    9%   48%   20%   24%   29%


Rudolph Giuliani 63 64 55 71 86 43 69 69 58

SAME/NO DIFF(VOL) 4 3 5 3 2 4 5 2 5

DK/NA 6 9 5 3 4 6 7 5 8



17. Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Liberal 52% 53% 49% 54% 61% 48% 50% 57% 48%

Moderate 27 22 30 31 18 31 31 25 28

Conservative 11 12 14 8 10 13 10 13 10

DK/NA 10 13 8 8 11 8 9 6 13



18. Do you think of Rudolph Giuliani more as a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Liberal 14% 15% 14% 12% 12% 15% 14% 14% 13%

Moderate 37 41 29 40 48 30 38 40 35

Conservative 36 25 48 39 27 45 34 37 35

DK/NA 13 20 9 8 12 10 13 8 17



19. Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton will or will not run for the United States Senate in New York?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes, will run 50% 50% 53% 48% 51% 53% 48% 52% 49%

No, will not run 35 35 34 38 36 32 40 37 34

DK/NA 14 15 13 14 13 14 12 11 17



20. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for the United States Senate in New York, would the fact that she is not currently a resident of New York bother you or not bother you?

                   Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Yes it would bother me 46% 54% 33% 49% 72% 25% 48% 51% 42%

No it would not bother me 53 44 65 50 27 74 51 48 57

DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



21. How closely have you been following the case of Amadou Diallo, the African immigrant who was shot and killed by four white police officers in New York City. Would you say you have been following it very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very closely 26% 12% 42% 29% 24% 32% 24% 28% 25%

Smwht closely 44 39 43 53 40 47 44 45 42

Not too closely 20 30 11 14 24 15 20 18 22

Not at all 10 19 2 4 12 5 11 9 10

DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 - - 1



22. Does Rudolph Giuliani's handling of this incident make you more likely to vote for him for Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


More likely 7% 5% 7% 10% 12% 3% 8% 8% 6%

Less likely 34 21 50 34 12 54 32 32 35

No difference 51 59 41 51 66 38 50 56 47

DK/NA 8 15 2 5 10 5 10 4 12



23. Is your opinion of President Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                    March 24
                Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   1999


Favorable 41% 33% 50% 43% 21% 63% 36% 44% 39% 46%

Unfavorable 31 40 19 30 57 8 34 35 27 31

Mixed 26 25 28 27 22 27 28 20 32 21

Hvn't hrd engh 1 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 2 1

REFUSED - 1 - - - - - - - 1



24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling the situation in Yugolsavia involving Serbia and Kosovo?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Approve 62% 60% 63% 61% 48% 76% 60% 62% 62%

Disapprove 28 31 24 28 45 12 30 32 25

DK/NA 10 9 12 10 8 11 10 6 14



25. How closely have you been following news about the United States and NATO air strikes bombing military targets in Yugoslavia? Have you been following it very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

                        Tot   Ups   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom


Very closely 45% 45% 43% 46% 43% 45% 50% 53% 37%

Smwht closely 43 45 41 44 49 40 39 39 47

Not too closely 10 8 14 9 7 13 9 6 14

Not at all 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2

DK/NA - - - - - - - - -