October 15, 1998 - Pataki Steamroller On Auto Pilot, No Change In Numbers, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Voters Split On Value Of Candidate Debate
Republican incumbent Gov. George Pataki holds a 54 - 25 percent lead over Democratic challenger Peter Vallone among New York State likely voters, with 9 percent for Independence Party candidate Thomas Golisano and 4 percent for Liberal Party candidate Betsy McCaughey Ross, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today.

These numbers are virtually unchanged from a September 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac College.

Pataki leads 57 - 15 percent among upstate likely voters and 64 - 27 percent among suburban voters. In New York City, Pataki and Vallone, the City Council Speaker, split 43 - 42 percent among likely voters.

If Pataki and Vallone were the only candidates running for Governor, Pataki would win 63 - 30 percent among likely voters.

"Can anything stop the Pataki steamroller? There has been no change in this race in three weeks and no reason to believe it will change in the next three weeks. The next question is: Does the Governor have coattails? Can he bring Sen. D'Amato and Attorney General Dennis Vacco along for the ride?" said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Speaker Vallone can't even score with the debate over debates. Only 47 percent of registered voters say a televised debate among the candidates would help them decide for whom to vote, while 52 percent say a debate wouldn't matter much."

Pataki gets a 63 - 26 percent approval rating, with a 52 - 34 percent rating in New York City. By a 52 - 18 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Pataki, with 23 percent mixed and 6 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Among his challengers, ratings are:
                        Favorable  Unfavorable  Mixed  No opinion	
Ross                    11         30           16     42
Vallone                 18         13           15     53
Golisano                12          9           15     63


In the race for Attorney General, Republican incumbent Dennis Vacco leads Democratic challenger Eliot Spitzer 45 - 33 percent among likely voters, with 21 percent undecided. In the September 27 Quinnipiac College Poll, Vacco was ahead 46 - 37 percent.

Democratic incumbent State Comptroller H. Carl McCall holds a 52 - 21 percent lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman among likely voters.

"Attorney General Vacco holds his lead over Spitzer, but that race is far from over. There's still a big undecided factor. Neither candidate has strong name recognition, with 51 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about Vacco to form an opinion and 67 percent saying they don't know enough about Spitzer," Carroll said.

"In the State Comptroller's race, Blakeman would have to take the entire 26 percent undecided vote to come close to McCall."

From October 7 -12, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,096 New York State registered voters, including 583 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent for registered voters and 4.1 percent for likely voters. The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor of New York?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998


Approve 63% 69% 52% 66% 67% 59% 62%

Disapprove 26 21 34 25 24 28 26

DK/NA 11 10 14 9 9 13 11



5. How much attention have you been paying to this year's campaigns for Governor and United States Senator? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998
 
A lot                     27%     25%     27%     31%     31%     24%    22%


Some 43 45 42 43 45 42 43

Only a little 23 22 23 22 18 26 26

None at all 7 7 8 4 5 7 8

DK/NA - - - - - - -



6. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998


Favorable 52% 54% 43% 60% 57% 48% 51%

Unfavorable 18 14 24 16 16 20 19

Mixed 23 24 23 21 21 24 23

Haven't heard enough 6 7 9 2 5 8 7

Refused 1 1 - - 1 - 1



7. Is your opinion of Peter Vallone favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998
 
Favorable                 18%     10%     29%     17%     19%     17%    21%


Unfavorable 13 12 11 18 16 11 8

Mixed 15 11 20 17 17 14 13

Haven't heard enough 53 67 39 47 48 57 57

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 1 1



8. Is your opinion of Betsy McCaughey Ross favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998


Favorable 11% 11% 12% 9% 9% 12% 13%

Unfavorable 30 25 30 40 37 25 28

Mixed 16 17 13 20 14 18 19

Haven't heard enough 42 47 44 30 38 44 39

Refused 1 1 1 1 1 - 1



9. Is your opinion of Thomas Golisano favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998
 
Favorable                 12%     20%      5%      9%     14%     11%    10%


Unfavorable 9 11 8 8 12 7 7

Mixed 15 20 10 12 15 14 10

Haven't heard enough 63 49 76 71 58 68 72

Refused 1 - 1 1 1 - 1



10. If the 1998 election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for George Pataki the Republican candidate, Peter Vallone the Democratic candidate, Betsy McCaughey Ross the Liberal party candidate, or Thomas Golisano the Independence party candidate?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998


Peter Vallone 25% 13% 41% 25% 23% 27% 25%

George Pataki 50 53 38 59 54 47 50

Betsy McCaughey Ross 6 7 6 4 4 8 6

Tom Golisano 9 15 4 5 11 7 7

Someone else (Vol.) 1 1 1 - 1 1 -

Won't vote (Vol.) 2 2 2 2 1 2 2

DK/NA 8 9 8 6 6 10 12



10. If the 1998 election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Peter Vallone the Democratic candidate, George Pataki the Republican candidate, Betsy McCaughey Ross the Liberal party candidate, or Thomas Golisano the Independence party candidate? (Likely Voters)

