February 24, 2010 - Fisher Ahead In Ohio Dem Primary, But Trails Portman, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Tea Party Scores Better Than Dems, GOP

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Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has opened up a 29 - 20 percent lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, up from 24 - 22 percent November 12, but both Democrats trail Republican Rob Portman by small margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Less than one in five Ohioans think the federal government does the right thing almost all or most of the time, and less than a quarter of the state's voters feel that way about state government, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Ohio voters have a net positive image of the Tea Party movement, but net negative views of the Republican and Democratic parties.

In general election matchups:
  • Portman leads Fisher 40 - 37 percent, including 39 - 27 percent among independent voters;
  • Portman tops Brunner 40 - 35 percent, including 40 - 28 percent among independents.
"Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has put some distance between himself and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, but 48 percent of Democrats are undecided about who to support in the May 4 primary," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Fisher rates slightly higher than Ms. Brunner on a number of measures of support."

Among Democrats Fisher is viewed favorably 47 - 3 percent, with 50 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Ms. Brunner gets a 37 - 3 percent favorability among Democrats, with 60 percent who don't know enough.

Ohio Democrats are evenly divided in a closer look at the two U.S. Senate candidates:
  • Saying 34 - 31 percent that Fisher is more likely than Brunner to do in office what he promises in the campaign;
  • Feeling 31 - 29 percent that he, rather than she, most shares their values;
  • Gauging 28 - 26 percent that Fisher is more liberal.
Among all Ohio voters, the Democratic Party gets a 38 - 50 percent unfavorable rating, while the Republicans get a 37 - 46 percent unfavorable score.

But voters have a 32 - 23 percent favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement, with 43 percent who haven't heard enough about it to form an opinion. Democrats view the Tea Party unfavorably by 42 - 7 percent, while Republicans are favorable 53 - 8 percent and independent voters like it 36 - 20 percent. Men like the Tea Party 40 - 25 percent, while women like it 25 - 22 percent.

Going hand-in-hand with that finding is that only 1 percent of Ohioans say the federal government does the right thing "almost all the time," while 15 percent say it does the right thing "most of the time." Conversely 42 percent say it does the right thing "only some of the time" and 40 percent say it "hardly ever" does the right thing.

Voter faith in Columbus is slightly better as 2 percent say state government does the right thing "almost all the time" and 20 percent say "most of the time." But 57 percent say "some of the time" and only 20 percent say "hardly ever."

"It is clear that the voter anger is bipartisan. They are fed up with both parties. Whether the Tea Party movement becomes a significant political force will be seen in the May primary and the November election, but clearly it has the potential to be a big factor in elections this year," said Brown.

Ohio voters approve 51 - 32 percent of the job U.S. Sen. George Voinovich is doing and approve 43 - 30 percent of the job Sen. Sherrod Brown is doing.

From February 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,662 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 604 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Fisher               29%    39%    21%
Brunner              20     19     21
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2
DK/NA                48     37     55
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na = not asked)
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*
 
