August 24, 2006 - Anti-War Challenger Barely Scratches Clinton, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Republican Voters Have Little Interest In GOP Race
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton leads anti-war challenger Jonathan Tasini 86 - 10 percent among New York State likely Democratic primary voters, including leaners, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Four percent are undecided and 13 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the September 12 primary.

In general election matchups, Sen. Clinton leads either of two possible Republican challengers by more than 2 - 1 among registered voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
  • 64 - 24 percent over former Pentagon official Kathleen McFarland;
  • 62 - 26 percent over former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer.
The Democratic incumbent has widened her lead over the Republican challengers since a June 22 poll when she led McFarland 58 - 31 percent and topped Spencer 57 - 33 percent.

In a primary matchup, Spencer leads McFarland 30 - 23 percent among registered Republican voters, with 42 percent undecided and 65 percent of those who name a candidate saying they might change their mind. "Lamont-Lieberman sure didn't cross the state line. Maybe the bloggers haven't heard yet that there's a primary in New York. Jonathan Tasini is barely in double figures against Sen. Hillary Clinton," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Political observers are bemused by the ferocity of the fight between Kathleen McFarland and John Spencer for what the numbers suggest is the right to be trounced by Clinton. Neither has much money. Neither, the poll says, has much of a chance in November. No voters are paying attention. Assessing the outcome of that primary would be nuts. Flip a coin," Carroll said.

New York State voters approve 58 - 34 percent of the job Sen. Clinton is doing and give her a 50 - 29 percent favorability rating, with 19 percent mixed and 3 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

For McFarland, 72 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion; for Spencer, 80 percent haven't heard enough.

Rating their interest in the Republican Senate primary on a scale of 1 - 10, 15 percent of Republican voters list 1, not at all interested, with 55 percent at the midpoint or lower. Only 13 percent list 10, very interested.

President Bush's Approval

New York State voters disapprove 69 - 27 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Republican voters approve 62 - 29 percent, while Democrats disapprove 90 - 9 percent and independent voters disapprove 70 - 26 percent.

From August 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,556 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 464 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent, and 469 registered Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 58% 28% 80% 52% 53% 63% Disapprove 34 64 14 38 39 29 DK/NA 8 8 6 10 8 8

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 61% 54% 55% 66% 51% Disapprove 32 38 37 25 43 DK/NA 7 8 8 10 6

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Rodham Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30  Jan 20  Feb 9   Feb 14
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2001


Approve 58 58 61 57 60 65 38 Disapprove 34 35 33 35 32 27 30 DK/NA 8 7 7 8 8 8 33



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 59% 40% 72% 57% 59% 59% Disapprove 23 40 13 25 28 19 DK/NA 18 20 15 18 13 22

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 58% 54% 55% 66% 57% Disapprove 21 25 24 19 28 DK/NA 22 21 21 14 15

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (* = Also hit 69% on 10/02/01)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30  Jan 20  Dec 8   Apr 15
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2004 *  1999


Approve 59 62 61 63 58 69 51 Disapprove 23 23 25 21 28 16 22 DK/NA 18 14 14 16 14 15 28



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 27% 62% 9% 26% 28% 26% Disapprove 69 29 90 70 68 71 DK/NA 4 8 1 4 5 3

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 36% 32% 33% 18% 30% Disapprove 63 64 64 79 66 DK/NA 1 5 4 3 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* = Also 82% on 10/2/2001)

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30  Jan 20  Nov 14  May 18
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2001 *  2006


Approve 27 28 22 28 33 82 22 Disapprove 69 68 75 69 62 15 75 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 5 3 3



11. Is your opinion of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 50% 19% 74% 44% 46% 53% Unfavorable 29 65 8 31 33 24 Mixed 19 13 16 23 18 19 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 2 2 3 3 REFUSED - - - - - 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 52% 46% 47% 59% 39% Unfavorable 28 34 33 19 37 Mixed 18 19 18 18 20 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 3 4 REFUSED - - - 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30  Jan 20  May 5   Nov 14
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006    2005    2001


Favorable 50 48 51 48 51 53 37 Unfavorable 29 33 28 29 28 22 29 Mixed 19 16 17 18 17 19 17 Hvn't heard enough 3 3 4 3 4 5 15 REFUSED - - 1 1 - - 1



12. Is your opinion of former Pentagon official Kathleen McFarland favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 6% 7% 7% 5% 6% 7% Unfavorable 10 8 10 10 14 6 Mixed 11 12 11 10 10 12 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 71 74 70 75 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 4% 6% 6% 7% 6% Unfavorable 3 8 7 14 9 Mixed 9 11 10 12 10 Hvn't hrd enough 84 75 76 67 73 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of former Pentagon official Kathleen McFarland favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18
                        2006    2006    2006


Favorable 6 8 7 Unfavorable 10 7 7 Mixed 11 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 72 74 76 REFUSED 1 2 1



13. Is your opinion of former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% Unfavorable 6 4 7 7 7 5 Mixed 8 6 8 7 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 83 78 82 79 81 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% Unfavorable 2 3 3 7 11 Mixed 5 6 6 8 11 Hvn't hrd enough 88 86 87 77 72 REFUSED - 1 - 2 1

TREND: Is your opinion of former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30  Jan 20
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006


Favorable 5 7 5 8 4 Unfavorable 6 6 6 5 4 Mixed 8 8 8 5 7 Hvn't heard enough 80 78 80 81 84 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1



14. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Kathleen McFarland the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 64% 21% 90% 61% 62% 65% McFarland 24 64 5 22 26 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 8 11 3 10 7 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 64% 56% 57% 76% 56% McFarland 26 32 31 13 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 3 3 DK/NA 5 10 9 6 10

TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Kathleen McFarland the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30
                        2006    2006    2006    2006


Clinton 64 58 64 60 McFarland 24 31 27 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 8 7 7 7



15. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John Spencer the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Clinton 62% 19% 88% 62% 59% 65% Spencer 26 66 6 24 30 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 9 12 4 10 8 9

UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Clinton 63% 56% 57% 74% 53% Spencer 30 33 32 16 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 5 8 8 7 12

TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John Spencer the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30  Jan 20
                        2006    2006    2006    2006    2006


Clinton 62 57 63 60 60 Spencer 26 33 27 30 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 7 7 7 7



21. (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were John Spencer and Kathleen McFarland, for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Spencer 30% 39% 19% McFarland 23 16 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 2 DK/NA 42 39 46

TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2006 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were John Spencer and Kathleen McFarland, for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........
                        Aug 24  Jun 22  May 18  Mar 30
                        2006    2006    2006    2006


Spencer 30 24 25 22 McFarland 23 27 35 35 SMONE ELSE 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 3 6 3 5 DK/NA 42 43 36 37



21a. (If candidate choice q21) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        Tot     Men     Wom
               
Made up                 30%     32%     29%
Might change            65      64      67 
DK/NA                    4       4       4 




24. (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton and Jonathan Tasini, for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Clinton 82% 79% 85% Tasini 9 11 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 8 5



24. (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton and Jonathan Tasini, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q24) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Tasini? This table includes Leaners.

                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC 
                        PRIMARY VOTERS.....
                        Tot     Men     Wom


Clinton 86% 83% 89% Tasini 10 13 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 4 5 3



24a. (If candidate choice on q24) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC 
                        PRIMARY VOTERS
                        Tot     HC 
                                   
Made up                 86%     86%
Might change            13      13 
DK/NA                    1       1