March 14, 2012 - Favorite Son Santorum Thumps Romney In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Santorum Ties Obama In Fall Matchup

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Pennsylvania Republicans are going for favorite son Rick Santorum big time, giving the former U.S. Senator a 36 - 22 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the Keystone State's presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 12 percent, with 8 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

In a head-to-head matchup, Santorum tops Romney 52 - 32 percent among Republican voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

If Santorum gets to November, he gets 44 percent of Pennsylvania voters, to 45 percent for President Barack Obama - too close to call. In other possible November matchups:
  • President Obama tops Romney 46 - 40 percent;
  • Obama beats Gingrich 50 - 37 percent;
  • The president leads Paul 45 - 40 percent.
In the four-person Republican contest, Santorum leads Romney 41 - 18 percent among women and 30 - 27 percent among men, 50 - 21 percent among Tea Party members, 44 - 20 percent among self-described conservatives and 46 - 17 percent among white evangelical Christians. Romney leads 29 - 20 percent among self-described moderates.

"Pennsylvania Republicans are turning to their native son, former Sen. Rick Santorum. The last time we surveyed the Keystone State, during the Gingrich boomlet in December, the former House Speaker led the GOP pack with 31 percent, followed by Gov. Mitt Romney with 17 percent and Santorum with 9 percent," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Pennsylvania Republican women like Santorum over Romney more than men."

"Santorum's lead among conservatives, Tea Party members and white evangelical Christians is what we have found in other states," Malloy added.

"What we've also seen in other states is that Romney comes from behind, riding a tidal wave of negative advertising. Whether attack ads work against a native son remains to be seen."

Among all Pennsylvania voters, President Obama gets a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, his best score in months, and a split 47 - 47 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for GOP presidential contenders all are negative:
  • Santorum: 39 - 44 percent;
  • Romney: 33 - 43 percent;
  • Gingrich: 25 - 55 percent;
  • Paul: 30 - 31 percent, with 37 percent who don't know enough about him.
Pennsylvania voters are divided 47 - 49 percent on whether Obama deserves to be reelected.

"President Barack Obama has lackluster approval, favorability and reelection numbers in Pennsylvania, but this is his highest approval rating in a year and his best performance in months running against Mitt Romney," Malloy said.

"Romney's favorability drops from a positive 34 - 30 percent in December to a negative 33 - 43 percent today."

U.S. Senate Race

Voters give Sen. Robert Casey Jr. a 46 - 27 percent approval rating and say 48 - 30 percent he deserves to be reelected. Casey tops an unnamed Republican challenger 46 - 34 percent.

Voters approve 42 - 28 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey is doing.

"Senator Robert Casey, who is up for reelection, has a 12-point margin over an unnamed Republican challenger. But he probably would sleep better if he could break 50 percent on his job approval and reelection numbers," Malloy said.

From March 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,256 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 508 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Gingrich              8%     9%     7%     9%     7%     6%     9%    11%     7%
Romney               22     27     18     20     29     17     26     21     23
Santorum             36     30     41     44     20     46     27     50     31
Paul                 12     17      7      9     19      7     15     11     12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      -      4      1      2      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      2      1      5      2      4      -      3
DK/NA                18     12     24     17     16     21     18      8     21
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Gingrich              9%     7%     8%    10%     8%     6%     7%     7%    11%
Romney               41     15     14     18     19     38     20     24     24
Santorum             26     40     49     37     35     27     36     35     34
Paul                  9     13      6     16     13     13     18     10      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      -      -      1      1      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      2      3      3      2      4      2
DK/NA                10     21     18     17     22     12     18     18     19
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q27
                     Knowldg       Moral  Defeat MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q26
                     Exprnc Leader Char   Obama  Economy
 