Fisher               29      24      26      24      20      18      18
Brunner              20      22      17      21      16      14      16
Yates                na      na      na      na       4       6      na
Ryan                 na      na      na      na      na      12      14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1       1       2       1       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2       3       1       2       -
DK/NA                48      51      55      51      59      46      53
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fisher               37%     6%    79%    27%    35%    38%    27%
Portman              40     77      6     39     45     35     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      -      5      3      2      1
DK/NA                21     17     14     28     17     25     20
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fisher               35%    43%    38%    31%    26%    33%    45%
Portman              44     34     30     28     62     38     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      3      9      1      1      3
DK/NA                19     22     28     32     10     27     13
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Fisher               37      36      42      37      42      41      42
Portman              40      39      31      33      31      33      27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       1       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       1       2       -       2       1
DK/NA                21      24      26      26      26      24      29
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Brunner              35%     6%    74%    28%    32%    38%    22%
Portman              40     75      7     40     48     33     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      3      2      1      2
DK/NA                23     18     18     29     18     27     24
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Brunner              35%    41%    33%    39%    25%    30%    43%
Portman              42     33     39     29     63     38     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      4      1      1      2      1
DK/NA                22     24     23     31     11     29     19
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   Mar 18  Feb 4
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Brunner              35      34      39      35      40      39      38
Portman              40      38      34      34      32      34      28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       1       1       -       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       1       1       -       2       1
DK/NA                23      27      25      29      27      25      31
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            26%    12%    47%    22%    26%    26%    22%
Unfavorable          12     18      3     14     16      8     12
Hvn't hrd enough     61     67     50     64     57     64     65
REFUSED               1      3      1      1      1      2      1
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Favorable            25%    33%    17%    19%    16%    24%    33%
Unfavorable          12     14     12      6      9     10      9
Hvn't hrd enough     61     51     70     75     74     62     58
REFUSED               2      1      1      -      -      4      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   May 6   Dec 10
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            26      25      33      29      37      37      23
Unfavorable          12      15      13      17      13      13      10
Hvn't hrd enough     61      58      54      53      48      48      66
REFUSED               1       2       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            21%     7%    37%    20%    21%    21%    14%
Unfavorable          12     22      3     13     16      9     16
Hvn't hrd enough     66     69     60     67     62     70     69
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      -      -
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Favorable            24%    22%    19%    20%    14%    23%    29%
Unfavorable          17     10     10      8     13     16     10
Hvn't hrd enough     58     68     71     72     73     61     60
REFUSED               2      1      -      -      -      -      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   Feb 4   Nov 12
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            21      20      27      27      31      34      20
Unfavorable          12      18      14      16      12      10      18
Hvn't hrd enough     66      61      58      56      55      55      61
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            25%    39%     8%    29%    31%    20%    28%
Unfavorable           7      3     14      7     10      5      4
Hvn't hrd enough     66     57     78     63     57     74     67
REFUSED               1      2      1      1      1      2      1
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Favorable            23%    18%    20%    18%    55%    24%    23%
Unfavorable           8      7      2     11     14      3     12
Hvn't hrd enough     69     73     78     71     31     69     65
REFUSED               1      2      -      -      1      4      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 25% Mar 2009)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   Feb 24  Dec 10
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2010*   2008
 
Favorable            25      22      20      21      22      25      12
Unfavorable           7       7       7       6       9       7       7
Hvn't hrd enough     66      70      72      72      68      66      80
REFUSED               1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            37%    80%     7%    30%    38%    37%    51%
Unfavorable          46     12     77     48     47     46     35
Hvn't hrd enough     13      6     13     17     11     15     11
REFUSED               3      3      2      4      4      3      3
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Favorable            45%    36%    32%    29%    40%    32%    39%
Unfavorable          40     48     51     59     44     46     52
Hvn't hrd enough     13     12     13      7     14     16      7
REFUSED               2      3      4      6      2      6      3
 
 
11. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            38%     6%    82%    26%    32%    43%    29%
Unfavorable          50     84      9     56     59     41     63
Hvn't hrd enough     10      5      8     14      7     12      7
REFUSED               3      5      2      3      2      4      2
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Favorable            35%    42%    38%    39%    33%    30%    51%
Unfavorable          52     48     47     43     53     53     39
Hvn't hrd enough      9      8     12     10     12     12      5
REFUSED               4      3      3      8      2      5      5
 
