November 11, 2009 - Republican Challenger Catches Ohio's Strickland, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sagging Economy Pushes Governor To New Low

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Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's lead over John Kasich in the 2010 race for reelection has dropped into a 40 - 40 percent tie, with Ohio voters seeing the possible Republican challenger as better able to handle rebuilding the state economy and handling the budget, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 - 36 percent Gov. Strickland lead in a September 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, up from 43 - 38 percent July 3.

Ohio voters approve 45 - 43 percent of the job Strickland is doing, down from 48 - 42 percent September 15 and his lowest overall score ever. And by a 43 - 32 percent margin, voters say the Governor has not kept his campaign promises.

"When Quinnipiac University first began asking about a Strickland-Kasich race for Governor in February, the incumbent held a 56 - 26 percent lead over his challenger. Now they are dead even. Obviously a lot has changed: the Governor's own ratings have gone down more than the challenger's have come up," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Moreover, when voters are asked who could do a better job handling the state budget and rebuilding the state economy they say Kasich. We still have a year to go, but Kasich is in much better shape than one could have imaged earlier this year."

Ohio voters give Strickland a split 38 - 37 percent favorability, his worst ratio ever. Kasich, a former Congressman and Fox News show host is a virtual unknown by comparison, with 23 percent seeing him favorably, 7 percent unfavorably and 69 percent saying they don't know enough about him to have an opinion.

"This race is about Ted Strickland. Because so few voters have a firm fix on Kasich, the campaign is likely to be a race to define him in the eyes of most voters," Brown added. "That will mean the Strickland campaign will be trying to convince those seven in 10 voters who don't know enough about Kasich that he isn't their kind of guy," said Brown. "In plain language that means we're likely to see a strongly negative campaign from both sides, as Kasich will almost certainly dwell on the alleged shortcomings of the Governor's record."

In the matchup, Kasich does better among Republicans, 76 - 9 percent, and independent voters, 39 - 34 percent, while the Governor is keeping Democrats 76 - 10 percent. There is almost no gender gap, generally a bad sign for Democrats. Women tip 40 - 38 percent for Strickland, while men lean to Kasich 43 - 41 percent.

Strickland gets a very low score for handling the economy, as voters disapprove 52 - 33 percent. When asked who could do a better job rebuilding the economy, 41 percent say Kasich; 33 percent Strickland. And voters say 42 - 34 percent that Kasich would do a better job handling the state budget.

"These numbers, even though they favor the challenger, say a lot more about Ted Strickland than they do about John Kasich because so few Ohioans know that much about him," said Brown.

The Ohio legislature, in which Democrats control the House and Republicans the Senate, gets a thumbs down from 47 percent of voters and is viewed positively by 33 percent. But when asked whether they would prefer having one party control both chambers, 52 percent say they prefer split control, while 22 percent would prefer Republicans running both houses and 19 percent want Democrats to be in charge of both.

U.S. Sen. George Voinovich gets a 47 - 36 percent job approval rating and Sen. Sherrod Brown gets a 46 - 31 percent score.

From November 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,123 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter.

3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           40%     9%    76%    34%    41%    40%    36%
Kasich               40     76     10     39     43     38     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      -      1      1
DK/NA                18     14     13     25     14     21     15
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Strickland           34%    43%    47%    62%    31%    40%
Kasich               52     36     23     30     44     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      1      1      1      -      1
DK/NA                13     19     29      6     23     10
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Mar 17  Feb 5
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Strickland           40      46      43      51      51      56
Kasich               40      36      38      32      31      26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       1       1       2       1
DK/NA                18      15      16      16      15      16
 
8. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            38%    14%    62%    34%    38%    38%    29%
Unfavorable          37     62     18     36     40     34     40
Hvn't hrd enough     23     22     17     28     20     26     28
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      2      3      2
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Favorable            37%    39%    25%    70%    32%    37%
Unfavorable          43     35     34     25     33     44
Hvn't hrd enough     17     22     39      4     34     18
REFUSED               2      3      2      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Mar 17  Feb 5   Dec 10
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            38      43      42      53      54      60      47
Unfavorable          37      34      37      25      26      19      25
Hvn't hrd enough     23      20      18      18      17      17      26
REFUSED               2       3       3       3       3       3       2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            23%    41%     9%    22%    29%    18%    27%
Unfavorable           7      5     11      5      8      6      3
Hvn't hrd enough     69     54     79     72     62     75     68
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      1      1      1
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Favorable            47%    18%     9%    25%    22%    20%
Unfavorable          12      6      3     11      4      6
Hvn't hrd enough     41     76     87     64     73     73
REFUSED               -      1      1      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Mar 17  Feb 5   Dec 10
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            23      22      26      22      21      21      18
Unfavorable           7      10       7       7       6       6       8
Hvn't hrd enough     69      68      66      70      71      71      73
REFUSED               1       -       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              45%    20%    65%    47%    44%    45%    37%
Disapprove           43     66     23     42     46     40     49
DK/NA                12     14     12     11      9     15     15
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              42%    47%    33%    63%    51%    33%
Disapprove           50     39     47     30     37     56
DK/NA                 8     14     20      7     11     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as governor? (*Low app also 45% Feb 2007)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Feb 5   Nov 11  Nov 11
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*   2009
 