Gingrich             10%     8%     2%    14%     8%
Romney               24     19     10     38     23
Santorum             22     36     55     30     39
Paul                 17     15     10      4     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      1      -      4
DK/NA                20     16     21     12     13
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican)If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (na=not asked/2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Gingrich              8      31      13       4       4       5
Romney               22      17      17      18      21      21
Santorum             36       9      13      12      14      16
Paul                 12       7       5       5       5       6
Bachmann             na       3       2       6      11       5
Cain                 na       3      17       5       4       8
Huntsman             na       3       2       2       1       1
Johnson              na      na      na      na      na       -
McCotter             na      na      na      na       -      na
Palin                na      na      na       8      12      11
Pawlenty             na      na      na      na       2       4
Perry                na       3       5      16       8      na
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       4       2       2       2       3
DK/NA                18      18      21      19      14      17
 
2. (If Registered Republican) Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Romney               32%    38%    28%    25%    50%    24%    40%    24%    36%
Santorum             52     48     55     61     31     60     45     67     46
DK/NA                16     14     17     13     19     16     15      9     18
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Romney               52%    25%    21%    27%    28%    55%    34%    31%    33%
Santorum             35     58     67     59     49     39     50     54     52
DK/NA                13     17     12     13     23      7     17     15     15
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q27
                     Knowldg       Moral  Defeat MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q26
                     Exprnc Leader Char   Obama  Economy
 
Romney               37%    33%    14%    49%    34%
Santorum             44     49     70     44     51
DK/NA                19     18     17      7     15
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                45%     8%    82%    42%    46%    45%
Santorum             44     85     10     42     46     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      2      8      3      4
DK/NA                 6      4      5      6      4      7
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Obama                55%    35%    30%    39%    16%    45%    42%
Santorum             38     53     60     50     76     44     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      4      3      3      3      1
DK/NA                 5      6      6      8      4      7      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Obama                57%    40%    44%    43%    49%    49%    47%    47%    42%
Santorum             36     48     43     48     43     43     44     43     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      2      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      5      6      3      3      1      3      3      4
DK/NA                 5      6      7      4      5      5      5      5      6
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Mar 14  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15
                     2012    2011    2011    2011
 
Obama                45      45      45      49
Santorum             44      42      43      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       3       4
DK/NA                 6       8       7       7
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                46%     8%    86%    41%    47%    46%
Romney               40     80      4     41     41     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      2      8      4      5
DK/NA                 8      6      7      8      7      9
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Obama                52%    37%    31%    40%    17%    45%    42%
Romney               39     46     54     46     66     42     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      3      1      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      6      6      4      7      4      2
DK/NA                 6      9      8      9      9      8      6
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Obama                55%    42%    49%    44%    49%    44%    46%    50%    44%
Romney               37     41     35     41     41     45     41     35     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      2      1      1      1      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      5      7      4      2      3      5      4      4
DK/NA                 6      9      8      8      7      6      7      8      8
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Obama                46      46      44      45      42      47
Romney               40      43      43      43      44      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2       2       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       3       2       3       4
DK/NA                 8       6       8       8       8       6
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                50%    12%    89%    47%    49%    52%
Gingrich             37     77      4     36     41     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      2      9      4      6
DK/NA                 6      5      4      6      5      7
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Obama                59%    40%    33%    48%    22%    51%    46%
Gingrich             32     45     52     39     64     37     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      2      1      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      5      5      6      5      6
DK/NA                 4      7      7      7      7      6      4
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Obama                61%    46%    52%    51%    51%    51%    51%    54%    47%
Gingrich             31     40     32     39     40     40     38     34     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      3      -      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      8      3      3      3      5      4      5
DK/NA                 4      7      6      4      5      4      4      6      7
 
TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10
                     2012    2011    2011
 
