September 27, 2011 - Women, Union Households Keep Ohio Gov Under Water, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Voters Want To Repeal SB 5 Limiting Unions

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A 41-point disapproval from union households and a 16-point disapproval from women keep Ohio Gov. John Kasich under water with a negative 40 - 49 percent overall job approval, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a negative 35 - 50 percent approval in a July 20 survey from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Ohio voters support 51 - 38 percent repeal in a November referendum of SB 5, the law limiting collective bargaining for public employees, compared to 56 - 32 percent in July.

Republican voters approve of Gov. Kasich 72 - 18 percent, but disapproval is 74 - 17 percent among Democrats and 48 - 38 percent among independent voters. Men split 45 - 46 percent while women disapprove 51 - 35 percent.

Disapproval among voters in households with a union member is 68 - 27 percent.

In the SB 5 referendum, Republicans say keep the law 65 - 23 percent, up from 56 - 35 percent July 20. Men oppose SB 5 50 - 45 percent, compared to 55 - 37 percent. Women want to repeal the law 53 - 31 percent, compared to 56 - 28 percent in July.

"Ohio voters seem to be warming a little toward Gov. John Kasich, although he is still under water when it comes to public opinion," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The governor still has more than three years left until he faces the voters again and his numbers are moving in the right direction.

"But SB 5 is another story. Support for repealing the bill in the November referendum has dropped from a 24-point to a 13-point margin. Backers of SB 5 have only six weeks to make up the difference, although public opinion appears to be moving in their direction."

"The referendum on SB 5 also is a referendum on John Kasich," Brown added.

Another area where Kasich shows improvement is voter perception of the fairness of his budget. Ohioans say it is unfair 49 - 36 percent, up from 50 - 32 percent in July.

"Kasich sure has a ways to go to get his head above water, especially among women and union members, but his overall numbers are getting better," said Brown.

Looking at the elements of SB 5, Ohio voters:
  • Oppose 58 - 36 percent banning public employees from striking;
  • Support 60 - 31 percent replacing automatic pay increases based on seniority with increases based on merit;
  • Oppose 53 - 41 percent eliminating seniority rights as the sole factor in layoffs;
  • Support 59 - 35 percent requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance costs;
  • Support 56 - 33 percent requiring public employees to pay 10 percent of their wages toward their pensions;
  • Oppose 54 - 39 percent banning public employees from bargaining over health insurance.
Ohio voters oppose 56 - 32 percent Kasich's proposal to lease the Ohio Turnpike to a private company to raise money to fund transportation projects.

One Ohio politician who voters think is doing a good job is U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, who earns a 41 - 23 percent approval rating.

From September 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,301 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.


9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              40%    72%    17%    38%    45%    35%    48%
Disapprove           49     18     74     48     46     51     36
DK/NA                11     10      9     15      9     14     16
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              43%    36%    39%    39%    45%    27%
Disapprove           52     50     50     48     45     68
DK/NA                 6     14     11     13     10      5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              40      35      38      30      30
Disapprove           49      50      49      46      22
DK/NA                11      15      13      23      48
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              41%    65%    31%    35%    46%    37%    43%
Disapprove           23      8     34     24     26     21     16
DK/NA                35     27     36     42     28     42     41
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              41%    34%    34%    53%    49%    35%
Disapprove           25     21     27     27     26     30
DK/NA                34     45     39     20     25     35
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Sep 27  Jul 21  May 19  Mar 24  Jan 20
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              41      40      38      30      34
Disapprove           23      21      21      25      16
DK/NA                35      39      41      45      51
 
 
15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Very satisfied        3%     5%     4%     1%     3%     4%     2%
Smwht satisfied      31     48     23     28     33     30     41
Smwht dissatisfied   32     26     33     35     30     34     27
Very dissatisfied    32     19     39     35     34     31     30
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      -      1      -
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Very satisfied        5%     3%     6%     3%     2%     3%
Smwht satisfied      35     35     26     25     32     23
Smwht dissatisfied   29     28     38     38     39     33
Very dissatisfied    32     34     30     32     25     41
DK/NA                 -      1      1      2      2      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23  Jan 19  Mar 21  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2007    2011
 
Very satisfied        3       3       3       3       3       5       3
Smwht satisfied      31      31      30      26      28      49      26
Smwht dissatisfied   32      32      32      34      39      28      34
Very dissatisfied    32      32      35      36      28      16      36
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
16. As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              40%    65%    18%    41%    46%    34%    46%
Oppose               50     26     67     51     49     50     42
DK/NA                11      9     14      8      6     16     13
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Support              39%    38%    39%    46%    39%    25%
Oppose               52     51     51     44     47     70
DK/NA                 9     11     10     10     14      5
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              40      34      38      41
Oppose               50      52      50      48
DK/NA                11      14      12      10
 
17. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Kept                 38%    65%    18%    35%    45%    31%    42%
Repealed             51     23     71     55     50     53     43
DK/NA                11     12     11      9      5     16     15
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Kept                 42%    36%    36%    36%    39%    23%
Repealed             50     53     52     52     48     72
DK/NA                 8     11     12     12     13      4
 