Approve              45      48      46      57      63      45      45
Disapprove           43      42      42      29      25      43      43
DK/NA                12      10      12      13      12      12      12
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              47%    53%    45%    49%    45%    48%    38%
Disapprove           36     32     36     36     43     30     39
DK/NA                17     15     20     15     12     22     22
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              49%    49%    33%    50%    44%    47%
Disapprove           38     34     31     48     34     40
DK/NA                13     16     36      3     22     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 55% Feb 2009)
                                                     APPROVE....... DIS....
                                                     High   Low     High
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 7   May 6   May 6  Dec 13  Nov 11
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*  2006    2009
 
Approve              47      52      52      55      55     41      47
Disapprove           36      34      29      30      30     33      36
DK/NA                17      14      19      15      15     26      17
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              46%    26%    67%    43%    43%    48%    33%
Disapprove           31     49      9     35     39     23     37
DK/NA                23     24     24     22     18     28     31
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              38%    53%    39%    52%    37%    49%
Disapprove           45     25     22     24     31     36
DK/NA                17     22     39     23     32     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE....... DIS....
                                                     High    Low    High
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 7   May 6   May 6   Jul 7  Sep 15
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009   2009
 
Approve              46      48      41      52      52      41     48
Disapprove           31      33      29      24      24      29     33
DK/NA                23      20      30      24      24      30     20
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              33%    25%    40%    30%    36%    31%    28%
Disapprove           47     62     34     49     50     44     48
DK/NA                20     13     25     20     14     26     24
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              35%    34%    33%    48%    27%    28%
Disapprove           51     44     47     43     48     50
DK/NA                14     22     20      9     25     23
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Dec 10  Dec 10  Dec 12
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2008    2006
 
Approve              33      33      31      36      46      46      25
Disapprove           47      48      49      40      35      35      55
DK/NA                20      19      20      24      19      19      20
 
 
21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        3%     1%     5%     3%     5%     2%     2%
Smwht satisfied      32     20     51     28     28     36     26
Smwht dissatisfied   37     45     27     39     35     39     38
Very dissatisfied    27     33     16     30     31     23     33
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Very satisfied        4%     3%     -     13%     3%     -
Smwht satisfied      33     33     37     31     34     25
Smwht dissatisfied   39     40     39     20     31     38
Very dissatisfied    22     24     24     36     32     36
DK/NA                 3      1      -      -      -      -
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT....
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 7   May 6   Mar 17  Mar 21  Mar 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2009
 
Very satisfied        3       2       2       4       2       5       2
Smwht satisfied      32      37      31      39      30      49      30
Smwht dissatisfied   37      35      36      32      39      28      39
Very dissatisfied    27      25      30      24      28      16      28
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
22. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  32%    17%    48%    32%    32%    32%    25%
No                   43     60     28     45     48     39     45
DK/NA                25     22     24     23     19     29     30
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Yes                  33%    34%    25%    44%    30%    27%
No                   51     40     40     43     38     53
DK/NA                17     26     35     14     32     20
 
TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
                                                             YES..........
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Mar 17  Aug 14  Nov 11
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009
 
Yes                  32      37      34      44      46      47      32
No                   43      40      40      32      30      31      43
DK/NA                25      23      25      24      24      22      25
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              33%    14%    56%    32%    32%    34%    25%
Disapprove           52     72     29     54     57     48     58
DK/NA                15     14     15     15     11     18     18
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Approve              32%    37%    26%    49%    27%    29%
Disapprove           63     48     52     45     49     56
DK/NA                 5     14     22      6     24     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
                     Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 3   May 6   Mar 17  Feb 5
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              33      33      33      43      39      44
Disapprove           52      54      53      43      45      37
DK/NA                15      12      13      15      16      19
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Ohio's economy - Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           33%     8%    60%    30%    35%    30%    26%
Kasich               41     69     14     41     44     38     48
DK/NA                27     24     26     29     20     32     26
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Strickland           30%    38%    16%    51%    29%    29%
Kasich               55     32     25     33     47     56
DK/NA                15     30     59     17     24     15
 
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling Ohio's state budget - Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Strickland           34%     9%    59%    32%    36%    31%    27%
Kasich               42     70     16     42     46     38     48
DK/NA                25     21     26     26     17     31     25
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Strickland           30%    39%    19%    56%    30%    27%
Kasich               56     33     26     30     47     58
DK/NA                13     28     56     14     22     15
 
 
27. Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Dems control both    19%     2%    48%    10%    19%    20%    12%
Reps control both    22     60      1     14     25     20     30
Split                52     35     49     64     51     53     53
DK/NA                 6      3      3     12      5      7      5
 
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Dems control both    12%    23%    23%    28%    17%    16%
Reps control both    28     20     18     17     25     25
Split                56     52     55     45     45     56
DK/NA                 4      6      4      9     13      3