Obama                50      48      48
Gingrich             37      40      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5       4       4
DK/NA                 6       6       8
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Ron Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Obama                45%    11%    82%    39%    43%    47%
Paul                 40     71      9     43     44     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6     10      2      8      4      7
DK/NA                 8      7      7      8      7      9
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Obama                55%    34%    29%    46%    17%    46%    40%
Paul                 35     48     53     39     63     39     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      2      1      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      7      7      7      7      6      6
DK/NA                 5      9      8      6     10      7      5
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Obama                57%    40%    47%    43%    46%    46%    42%    50%    47%
Paul                 32     43     34     45     42     42     45     37     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      1      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      9      5      5      4      4      5      9
DK/NA                 5      9      9      7      6      7      7      7      9
 
 
7. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
More                 29%    37%    26%    23%    31%    26%
Less                 29     26     25     39     27     30
About the same       42     35     49     37     41     42
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
More                 27%    26%    26%    29%    31%    26%    35%
Less                 30     31     32     28     28     33     27
About the same       42     41     41     41     40     41     37
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
More                 31%    27%    26%    32%    28%    32%    24%    31%    33%
Less                 28     29     29     28     27     31     27     31     26
About the same       40     42     43     39     44     36     47     37     38
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28
                     2012    2011    2011    2011
 
More                 29      27      25      31
Less                 29      26      28      23
About the same       42      46      46      46
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            47%     9%    84%    46%    46%    48%
Unfavorable          47     84     11     51     49     45
Hvn't hrd enough      3      5      2      2      3      3
REFUSED               3      3      2      1      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28  May 22  May 22  Feb 08
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2008    2008    2007
 
Favorable            47      46      47      45      50      50      39
Unfavorable          47      47      49      49      34      34      15
Hvn't hrd enough      3       3       2       2      13      13      45
REFUSED               3       4       3       3       3       3       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    66%    17%    36%    37%    40%
Unfavorable          44     14     68     48     48     40
Hvn't hrd enough     16     19     12     14     13     18
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 14  Sep 28
                     2012    2011
 
Favorable            39      33
Unfavorable          44      37
Hvn't hrd enough     16      29
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            33%    55%    15%    34%    38%    28%
Unfavorable          43     22     63     42     42     45
Hvn't hrd enough     21     21     19     22     18     24
REFUSED               3      3      3      2      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28  Dec 05  Nov 10  Feb 08
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2007    2011    2007
 
Favorable            33      34      36      32      23      36      12
Unfavorable          43      30      30      28      23      30      11
Hvn't hrd enough     21      33      32      37      53      32      76
REFUSED               3       3       2       2       1       2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            25%    46%     4%    28%    28%    21%
Unfavorable          55     30     77     57     57     53
Hvn't hrd enough     19     22     17     15     13     25
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Feb 08
                     2012    2011    2011    2007
 
Favorable            25      30      28      30
Unfavorable          55      44      42      48
Hvn't hrd enough     19      24      29      21
REFUSED               1       2       2       2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            30%    34%    22%    37%    36%    24%
Unfavorable          31     28     41     21     32     29
Hvn't hrd enough     37     37     36     39     30     44
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      2      2
 
 
13. How would you rate the job Rick Santorum did as a United States Senator; excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excellent             7%    15%     2%     6%     7%     8%
Good                 42     61     25     43     41     43
Not so good          18     11     26     14     18     17
Poor                 21      3     36     24     24     18
DK/NA                12      9     11     13     10     14
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              46%    31%    63%    43%    46%    46%
Disapprove           27     38     18     27     31     24
DK/NA                26     31     19     30     23     30
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15  Apr 28  May 28  Dec 16
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2009    2010
 
Approve              46      46      48      47      44      56      39
Disapprove           27      30      29      26      26      21      29
DK/NA                26      24      23      27      30      23      32
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              42%    62%    25%    39%    48%    36%
Disapprove           28     13     41     31     30     26
DK/NA                31     24     35     31     22     38
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Mar 14  Sep 29  Aug 02  Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011
 
