October 15, 2003 - Bush Slips In Pennsylvania And Dems Close In, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Specter Holds Double-Digit Lead For Reelection
President George W. Bush's approval rating has slipped to 51 - 44 percent among Pennsylvania voters, but he clings to a narrowing lead over leading Democratic challengers, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

President Bush had a 60 - 35 percent approval in an August 7 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

Former Gen. Wesley Clark trails Bush 48 - 43 percent. The President beats New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 51 - 43 percent, but has lost ground against other Democrats since August 7:
  • Leading Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman 50 - 44 percent, down from 54 - 38;
  • Beating Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 50 - 43 percent, down from 55 - 37;
  • Topping former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 51 - 41 percent, down from 57 - 34;
  • Besting Missouri U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt 50 - 42 percent, down from 56 - 36.
"Even at this early stage, Pennsylvania is shaping up as a key battleground state in the 2004 presidential election. President Bush's numbers have slipped, as they have everywhere recently. Gen. Clark has made a god first showing, but Bush still leads all challengers in Pennsylvania. The president knows Pennsylvania is important. It seems like he's come to Pennsylvania more times this year than he has gone home to Texas," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"There's no real favorite in the Democratic field, except maybe Sen. Clinton and she's not running. Gen. Clark and Senators Kerry and Lieberman may be pulling away from the rest of the field at this point, but the fickle Democratic voters could anoint someone else in the next poll down the road," Richards added.

The presidential pack is in a horserace among Democratic voters:
  • Kerry has 18 percent;
  • Clark has 17 percent;
  • Lieberman has 15 percent;
  • Gephardt has 10 percent.
  • No other candidate tops 7 percent.
If Sen. Clinton changes her mind and throws her hat into the ring, she gets 43 percent of Democratic voters, with 10 percent each for Clark and Kerry.

Pennsylvania voters give Sen. Arlen Specter a 54 - 31 percent approval rating and a 43 - 22 percent favorability rating. The Republican incumbent leads Democratic Congressman Joseph Hoeffel 50 - 33 percent, compared to his 53 - 29 percent lead August 7.

Asked their opinion of Hoeffel, 74 percent of voters say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Looking at Congressman Pat Toomey, 81 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

"Sen. Specter's numbers have slipped a little bit, but he still seems in strong shape for re-election. The key finding here is that a huge majority of Pennsylvania voters know little or nothing about the other men who would be senator," Richards added.

From October 9 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,116 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey includes 393 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 15, 2003 54% 31% 16% Aug 7, 2003 57 27 16 May 22, 2003 60 25 15 Apr 10, 2003 59 22 19 Feb 21, 2003 60 21 19 Sept. 18, 2002 58 24 18 Jul 24, 2002 56 24 20 Jun 5, 2002 56 23 21



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 15, 2003 54% 28% 18% Aug 7, 2003 56 28 17 May 22, 2003 55 33 12 Apr 10, 2003 55 20 24 Feb 21, 2003 56 21 24 Sept. 18, 2002 54 21 25 Jul 24, 2002 54 22 24 Jun 5, 2002 52 22 26



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                       App     Dis     DK/NA


Oct 15, 2003 51% 44% 6% Aug 7, 2003 60 35 5 May 22, 2003 64 31 5 Apr 8, 2003 67 28 5 Feb 21, 2003 53 41 6 Sept. 18, 2002 69 26 6 Jul 24, 2002 68 25 7 Jun 5, 2002 73 21 6



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 54% 57% 53% 51% 50% 57% 52% Disapprove 31 30 30 34 33 28 36 DK/NA 16 13 17 15 17 15 12

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 49% 54% 53% 57% 60% 48% 54% Disapprove 41 32 33 30 22 35 26 DK/NA 11 14 15 13 18 16 20



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 54% 75% 40% 49% 54% 55% 51% Disapprove 28 12 39 35 29 27 33 DK/NA 18 13 21 16 18 19 16

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 49% 47% 55% 49% 63% 58% 59% Disapprove 40 28 32 31 25 26 18 DK/NA 10 25 13 20 12 16 23



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Approve 51% 83% 25% 45% 53% 48% 46% Disapprove 44 13 69 50 41 46 47 DK/NA 6 4 6 5 6 5 7

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 48% 31% 53% 47% 58% 52% 61% Disapprove 49 66 41 48 38 35 34 DK/NA 3 4 6 5 5 13 5



6. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                          
                      Dem 


Lieberman 15% Kerry 18 Gephardt 10 Edwards 7 Dean 5 Sharpton 4 Moseley-Braun 3 Kucinich 2 Clark 17 DK/NA 19



7. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                         
                      Dem 


Clinton 43% Lieberman 7 Kerry 10 Gephardt 7 Edwards 3 Dean 5 Sharpton 2 Moseley-Braun 1 Kucinich 1 Clark 10 DK/NA 11