TREND: As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Kept                 38      32      36
Repealed             51      56      54
DK/NA                11      12      10
 
 
20. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Yes                  41%    70%    24%    35%    46%    36%    44%
No                   50     22     65     56     49     51     42
DK/NA                 9      8     11      9      5     13     14
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Yes                  43%    37%    40%    42%    43%    24%
No                   52     51     48     50     44     70
DK/NA                 4     12     11      8     13      6
 
TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Yes                  41      38      38      37
No                   50      50      52      55
DK/NA                 9      11      10       8
 
 
21. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              36%    70%    12%    35%    43%    30%    41%
Oppose               58     25     84     57     55     61     51
DK/NA                 5      5      5      8      2      9      8
 
                     Union
                     HsHld
 
Support              21%
Oppose               74
DK/NA                 5
 
TREND: The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              36      36      35      35
Oppose               58      56      58      58
DK/NA                 5       8       7       7
 
 
22. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              59%    87%    35%    61%    61%    56%    66%
Oppose               35     10     56     32     32     37     28
DK/NA                 7      3      9      7      7      7      7
 
                     Union
                     HsHld
 
Support              42%
Oppose               52
DK/NA                 6
 
TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law)
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              59      60      59      66
Oppose               35      33      34      27
DK/NA                 7       7       7       8
 
 
23. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              39%    62%    23%    37%    41%    37%    43%
Oppose               54     30     72     56     54     54     46
DK/NA                 7      8      5      7      4     10     11
 
                     Union
                     HsHld
 
Support              28%
Oppose               66
DK/NA                 6
 
TREND: The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (*May 2011 "bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees")
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011*
 
Support              39      36      38
Oppose               54      58      54
DK/NA                 7       6       8
 
 
24. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              56%    78%    39%    56%    59%    52%    57%
Oppose               33     16     49     31     33     34     31
DK/NA                11      7     12     12      8     14     12
 
                     Union
                     HsHld
 
Support              44%
Oppose               45
DK/NA                11
 
TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Support              56      58      58
Oppose               33      33      34
DK/NA                11       9       9
 
 
25. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              60%    69%    52%    62%    66%    55%    58%
Oppose               31     25     38     29     29     34     32
DK/NA                 8      6     10      9      6     11     10
 
                     Union
                     HsHld
 
Support              57%
Oppose               39
DK/NA                 4
 
TREND: The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Support              60      56      57
Oppose               31      35      35
DK/NA                 8       9       7
 
 
26. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Support              41%    59%    26%    44%    55%    30%    46%
Oppose               53     36     69     49     42     62     48
DK/NA                 6      5      5      7      4      8      6
 
                     Union
                     HsHld
 
Support              30%
Oppose               66
DK/NA                 3
 
TREND: The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18
                     2011    2011    2011
 
Support              41      45      45
Oppose               53      49      50
DK/NA                 6       6       5
 
 
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Approve              35%    72%    11%    31%    43%    29%    44%
Disapprove           53     18     78     55     49     57     41
DK/NA                12      9     11     14      8     15     15
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Approve              40%    32%    41%    35%    35%    27%
Disapprove           53     57     48     53     46     69
DK/NA                 8     10     11     12     18      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20  May 18  Mar 23
                     2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              35      32      35      31
Disapprove           53      54      53      51
DK/NA                12      14      12      18
 
 
32. Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Fair                 36%    67%    17%    33%    44%    29%    42%
Unfair               49     18     71     48     43     54     39
DK/NA                15     14     11     19     13     17     19
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Fair                 38%    35%    39%    39%    34%    28%
Unfair               45     53     47     46     46     63
DK/NA                17     12     14     14     20      9
 
TREND: Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20
                     2011    2011
 
Fair                 36      32
Unfair               49      50
DK/NA                15      18
 
 
33. What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Too far              35%    12%    55%    33%    32%    38%    28%
Not far enough       26     34     20     24     27     25     28
About right          29     44     15     31     34     24     31
DK/NA                11     10     10     12      8     14     13
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Too far              33%    36%    29%    35%    36%    46%
Not far enough       28     26     24     23     23     23
About right          29     27     34     30     29     23
DK/NA                10     10     12     12     13      8
 
TREND: What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right?
                     Sep 27  Jul 20
                     2011    2011
 
Too far              35      34
Not far enough       26      25
About right          29      30
DK/NA                11      11
 
 
34. Governor Kasich says he would like to lease the Ohio Turnpike to a private company and use the funds the state would receive to fund other transportation projects for Ohio. Do you think leasing the Ohio Turnpike is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                                               WtBrnAgn
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Evnglcl
 
Good idea            32%    55%    20%    28%    35%    29%    31%
Bad idea             56     32     71     60     57     56     52
DK/NA                11     14      9     12      8     15     17
 
                                                        Union
                     Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthW   WstCnt HsHld
 
Good idea            39%    27%    26%    34%    39%    19%
Bad idea             48     64     65     53     44     73
DK/NA                13      9      9     13     17      8
 
 
 

Demographic Summary