Approve              42      43      44      45      43      41
Disapprove           28      32      31      28      25      21
DK/NA                31      26      25      27      31      39
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              47%    12%    86%    40%    45%    49%
Disapprove           49     86     13     55     51     48
DK/NA                 4      3      2      5      3      4
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Approve              53%    38%    31%    43%    21%    46%    41%
Disapprove           44     58     65     53     76     50     57
DK/NA                 3      4      4      4      3      5      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Approve              56%    43%    48%    48%    50%    46%    49%    49%    45%
Disapprove           41     53     46     49     50     52     48     49     51
DK/NA                 3      4      6      2      1      3      3      2      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28  Aug 02  May 04  Apr 28
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2009    2011
 
Approve              47      43      44      43      43      66      42
Disapprove           49      52      52      54      54      29      53
DK/NA                 4       5       5       3       3       5       5
 
 
20. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         47%     9%    84%    43%    47%    47%
No/Does not          49     88     12     50     50     47
DK/NA                 5      3      4      7      3      6
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Yes/Deserves         51%    38%    31%    40%    19%    45%    42%
No/Does not          46     57     63     55     75     50     56
DK/NA                 4      5      6      5      6      5      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes/Deserves         54%    44%    48%    47%    49%    44%    48%    50%    43%
No/Does not          43     51     47     48     48     52     48     48     50
DK/NA                 3      5      5      5      3      4      5      2      7
 
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (*High also 48% Feb 2011, **Low also 42% Apr 2011, Jul 2010)
                                                             YES/DESERVES..
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Dec 08  Nov 10  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15  Aug 02
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011*   2011**
 
Yes/deserves         47      47      46      44      42      48      42
No/does not          49      49      50      51      52      46      52
DK/NA                 5       4       4       5       6       6       6
 
 
21. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Casey                46%     8%    82%    44%    45%    48%
Republican           34     72      5     29     36     32
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  8     12      3     10      7      8
DK/NA                12      8     10     17     13     12
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election")
                     Mar 14  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Dec 16
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2010
 
Casey                46      50      47      47      46      45      43
Republican           34      31      35      32      34      35      35
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  8       9       8      10       9       9      11
DK/NA                12      10      10      11      11      11      11
 
 
22. Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    21%    75%    46%    46%    50%
No/Does not          30     53     10     32     35     26
DK/NA                21     26     15     22     19     24
 
TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Mar 14  Sep 28  Aug 02  Jun 15  Apr 28  Feb 17  Dec 16
                     2012    2011    2011    2011    2011    2011    2010
 
Yes/Deserves         48      48      47      47      48      46      40
No/Does not          30      31      33      31      31      28      33
DK/NA                21      20      19      21      21      26      27
 
 
23. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excellent             -      -      -      -      -      -
Good                 13      5     23     10     16     10
Not so good          46     37     53     48     46     46
Poor                 40     56     24     41     37     43
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Excellent             -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1%
Good                 20     10     13      8     14     16     13     13     13
Not so good          43     47     44     52     45     45     49     42     47
Poor                 36     42     43     37     41     39     37     44     38
DK/NA                 1      1      -      2      -      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? (*Low also 4% Feb 2009)
                                                             EXLNT+GOOD....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Mar 25  Feb 12  Feb 27  Sep 28  Jul 14  Mar 25
                     2012    2009    2009    2008    2004    2004    2009*
 
Excellent             -       -       -       1       2       3       -
Good                 13       4       4      19      34      37       4
Not so good          46      39      30      44      39      41      39
Poor                 40      56      66      35      23      18      56
DK/NA                 1       1       -       1       1       1       1
 
 
24. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better               34%    15%    54%    34%    41%    28%
Worse                28     41     14     28     25     30
The same             37     43     31     35     33     40
DK/NA                 1      1      1      3      1      2
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Better               47%    29%    30%    34%    39%    43%    34%    37%    34%
Worse                20     31     33     24     30     22     24     32     26
The same             32     39     35     40     31     34     39     29     40
DK/NA                 1      2      2      2      -      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     Mar 14  Mar 25
                     2012    2009
 
