April 18, 2013 - Big Gender Gap As Kasich Leads 2014 Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; He Leads Dem Challengers In Early Look At 2014 Race

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With a commanding lead among men, Ohio Gov. John Kasich leads likely Democratic challengers in an early look at the 2014 governor's race, 46 - 37 percent over Cuyahoga County Executive Ed Fitzgerald and 45 - 38 percent over U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The Republican governor's margins remain virtually unchanged from the results of a February 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, Gov. Kasich leads Fitzgerald 51 - 32 percent among men, while women are divided 41 - 41 percent. Kasich tops Cordray 52 - 34 percent among men, while women go 43 percent for Cordray and 39 percent for the incumbent.

"In a state where self-described Democrats outnumber Republicans 35 - 27 percent, Kasich seems to be in reasonably good shape as he looks ahead to the 2014 gubernatorial election," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The fact that he leads his two potential Democratic opponents by 20 and 17 points respectively among the key independent voting bloc is a good indication that he starts the campaign with the voting public seeing him positively.

"There is a large gender gap in the Ohio electorate when it comes to Kasich's reelection. The gender gap is a factor in virtually all political campaigns these days, but its size at this point in this race seems a bit larger than normal."

Ohio voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Kasich is doing and give him a 46 - 29 percent favorability rating.

For Cordray, 66 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Fitzgerald, 76 percent don't know enough.

"These numbers indicate that County Executive Ed Fitzgerald and Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray are not well-known to voters," Brown added. "Should they undertake the race, they will need to define themselves positively in the eyes of the mass of voters who don't yet have an opinion about either man,

"One bad sign for Kasich is that he does not hit 50 percent in the reelection matchups or in the general question of whether he deserves reelection."

Kasich deserves reelection, Ohio voters say 46 - 37 percent, including 51 - 35 percent among independent voters.

In the Fitzgerald-Kasich matchup, the governor leads 86 - 2 percent among Republicans and 48 - 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to Fitzgerald 77 - 10 percent. Against Cordray, Kasich leads 88 - 4 percent among Republicans and 47 - 30 percent among independent voters, while losing Democrats 78 - 9 percent.

In each race, independent voters provide the governor's winning margin.

Kasich seems to have something of a moderate ideological image: 26 percent say he is too conservative, while 10 percent say he is too liberal and 47 percent say he is "about right."

Views of the less-known Fitzgerald and Cordray are unformed, as about half of voters in each case say they can't place them on the ideological scale.

Voters are split 24 - 26 percent on whether Fitzgerald has the right experience to be governor. Cordray has the right experience, voters say 31 - 27 percent.

Underpinning Kasich's early strength is a generally positive review from voters about his handling of the economy, 49 - 41 percent approval. A total of 38 percent of voters rate Ohio's economy as "excellent" or "good," the highest scores ever. Another 60 percent say the economy is "not so good" or "poor."

From April 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,138 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Fitzgerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Fitzgerald           37%     2%    77%    28%    32%    41%    32%    68%
Kasich               46     86     10     48     51     41     50      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      1      3      1      2      6
DK/NA                15     11     11     21     13     17     15     16
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Fitzgerald           34%    32%    27%    34%    30%    35%
Kasich               49     50     55     56     54     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      -      3      -
DK/NA                15     15     16     10     12     18
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Fitzgerald           36%    37%    43%    33%    26%    32%    42%    35%
Kasich               47     45     39     50     60     49     42     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      1      -      4      3      -
DK/NA                14     15     16     15     13     14     12     16
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Fitzgerald the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 18  Feb 28
                     2013    2013
 
Fitzgerald           37      35
Kasich               46      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                15      17
 
 
2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Cordray the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Cordray              38%     4%    78%    30%    34%    43%    34%    74%
Kasich               45     88      9     47     52     39     50     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      2      2      1      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      1      2      1      1      1
DK/NA                13      8     10     20     10     15     14     12
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Cordray              37%    33%    29%    34%    30%    37%
Kasich               46     51     54     55     55     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      -      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2      -      2      1
DK/NA                15     13     13     11     10     17
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Cordray              40%    38%    44%    35%    31%    32%    43%    39%
Kasich               44     46     39     51     58     51     42     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      1      -      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      3      -      -      3      1      1
DK/NA                13     13     13     13     11     13     11     13
 
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Cordray the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Apr 18  Feb 28
                     2013    2013
 