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Clark 43% 10% 74% 41% 42% 44% 48% Bush 48 84 17 45 51 45 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 4 6 7 4 8 9

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Clark 42% 65% 43% 49% 37% 43% 31% Bush 48 25 49 40 57 50 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 1 2 2 - 0 DK/NA 7 2 6 9 3 5 6



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Clinton 43% 8% 77% 39% 37% 49% 50% Bush 51 91 17 49 57 46 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 2 1 1 DK/NA 2 1 3 4 3 2 2

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Clinton 45% 73% 41% 46% 37% 38% 31% Bush 50 23 53 47 59 56 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 - 4 2



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Lieberman 44% 9% 78% 41% 39% 48% 51% Bush 50 88 17 48 55 45 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 2 4 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Lieberman 43% 69% 40% 51% 39% 42% 33% Bush 50 25 53 43 55 52 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 2 3 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 4 1 5 1 4 5 2



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Kerry 43% 10% 74% 40% 39% 46% 48% Bush 50 86 19 46 53 47 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 4 3 1 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 4 3 4 7 3 5 8

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Kerry 44% 66% 41% 48% 35% 42% 30% Bush 47 26 51 43 60 52 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 3 1 - 1 DK/NA 6 2 7 3 3 4 4



13. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Gephardt 42% 9% 73% 42% 38% 46% 49% Bush 50 88 18 47 54 47 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 4 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 4 2 1 1 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 3 5 7

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Gephardt 39% 65% 42% 46% 37% 41% 31% Bush 49 26 52 42 61 52 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 - 1 1 DK/NA 8 4 3 6 2 3 3



14. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Dean 41% 7% 73% 38% 37% 44% 45% Bush 51 89 19 49 55 47 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 5 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 DK/NA 5 3 5 6 4 6 8

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Dean 38% 62% 36% 46% 35% 42% 30% Bush 49 31 54 44 60 53 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 3 1 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 2 6 6 4 4 4



15. Arlen Specter will be up for re-election in 2004. Would you like to see Arlen Specter re-elected senator, or would you rather see someone else elected senator?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Specter 46% 53% 43% 43% 45% 47% 44% Someone else 41 36 43 47 43 40 46 DK/NA 12 11 15 11 12 13 9

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Specter 38% 52% 47% 46% 55% 34% 48% Someone else 45 34 45 48 31 46 38 DK/NA 17 15 8 6 14 20 14



16. Suppose the general election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Hoeffel the Democrat and Arlen Specter the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Hoeffel 33% 12% 53% 32% 33% 33% 39% Specter 50 70 33 49 51 49 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 13 10 12 15 11 14 12

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel 34% 52% 31% 41% 17% 38% 21% Specter 45 40 52 49 62 43 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 - 3 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 3 1 3 DK/NA 17 5 13 7 16 16 16



17. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 9% 13% 5% 11% 11% 7% 6% Unfavorable 3 2 4 4 4 2 6 Mixed 6 6 6 7 7 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 81 79 84 78 76 86 81 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 - -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 9% 5% 19% 9% 3% 7% 9% Unfavorable 2 3 5 5 - 1 2 Mixed 4 4 10 8 3 2 7 Hvn't hrd enough 85 84 66 78 93 86 81 REFUSED - 3 - - 1 4 1



18. Is your opinion of Pennsylvania Congressman Joseph Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 11% 6% 15% 13% 15% 8% 16% Unfavorable 4 8 2 3 6 3 2 Mixed 10 9 7 15 10 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 74 76 75 69 68 79 76 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 2% 27% 5% 28% 2% 4% 3% Unfavorable 3 2 3 12 1 1 4 Mixed 3 16 11 15 4 4 9 Hvn't hrd enough 92 54 81 44 92 88 83 REFUSED - - - - 1 3 -



19. Is your opinion of United States Senator Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 43% 49% 41% 40% 41% 45% 42% Unfavorable 22 18 22 26 23 20 28 Mixed 24 25 25 23 25 24 26 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 11 10 10 10 5 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 38% 44% 44% 45% 49% 36% 44% Unfavorable 30 18 23 24 16 21 20 Mixed 20 24 23 26 25 29 23 Hvn't hrd enough 13 14 10 5 9 8 11 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 5 1



20. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                      Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     hsHlds


Favorable 44% 65% 32% 38% 43% 45% 44% Unfavorable 24 9 33 32 28 20 26 Mixed 18 15 18 20 15 20 23 Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 16 11 13 15 8 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 47% 37% 39% 39% 57% 44% 49% Unfavorable 36 28 23 28 17 22 16 Mixed 10 14 19 22 14 25 17 Hvn't hrd enough 6 20 19 11 12 6 17 REFUSED - - - - - 3 -