Better               34      19
Worse                28      36
The same             37      42
DK/NA                 1       3
 
 
25. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better off           32%    20%    45%    32%    37%    28%
Worse off            44     57     29     45     41     48
SAME(VOL)            22     21     25     21     22     22
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Better off           44%    27%    24%    31%    36%    46%    44%    28%    19%
Worse off            37     47     53     44     41     36     37     51     47
SAME(VOL)            18     24     21     22     21     18     16     21     33
DK/NA                 1      2      2      3      1      -      3      -      1
 
TREND: Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? (*Low also 23% Nov 2008)
                                                             BETTER OFF....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 14  Feb 12  Nov 26  Jul 13  Apr 22  Jul 13  Feb 12
                     2012    2009    2008    2004    2004    2004    2009
 
Better off           32      23      23      39      38      39      23
Worse off            44      54      54      35      38      35      54
SAME(VOL)            22      22      22      24      24      24      22
DK/NA                 2       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
26. (If Registered Republican) Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Republican primary for President; the economy, health care, immigration issues, terrorism, the federal budget deficit, taxes, foreign policy, abortion or something else?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
The economy          43%    43%    42%    42%    45%    38%    46%    39%    43%
Health care          11      8     13     10     10     11     11     16      9
Immigration issues    3      6      1      4      3      2      6      4      3
Terrorism             3      2      4      3      5      7      1      1      4
The deficit          16     19     12     17     15     14     16     15     17
Taxes                 6      7      6      5     10      4      7      9      5
Foreign policy        3      6      1      3      3      3      4      3      3
Abortion              6      2     10      8      2     10      4      6      6
Something else        6      4      7      4      6      7      4      3      7
DK/NA                 3      4      3      4      1      4      2      3      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
The economy          46%    41%    39%    42%    40%    46%    40%    51%    37%
Health care           9     11     18      6      8      9     11      3     18
Immigration issues    1      4      7      5      2      1      3      1      6
Terrorism             1      4      2      3      4      3      5      -      3
The deficit          14     16      6     11     23     20     17     18     12
Taxes                 9      5      7      7      5     10      8      6      5
Foreign policy        4      3      4      4      3      3      3      3      4
Abortion              6      6      6      8      5      6      5      9      5
Something else        6      5      4     11      7      1      7      5      3
DK/NA                 4      3      7      2      3      -      2      4      4
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q27
                     Knowldg       Moral  Defeat
                     Exprnc Leader Char   Obama
 
The economy          44%    54%    34%    41%
Health care          12     14      5     12
Immigration issues    4      1      4      4
Terrorism             4      1      3      6
The deficit          16     15     22      9
Taxes                 7      4      2     13
Foreign policy        4      2      4      -
Abortion              2      3     17      1
Something else        5      6      6      7
DK/NA                 2      -      4      6
 
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican) Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Republican primary for President: the economy, health care, immigration issues, terrorism, the federal budget deficit, taxes, foreign policy, abortion or something else?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Mar 14  Dec 08
                     2012    2011
 
The economy          43      43
Health care          11       9
Immigration issues    3       2
Terrorism             3       1
The deficit          16      25
Taxes                 6       6
Foreign policy        3       1
Abortion              6       5
Something else        6       5
DK/NA                 3       3
 
 
27. (If Registered Republican) When you decide who to vote for in the Republican primary for President, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate; knowledgeable and experienced, strong leader, strong moral character, likable, or ability to defeat Barack Obama?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....................................
                                                        WhtBrnAgnEv   TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No     Yes    No
 