Cordray              38      38
Kasich               45      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                13      16
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            46%    73%    20%    51%    52%    41%    49%    26%
Unfavorable          29      7     51     25     26     31     29     34
Hvn't hrd enough     24     19     28     22     20     27     21     38
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            52%    44%    38%    52%    61%    44%    45%    49%
Unfavorable          37     26     29     31     29     17     32     33
Hvn't hrd enough      8     29     32     15      8     38     22     16
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 18  Feb 28  Dec 11  Jun 29  Apr 29  Feb 28  Dec 10
                     2013    2013    2012    2010    2010    2013    2008
 
Favorable            46      48      40      28      27      48      18
Unfavorable          29      32      34      19      10      32       8
Hvn't hrd enough     24      17      24      52      62      17      73
REFUSED               1       3       2       1       1       3       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Richard Cordray favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            21%    10%    34%    22%    21%    22%    20%    33%
Unfavorable          11     18      3     11     15      8     12      2
Hvn't hrd enough     66     71     63     66     62     70     66     65
REFUSED               1      1      -      2      2      1      1      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            30%    19%    21%    24%    27%    16%    21%    26%
Unfavorable          14     10      6     15     22      8     12     13
Hvn't hrd enough     55     70     72     60     48     75     65     61
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      3      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Cordray favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Apr 18  Feb 28  Dec 11  Aug 14
                     2013    2013    2012    2008
 
Favorable            21      25      19      19
Unfavorable          11      11      11       4
Hvn't hrd enough     66      62      70      74
REFUSED               1       2       1       3
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Ed Fitzgerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            14%     5%    27%    12%    14%    15%    13%    27%
Unfavorable           8     11      3      9     11      6      9      6
Hvn't hrd enough     76     83     70     77     73     79     77     66
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Favorable            17%    14%    15%    15%    13%    13%    17%    13%
Unfavorable           8      8      7      8     11      9      7      9
Hvn't hrd enough     73     77     77     76     73     78     73     78
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      3      -      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Ed Fitzgerald favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Apr 18  Feb 28  Dec 11
                     2013    2013    2012
 
Favorable            14      13      10
Unfavorable           8       5       5
Hvn't hrd enough     76      80      84
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              52%    76%    30%    55%    57%    47%    54%    32%
Disapprove           34     11     55     33     29     38     32     50
DK/NA                15     13     15     12     14     16     14     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              54%    51%    46%    56%    60%    56%    48%    54%
Disapprove           38     32     36     34     32     23     39     35
DK/NA                 8     17     17     10      8     21     14     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 30% Jan 2011)
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 18  Feb 28  Dec 11  Jun 27  May 09  Feb 28  Mar 23
                     2013    2013    2012    2012    2012    2013    2011*
 
Approve              52      53      42      40      41      53      30
Disapprove           34      32      35      44      44      32      46
DK/NA                15      14      23      16      15      14      23
 
 
11. Do you feel that John Kasich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    74%    19%    51%    50%    42%    48%    20%
No/Does not          37     10     65     35     35     39     35     61
DK/NA                17     16     16     14     15     19     17     18
 
                     WHITE.................................
                     COLLEGE DEG
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         47%    49%    50%    57%    52%    45%
No/Does not          38     33     32     33     33     36
DK/NA                15     18     18     10     15     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes/Deserves         45%    46%    42%    49%    53%    48%    41%    48%
No/Does not          40     37     41     37     30     32     42     38
DK/NA                15     18     17     13     16     19     17     15
 
TREND: Do you feel that John Kasich deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Apr 18  Feb 28  Dec 11
                     2013    2013    2012
 
Yes/Deserves         46      46      36
No/Does not          37      36      43
DK/NA                17      18      21
 
 
12. Do you think John Kasich is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal              10%     9%     9%    11%    11%     9%    10%    18%
Conservative         26      8     45     24     26     26     25     37
About right          47     72     26     52     49     46     50     26
DK/NA                16     12     20     13     13     19     16     20
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Liberal               5%    12%    12%     8%     6%     9%    13%     9%
Conservative         37     22     24     33     31     24     26     27
About right          47     47     46     48     54     51     43     49
DK/NA                11     18     19     10     10     16     18     15
 
