September 18, 2002 - Fisher Narrows Gap With Rendell In Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat's Support Among Men, Union Members Slips
Republican State Attorney General Mike Fisher has narrowed the gap, but Democrat Ed Rendell leads in the race for Governor of Pennsylvania 51 - 44 percent among likely voters, including voters who are leaning towards a candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is the first poll of likely voters in this race.

In a July 24 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Rendell led Fisher 49 - 36 percent in a broader pool of registered voters. That lead has been cut to 47 - 39 percent today.

Since July, male registered voters have shifted from 47 - 40 percent for Rendell to a 44 - 44 percent split. Union households have gone from 54 - 35 percent for Rendell in July to 48 - 35 percent for the Democrat today.

From September 10 -16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,279 Pennsylvania registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent. The survey includes 879 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

"Mayor Rendell holds a solid 7-point lead in this race and is still seen by voters as the stronger leader and the better candidate on the major issues - property tax reform, education and the economy," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But Mike Fisher is beginning to show the kind of support you would expect of a sitting attorney general who already has won a statewide race. He's gained some ground among men and union households and for the first time Republicans are saying they're paying as much attention to the election as Democrats," Richards added.

"Gov. Schweiker's leadership in the Somerset mine rescue has given the Fisher campaign a shot in the arm by reminding Pennsylvania voters of the kind of strong Republican leaders the state has had in the past. The strong approval ratings enjoyed by Schweiker and President Bush may well be having a coattail effect for Fisher."

Rendell's favorability is 39 - 19 percent among registered voters, with 22 percent mixed and 19 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion, unchanged from the last two Quinnipiac University polls.

Fisher gets an 23 - 11 percent favorability rating, with 18 percent mixed and 47 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. In the July 24 poll, 58 percent had no opinion on Fisher.

Pennsylvania voters approve 66 - 10 percent of the job Gov. Schweiker is doing, up from 50 - 16 percent in July and close to President Bush's 69 - 26 percent approval.

Looking at how the candidates would handle key issues, registered voters say:
  • 39 - 30 percent that Rendell would do a better job on property tax reform;
  • 41 - 33 percent that the Democrat would do a better job on education;
  • 43 - 34 percent that Rendell would do a better job on the state's economy.
Voters say Rendell has stronger leadership qualities, 54 - 24 percent, and cares more about the problems of people like them, 41 - 31 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Schweiker is handling his job as Governor?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 66% 78% 59% 60% 69% 64% 64% Disapprove 10 5 15 13 11 10 12 DK/NA 23 17 25 28 20 26 24

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 70% 44% 67% 68% 61% 76% 72% Disapprove 10 25 8 10 8 7 7 DK/NA 19 31 25 22 31 16 21



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 58% 60% 60% 55% 60% 55% 59% Disapprove 24 23 24 23 23 24 27 DK/NA 18 17 17 22 16 20 15

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 66% 55% 60% 58% 52% 56% 57% Disapprove 18 25 21 27 19 28 25 DK/NA 16 21 19 16 28 16 18



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 54% 67% 46% 47% 58% 50% 51% Disapprove 21 10 28 27 20 21 28 DK/NA 25 23 26 26 21 29 20

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 55% 46% 57% 53% 55% 53% 57% Disapprove 32 21 18 19 16 29 17 DK/NA 13 34 25 28 29 19 26



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Approve 69% 90% 50% 62% 71% 66% 64% Disapprove 26 7 43 30 24 28 30 DK/NA 6 3 7 8 5 6 6

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve 70% 49% 76% 65% 70% 71% 75% Disapprove 21 46 20 30 24 21 20 DK/NA 9 5 4 5 6 7 5



5. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Governor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


A lot 22% 21% 25% 18% 22% 21% 23% Some 38 39 36 40 38 38 36 Only a little 27 28 27 27 27 28 25 None at all 12 12 11 14 12 13 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 - -

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

A lot 24% 31% 17% 21% 17% 19% 21% Some 43 27 39 41 31 35 42 Only a little 23 26 30 26 35 34 24 None at all 10 15 13 10 17 10 13 DK/NA - 1 2 1 - 1 1