Knowledge/Experience 27%    26%    28%    25%    30%    23%    30%    24%    27%
Leader               23     25     21     19     31     23     22     24     23
Moral character      27     22     32     31     21     34     24     23     29
Likable               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -      2
Defeat Obama         20     25     16     21     17     16     21     26     18
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3      -      2      2      3      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Knowledge/Experience 22%    29%    23%    29%    29%    28%    33%    18%    26%
Leader               24     23     18     25     23     26     16     33     25
Moral character      26     28     32     33     26     20     33     24     20
Likable               1      1      1      1      1      2      2      1      1
Defeat Obama         25     18     24     10     18     24     15     22     24
DK/NA                 2      2      2      2      2      -      -      2      4
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q26
                     Economy
 
Knowledge/Experience 28%
Leader               29
Moral character      22
Likable               1
Defeat Obama         19
DK/NA                 1
 
TREND: (If Registered Republican) When you decide who to vote for in the Republican primary for President, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate: knowledgeable and experienced, strong leader, strong moral character, likable, or ability to defeat Barack Obama?
                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Mar 14  Dec 08
                     2012    2011
 
Knowledge/Experience 27      37
Leader               23      25
Moral Character      27      18
Likable               1       1
Defeat Obama         20      15
DK/NA                 2       3
 
 
28. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  54%    22%    85%    50%    52%    55%
No                   43     76     13     44     45     41
DK/NA                 3      2      2      6      3      4
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Yes                  58%    46%    43%    49%    35%    54%    48%
No                   39     50     53     48     61     44     51
DK/NA                 3      4      4      3      4      3      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  61%    51%    56%    50%    56%    55%    55%    56%    50%
No                   37     46     40     48     41     43     42     41     45
DK/NA                 3      4      4      3      3      2      3      3      5
 
TREND: Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Mar 14  May 01
                     2012    2008
 
Yes                  54      66
No                   43      26
DK/NA                 3       8
 
 
29. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  31%    53%    14%    32%    33%    30%
No                   55     32     75     57     57     54
DK/NA                13     15     11     11     10     16
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Yes                  37%    33%    37%    39%    45%    34%    35%
No                   55     54     48     50     39     55     55
DK/NA                 8     14     15     11     16     11     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  36%    30%    25%    31%    34%    41%    31%    30%    35%
No                   57     55     60     54     58     49     56     59     49
DK/NA                 7     16     15     15      8     10     13     11     16
 
 
30. Would you say that - Rick Santorum cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  48%    78%    27%    40%    48%    48%
No                   44     15     65     52     46     42
DK/NA                 8      7      8      7      7     10
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Yes                  46%    54%    57%    56%    69%    50%    53%
No                   49     39     35     38     23     44     39
DK/NA                 5      7      8      7      8      6      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  44%    49%    45%    48%    49%    48%    45%    50%    50%
No                   51     41     45     44     46     45     46     44     39
DK/NA                 5     10     10      8      5      7      9      6     11
 
 
31. Would you say that - Newt Gingrich cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  29%    56%     8%    29%    30%    29%
No                   60     32     83     62     61     59
DK/NA                11     12      9      9      9     13
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Yes                  30%    33%    37%    33%    46%    30%    34%
No                   65     56     50     58     40     61     59
DK/NA                 6     11     13      8     14      9      7
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  28%    30%    25%    30%    31%    31%    28%    29%    31%
No                   66     57     61     62     61     64     61     62     56
DK/NA                 5     13     15      8      8      6     11      9     13
 
 
32. Would you say that - Ron Paul cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  50%    57%    39%    59%    54%    46%
No                   30     23     42     24     31     29
DK/NA                20     20     19     17     15     24
 
                     WHITE................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                 BornAgnEv     Military
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Yes    No     HsHlds
 
Yes                  55%    53%    52%    52%    54%    53%    57%
No                   29     27     28     28     23     29     30
DK/NA                16     20     21     20     22     19     14
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...  AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50  50-100 >100K  18-49  50-64  65+
 
Yes                  54%    48%    40%    52%    55%    62%    55%    50%    40%
No                   31     30     35     28     33     23     28     33     32
DK/NA                15     22     25     21     12     15     17     16     27
 

Demographic Summary