November 10, 1999 - Giuliani Inches Past Clinton In New York Senate Race, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds, White Women, A Key Voting Group, Back Mayor
New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who has been locked in a tie with First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, now holds a narrow 47 - 42 percent lead in their undeclared U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac College poll released today.

In the nine months since the Senate race first took shape, Mayor Giuliani has increased support in every area of the state and among men and women.

He now gets 48 percent of the vote of white women, compared to 38 percent for Mrs. Clinton, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds. Exit polls show white women have been on the winning side in every statewide race in New York since 1992.

"It's been a slow but steady climb for Mayor Giuliani in the match-up, matched by a slow but steady drop for Mrs. Clinton," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"The gender gap is alive and well in New York and particularly pronounced in the Senate race. Men like the Mayor. Women like the First Lady. But when we break out the white women, we see this key group favors the Mayor.

"Black support is overwhelmingly for the Democrat, but Jewish voters are split, troubling news for any Democratic candidate."

Men voters back Giuliani 55 - 36 percent, while all women voters back Clinton 47 - 40 percent.

Giuliani wins upstate 50 - 37 percent and takes the suburbs 56 - 33 percent.

Clinton wins in New York City 56 - 35 percent.

Catholic voters back the Mayor 56 - 36 percent, while Jewish voters go 46 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Giuliani, a tie.

Black voters back Clinton 83 - 6 percent.

In a 34 - 33 percent split, voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, with 25 percent mixed and 6 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

By a 38 - 28 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani, with 25 percent mixed and 9 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Clinton's favorability among all women has dropped from 61 - 14 percent in the February 23 Quinnipiac College Poll to 39 - 25 percent today. Her favorability among men has dropped from 46 - 27 percent in February to 29 - 43 percent today. Her overall favorability has dropped from 54 - 20 percent in February to 34 - 33 percent today.

Giuliani's favorability among women went from 30 -22 percent in February to 33 - 29 percent today. His favorability among men was 42 - 20 percent in February, compared to 44 - 26 percent today. His overall favorability has dropped from 36 - 21 percent in February to 38 - 28 percent today, from a +15 to a +10.

"In February, 19 percent of New York State voters did not have an opinion on Mayor Giuliani. Today, that `no opinion' has dropped to 9 percent. In nine months, more people have formed an opinion about Giuliani and his favorability ratings have slipped just slightly," Carroll said.

"At the same time, Mrs. Clinton's favorability has dropped significantly.

"With 12 months to go and 7 percent undecided, this remains a very exciting horse race," Carroll added.

From November 3 - 8, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,109 New York State registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator from New York in the year 2000 -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                  Oct 5
                        Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   1999
                        
A lot                   36%   31%   40%   40%   40%   38%   32%   35%
                        
Some                    38    39    37    36    36    38    40    35
                        
Only a little           19    21    16    18    18    18    20    21
                        
None at all              6     8     6     5     6     5     7     9
                        
DK/NA                    -     -     1     -     -     -     1     -


Men Wom Prot Cath Jew A lot 41% 33% 33% 35% 51% Some 34 41 39 39 32 Only a little 19 19 23 19 17 None at all 6 7 5 7 - DK/NA 1 - - - -



7. Is your opinion of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                  Oct 5
                        Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   1999
                        
Favorable               34%   30%   48%   24%   18%   56%   25%    32%
                        
Unfavorable             33    36    23    41    60    14    34     34
                        
Mixed                   25    26    22    27    18    23    32     25
                        
Hvn't hrd enough         6     6     6     6     4     6     7      8
                        
REFUSED                  1     1     1     1     -     -     2      1


Men Wom Prot Cath Jew Favorable 29% 39% 32% 30% 44 Unfavorable 43 25 36 37 31 Mixed 19 30 24 26 23 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 7 6 1 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 -



8. Is your opinion of New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                  Oct 5
                        Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   1999
                       
Favorable               38%   34%   31%   53%   62%   22%   39%    35%
                       
Unfavorable             28    17    44    25     8    47    22     26
                       
Mixed                   25    29    23    21    19    25    30     26
                       
Hvn't hrd enough         9    19     2     1    10     6     9     12
                       
REFUSED                  1     1     -     -     1     -     1      1


Men Wom Prot Cath Jew Favorable 44% 33% 31% 47% 45% Unfavorable 26 29 27 19 30 Mixed 22 28 29 24 25 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 12 9 - REFUSED - 1 1 - -



9. If the election for United States Senator in the year 2000 were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat, and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                  Oct 5
                        Tot   UPS   NYC   Sub   Rep   Dem   Ind   1999
                        
Rodham Clinton          42%   37%   56%   33%   15%   68%   35%   43%
                        
Giuliani                47    50    35    56    76    24    51    46
                        
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2     2     2     1     1     2     2     3
                        
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2     2     1     2     1     1     3     2
                        
DK/NA                    7     9     5     7     7     5     9     7


Men Wom Prot Cath Jew Rodham Clinton 36% 47% 40% 36% 46% Giuliani 55 40 46 56 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 1 1 DK/NA 6 9 9 6 9