                                          LIKELY VOTERS
                                                                         Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom     1998


Peter Vallone 25% 15% 42% 27% 22% 29% 26%

George Pataki 54 57 43 64 59 50 53

Betsy McCaughey Ross 4 5 4 2 4 5 4

Tom Golisano 9 16 3 4 11 8 9

Someone else (Vol.) 1 - 1 - - 1 -

DK/NA 6 6 7 4 4 8 8



11. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                                  LIKELY VOTERS


Vallone Pataki Voters Voters

Mind made up 67% 71%

Might change mind 33 29

DK/NA 1 -



12. Would you describe your support for (candidate's name) as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?

                                  LIKELY VOTERS


Vallone Pataki Voters Voters

Strongly favor 30% 54%

Like, but with reservations 29 37

Dislike other candidates 36 7

DK/NA 4 1



13. If George Pataki and Peter Vallone were the only two candidates on the ballot, and the election for Governor were being held today, would you vote for George Pataki or Peter Vallone?

                                          LIKELY VOTERS
                                                                         
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom     


Vallone 30% 22% 46% 28% 27% 33%

Pataki 63 72 44 68 67 59

DK/NA 7 7 10 4 6 9



14. Would a debate on television between the candidates for governor help you decide for whom to vote for governor this November, or wouldn't a debate really matter much?

                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom
 
Help                      47%     51%     46%     39%     42%     50%


Not matter much 52 47 52 59 57 47

DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 2



15. Do you think any televised debate should be only between George Pataki and Peter Vallone, or should other party candidates also be included?

                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom 
Pataki and Vallone
only                      12%      7%     16%     15%     14%     10%


Include other candidates 83 87 78 82 82 84

DK/NA 5 5 5 3 4 5



22. Is your opinion of Dennis Vacco favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom 
 
Favorable                 20%     29%     11%     18%     24%     16%


Unfavorable 9 9 12 7 11 8

Mixed 19 22 14 23 22 17

Haven't heard enough 51 40 64 51 43 57

Refused 1 1 1 - - 1



23. Is your opinion of Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom 
 
Favorable                 10%      8%     10%     14%      9%     11%


Unfavorable 7 8 7 6 10 5

Mixed 15 14 16 14 13 16

Haven't heard enough 67 70 67 65 67 68

Refused 1 - 1 2 1 1



24. If the 1998 election for State Attorney General were being held today, would you vote for Dennis Vacco the Republican candidate, or Eliot Spitzer the Democratic candidate?

                                                                      Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998


Dennis Vacco 37% 49% 23% 37% 44% 32% 40%

Eliot Spitzer 33 24 44 33 28 37 35

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1

WON'T VOTE (VOL) 4 3 6 3 5 3 2

DK/NA 25 25 26 26 23 27 23



24. If the 1998 election for State Attorney General were being held today, would you vote for Dennis Vacco the Republican candidate, or Eliot Spitzer the Democratic candidate? (Likely Voters)

                                          LIKELY VOTERS
                                                                         Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom     1998


Dennis Vacco 45% 56% 29% 44% 51% 39% 46%

Eliot Spitzer 33 24 47 34 29 37 37

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - -

DK/NA 21 19 24 21 18 23 17



25. Is your opinion of H. Carl McCall favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom 


Favorable 23% 25% 20% 22% 25% 20%

Unfavorable 4 4 5 4 6 2

Mixed 13 9 17 12 14 11

Haven't heard enough 60 62 57 62 54 66

Refused 1 - 1 - 1 -



26. Is your opinion of Bruce Blakeman favorable, unfavorable mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom 


Favorable 4% 3% 2% 7% 6% 2%

Unfavorable 2 3 1 3 3 2

Mixed 4 5 3 6 5 4

Haven't heard enough 89 88 94 85 86 91

Refused - 1 - - - -



27. If the 1998 election for State Controller were being held today, would you vote for H.Carl McCall the Democratic candidate or Bruce Blakeman the Republican candidate?

                                                                       Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom   1998


H. Carl McCall 45% 44% 48% 43% 45% 45% 47%

Bruce Blakeman 20 20 14 27 23 17 20

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 -

WON'T VOTE (VOL) 5 4 6 5 5 5 2

DK/NA 29 32 30 23 26 32 30



27. If the 1998 election for State Controller were being held today, would you vote for H.Carl McCall the Democratic candidate or Bruce Blakeman the Republican candidate? (Likely Voters)

                                         LIKELY VOTERS
                                                                         Sep 27
                          Tot     Ups     NYC     Sub     Men     Wom     1998


H. Carl McCall 52% 52% 54% 49% 50% 54% 54%

Bruce Blakeman 21 19 16 32 26 17 22

SOMEONE ELSE (VOL) - - 1 - - - -

DK/NA 26 29 29 20 24 29 24