 
12. Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Favorable            32%    53%     7%    36%    40%    25%    44%
Unfavorable          23      8     42     20     25     22     14
Hvn't hrd enough     43     36     51     43     34     51     41
REFUSED               2      3      1      1      1      2      1
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Favorable            33%    29%    28%    46%    40%    32%    31%
Unfavorable          25     25     20     16     20     20     29
Hvn't hrd enough     40     45     49     37     40     44     39
REFUSED               1      1      3      1      1      4      1
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              43%    27%    66%    40%    39%    47%    38%
Disapprove           30     42     12     34     41     21     35
DK/NA                26     31     22     26     19     33     27
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              40%    50%    38%    36%    34%    45%    48%
Disapprove           31     30     37     33     28     26     28
DK/NA                28     20     25     31     38     28     24
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Feb 24  Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 7   May 6   Jul 7   Sep 15
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              43      46      48      41      52      41      48
Disapprove           30      31      33      29      24      29      33
DK/NA                26      23      20      30      24      30      20
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              51%    55%    53%    49%    47%    54%    48%
Disapprove           32     26     30     36     39     26     31
DK/NA                17     18     17     15     14     20     21
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              52%    55%    50%    39%    43%    50%    49%
Disapprove           31     32     31     39     31     33     37
DK/NA                16     13     19     22     26     18     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 55% Feb 2009)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS....
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Feb 24  Nov 11  Sep 15  Jul 7   May 6   Dec 13  Nov 11
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009*   2006    2009
 
Approve              51      47      52      52      55      41      47
Disapprove           32      36      34      29      30      33      36
DK/NA                17      17      14      19      15      26      17
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              39%    24%    59%    37%    38%    41%    38%
Disapprove           22     32     10     22     26     18     24
DK/NA                39     44     30     41     36     41     39
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              40%    42%    37%    35%    38%    34%    47%
Disapprove           23     22     22     31     18     24     18
DK/NA                38     36     41     34     45     42     35
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              39      39      44      39      49
Disapprove           22      23      21      24      17
DK/NA                39      37      35      38      33
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              36%    17%    56%    37%    33%    39%    28%
Disapprove           25     43      9     24     31     19     28
DK/NA                39     40     35     39     36     42     44
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              39%    36%    43%    30%    31%    34%    42%
Disapprove           26     21     22     30     26     32     24
DK/NA                35     43     34     39     42     33     34
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
                                                             APPROVE......
                                                             High    Low
                     Feb 24  Nov 12  Sep 16  Jul 7   May 6   May 6   Feb 24
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2010
 
Approve              36      38      41      38      45      45      36
Disapprove           25      25      23      25      20      20      25
DK/NA                39      37      36      37      34      34      39
 
 
30. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Fisher               34%    40%    30%
Brunner              31     29     33
NO DIFF(VOL)          4      4      3
DK/NA                31     27     34
 
 
31. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Fisher               31%    36%    28%
Brunner              29     25     32
NO DIFF(VOL)          2      2      1
DK/NA                38     37     39
 
 
32. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as more consistently liberal Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Fisher               28%    32%    25%
Brunner              26     27     25
NO DIFF(VOL)          3      3      3
DK/NA                43     38     47
 
 
33. (If registered Democrat) Does the fact that Jennifer Brunner is a woman make it more likely you will vote for her in the primary, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
More likely          11%     2%    16%
Less likely           3      4      2
Doesn't make diff    85     93     80
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
34. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Almost all the time   1%     1%     3%     1%     1%     1%     1%
Most of the time     15      8     24     11     13     16     13
Some of the time     42     39     53     40     36     48     40
Hardly ever          40     51     20     47     48     33     45
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Almost all the time   3%     1%     1%     1%     3%     1%     1%
Most of the time     13     16     15     10     10     19     15
Some of the time     42     46     37     35     40     41     44
Hardly ever          41     36     42     52     46     39     38
DK/NA                 1      1      4      3      1      -      1
 
 
35. How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Columbus to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Almost all the time   2%     1%     4%     2%     1%     3%     1%
Most of the time     20     17     27     16     20     19     20
Some of the time     57     58     55     59     53     60     61
Hardly ever          20     22     13     21     24     16     16
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      2      -
 
                                                               Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Almost all the time   1%     2%     3%     1%     4%     2%     -
Most of the time     26     18     14     17     18     21     19
Some of the time     56     59     61     47     53     56     56
Hardly ever          16     18     18     34     24     20     23
DK/NA                 -      2      4      1      1      1      1