 
13. Do you think Ed Fitzgerald is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal              13%    24%     3%    15%    17%    10%    14%     3%
Conservative          3      4      4      3      3      4      3      5
About right          28     16     43     24     28     28     24     52
DK/NA                55     56     50     58     52     58     58     39
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Liberal              16%    12%    10%    15%    18%    13%    15%    13%
Conservative          3      4      4      3      4      4      3      4
About right          26     29     33     28     18     37     30     22
DK/NA                56     55     53     54     60     46     52     62
 
 
14. Do you think Richard Cordray is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liberal              17%    31%     3%    19%    23%    12%    19%     2%
Conservative          4      -      5      6      4      4      4      6
About right          33     22     48     29     32     34     31     53
DK/NA                46     47     44     46     41     51     47     39
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Liberal              19%    16%    11%    23%    24%    14%    18%    19%
Conservative          2      5      6      2      3      4      5      3
About right          35     33     36     34     29     39     30     33
DK/NA                44     47     47     41     43     43     47     45
 
 
15. Do you think Ed Fitzgerald has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Ohio or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  24%    12%    40%    19%    26%    22%    20%    47%
No                   26     41     14     27     30     22     27     18
DK/NA                50     48     46     54     44     56     53     35
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  22%    25%    26%    26%    18%    31%    29%    17%
No                   23     27     25     26     30     19     27     29
DK/NA                55     49     49     49     52     49     45     55
 
 
16. Do you think Richard Cordray has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Ohio or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  31%    21%    44%    28%    33%    30%    30%    36%
No                   27     39     16     30     31     24     28     25
DK/NA                42     41     40     42     36     46     42     38
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Yes                  36%    29%    31%    35%    38%    33%    34%    29%
No                   24     28     26     31     28     29     26     28
DK/NA                40     42     44     34     34     38     40     43
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the economy?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              49%    70%    24%    58%    55%    44%    51%    27%
Disapprove           41     20     66     37     36     46     38     65
DK/NA                10     10     11      5      9     11     10      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Approve              55%    47%    42%    57%    59%    54%    45%    49%
Disapprove           38     42     47     39     33     35     45     41
DK/NA                 7     11     11      4      8     11     10      9
 
 
18. Would you describe the state of Ohio's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Excellent             2%     2%     2%     1%     2%     1%     2%     3%
Good                 36     44     25     42     46     28     38     17
Not so good          44     41     51     37     38     48     42     55
Poor                 16     11     20     18     12     21     16     25
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      3      2      2      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Excellent             2%     2%     1%     2%     3%     3%     2%     1%
Good                 45     33     31     39     50     37     32     39
Not so good          41     45     44     46     36     46     45     41
Poor                 11     19     22     11      6     12     18     18
DK/NA                 2      2      2      1      4      3      3      2
 
TREND: Would you describe the state of Ohio's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? (*Low also 5% Dec 2008, Feb 2009)
                                                             EXCELLENT+GOOD
                                                             High    Low
                     Apr 18  Mar 18  Feb 06  Dec 11  Aug 14  Apr 18  Mar 18
                     2013    2009    2009    2008    2008    2013    2009*
                                                                    
Excellent             2       -       -       -       -       2       -
Good                 36       5       5       5      14      36       5
Not so good          44      36      33      36      49      44      36
Poor                 16      59      61      58      36      16      59
DK/NA                 2       -       1       1       -       2       -
 
 
19. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Better               43%    51%    41%    39%    51%    36%    44%    40%
Worse                13     11     14     16      9     16     12     15
The same             43     38     45     45     39     46     42     45
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Better               54%    39%    36%    47%    64%    49%    42%    41%
Worse                 6     16     17      8      4     12     13     12
The same             39     44     45     45     31     38     44     45
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -      1      2
 
TREND: Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     Apr 18  Dec 11
                     2013    2012
 
Better               43      42
Worse                13      19
The same             43      38
DK/NA                 1       1
 
 
20. Compared to most other states, would you say Ohio's economy is better, worse, or about the same?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Better               25%    36%    16%    27%    31%    19%    26%    13%
Worse                19     17     21     20     17     21     19     22
About the same       49     40     56     47     47     51     48     58
DK/NA                 7      7      6      7      5      9      7      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K  50-100 >100K   18-34  35-54  55+
 
Better               32%    22%    21%    28%    35%    22%    24%    27%
Worse                16     20     20     19     14     22     23     15
About the same       46     50     50     47     47     53     44     50
DK/NA                 6      8      9      5      4      4      9      7
 
 
 

Demographic Summary