March 2, 2012 - Ohio GOP Race Going Down To The Wire, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Santorum At 35% To Romney's 31%

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The Republican presidential face-off in Ohio is too close to call as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has 35 percent of likely Republican primary voters to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 36 - 29 percent Santorum lead in a February 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, the day before the hotly-contested Michigan primary.

In today's survey, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 17 percent, with 12 percent for Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. Among voters who name a candidate, 34 percent say they still might change their mind by Tuesday.

Santorum leads Romney 34 - 28 percent among men and 37 - 33 percent among women, 40 - 27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42 - 25 percent among Tea Party members. Romney leads Santorum 46 - 26 percent among self-described moderates.

"At this point, the Buckeye State is too close to call and is clearly a two-man race between Sen. Rick Santorum and Gov. Mitt Romney," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A third of the electorate say they still might change their mind. With five days until Super Tuesday, they certainly will be exposed to enough negative television ads to provide fodder for those who might want to switch - or switch off."

From February 29 - March 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 517 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich             17%    18%    15%    18%    13%    21%    13%    22%    13%
Romney               31     28     33     27     46     23     37     25     32
Santorum             35     34     37     40     26     40     35     42     35
Paul                 12     14      9     10     11      9      9      8     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6      5      5      5      7      6      3      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Gingrich             14%    18%    16%    15%    17%    15%    19%    20%    10%
Romney               37     27     25     30     40     33     29     28     33
Santorum             34     36     37     40     27     32     34     36     42
Paul                 11     12     18     11      5     13     11     13     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 4      6      3      4     10      7      7      3      3
 
TREND: If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Gingrich             17      17      20
Romney               31      29      29 
Santorum             35      36      36 
Paul                 12      11       9 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       - 
DK/NA                 6       6       6 
 
 
1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1....
                            CANDIDATE CHOICE
                     Tot    NG     MR     RS 
 
Mind made up         65%    50%    65%    69%
Might change         34     48     34     30 
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1 
 
TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1 
                     Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Mind made up         65      52      48
Might change         34      45      50 
DK/NA                 1       3       3
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            48%    49%    48%    56%    34%    59%    44%    62%    42%
Unfavorable          38     41     36     33     49     28     43     31     44
Hvn't hrd enough     11      9     13      9     15     10     11      5     12
REFUSED               2      2      3      1      2      3      1      2      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            52%    46%    45%    51%    47%    46%    50%    48%    55%
Unfavorable          38     38     37     39     42     38     30     43     40
Hvn't hrd enough      9     12     17      9      6     13     17      7      6
REFUSED               1      3      1      2      6      3      3      2      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            48      49      49
Unfavorable          38      36      34 
Hvn't hrd enough     11      12      16 
REFUSED               2       3       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    55%    50%    56%    58%    47%    61%    61%    50%
Unfavorable          34     31     37     33     27     39     26     29     37
Hvn't hrd enough     11     12     11     10     14     12     11      7     12
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      1      2      3      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            64%    47%    53%    51%    57%    47%    50%    57%    60%
Unfavorable          30     36     33     38     28     39     39     27     33
Hvn't hrd enough      6     14     13      9     11     12     10     14      5
REFUSED               -      3      -      2      4      2      2      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            53      52      61
Unfavorable          34      32      25 
Hvn't hrd enough     11      13      12 
REFUSED               2       4       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            57%    59%    55%    64%    43%    60%    58%    67%    54%
Unfavorable          24     24     24     21     31     17     25     21     26
Hvn't hrd enough     17     14     20     14     22     20     15     10     19
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      4      3      1      2      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            59%    56%    59%    60%    51%    52%    53%    61%    67%
Unfavorable          24     24     19     25     28     28     21     20     23
Hvn't hrd enough     16     17     22     14     16     17     25     16     10
REFUSED               1      3      -      2      5      3      -      3      -
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            57      59      62
Unfavorable          24      16       7 
Hvn't hrd enough     17      24      31 
REFUSED               2       1       -
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Favorable            32%    33%    30%    31%    30%    25%    33%    28%    34%
Unfavorable          42     46     38     46     35     44     44     48     42
Hvn't hrd enough     24     19     29     20     32     29     21     19     23
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      2      2      2      5      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS.....    ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     18-49  50-64  65+    <30K  30-50  50-100 >100
 
Favorable            32%    32%    31%    35%    28%    32%    31%    35%    28%
Unfavorable          50     38     40     42     44     34     41     43     55
Hvn't hrd enough     17     27     29     19     23     33     28     19     15
REFUSED               2      3      1      4      5      1      1      4      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Mar 02  Feb 27  Feb 15
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Favorable            32      32      36
Unfavorable          42      43      33 
Hvn't hrd enough     24      24      29 
REFUSED               3       1       3