6. Is your opinion of former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 39% 24% 57% 39% 38% 41% 38% Unfavorable 19 28 11 17 22 16 18 Mixed 22 24 17 24 20 23 20 Hvn't hrd enough 19 22 15 19 19 19 23 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 28% 70% 36% 61% 16% 26% 28% Unfavorable 21 10 20 17 22 24 21 Mixed 26 16 18 17 25 23 25 Hvn't hrd enough 25 3 25 3 35 27 25 REFUSED - 1 1 1 2 - -



7. Is your opinion of state Attorney General Mike Fisher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 23% 34% 14% 19% 25% 21% 18% Unfavorable 11 4 17 9 11 10 14 Mixed 18 15 22 21 18 18 21 Hvn't hrd enough 47 45 45 49 44 50 46 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 1 1

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable 27% 11% 27% 21% 24% 23% 25% Unfavorable 13 14 9 8 8 13 10 Mixed 25 21 10 18 18 15 20 Hvn't hrd enough 35 52 52 50 48 47 44 REFUSED - 2 1 4 2 2 2

8. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Mike Fisher the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 47% 22% 73% 48% 44% 50% 48% Fisher 39 63 17 35 44 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 11 12 8 12 10 13 14

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 40% 77% 41% 60% 33% 43% 34% Fisher 46 14 47 32 47 37 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 5 1 2 DK/NA 11 6 11 7 13 16 15

8a. (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Rendell or Fisher?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS (Includes Leaners)............
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 50% 25% 76% 51% 46% 53% 53% Fisher 42 66 19 40 47 37 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 8 5 6 5 9 7

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 43% 82% 44% 62% 35 47% 37% Fisher 49 14 48 34 52 42 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 8 3 8 3 9 8 10



8. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Mike Fisher the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS ..................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 48% 19% 77% 51% 46% 50% 51% Fisher 41 68 16 33 47 35 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 4 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 2 2 DK/NA 9 11 6 12 6 12 10

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 44% 78% 45% 57% 27% 43% 39% Fisher 43 8 46 36 58 46 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - - 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - - 5 - 2 DK/NA 11 9 9 7 7 10 11

8a. (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Rendell or Fisher?
                     LIKELY VOTERS (Includes Leaners)................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 51% 22% 79% 57% 48% 53% 55% Fisher 44 71 18 37 49 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 3 4 2 7 4

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 48% 86% 49% 59% 28% 44% 41% Fisher 47 8 48 38 64 50 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 4 3 6 6 6

9. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the election?

                          REGISTERED............  LIKELY................
                          Rendell     Fisher      Rendell     Fisher
                          supporters  supporters  supporters  supporters


Very sure 64% 59% 69% 68% Might change 34 38 30 31 DK/NA 2 2 2 1

10. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice), or more a vote against (other candidate)?

                          REGISTERED............  LIKELY................
                          Rendell     Fisher      Rendell     Fisher
                          supporters  supporters  supporters  supporters


For your candidate 81% 51% 81% 54% Against other candidate 13 36 13 35 DK/NA 6 13 6 11



11. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, do you think can do the best job handling property tax reform?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 39% 18% 59% 42% 37% 40% 42% Fisher 30 46 20 20 31 28 25 NO DIFF 6 6 4 10 7 5 7 DK/NA 25 30 17 29 24 26 26

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 34% 68% 34% 48% 21% 35% 30% Fisher 36 16 32 27 28 28 35 NO DIFF 7 3 6 5 14 8 5 DK/NA 24 13 27 20 37 29 30

12. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, do you think can do the best job handling education?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 41% 24% 59% 40% 38% 44% 45% Fisher 33 47 22 28 37 29 30 NO DIFF 3 4 2 5 4 3 4 DK/NA 23 25 18 27 21 25 21

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 35% 63% 40% 50% 29% 39% 31% Fisher 43 21 32 29 34 35 36 NO DIFF 4 2 2 3 7 1 5 DK/NA 19 15 25 18 31 25 28

13. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, do you think can do the best job handling the economy?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 43% 21% 64% 46% 43% 42% 47% Fisher 34 51 21 25 36 31 30 NO DIFF 4 4 2 6 4 4 4 DK/NA 20 23 13 24 17 23 19

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 31% 73% 34% 57% 31% 40% 31% Fisher 45 18 39 27 32 34 40 NO DIFF - 1 3 3 7 5 5 DK/NA 24 8 24 13 30 21 24



14. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, do you think has stronger leadership qualities?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 54% 39% 69% 55% 53% 54% 58% Fisher 24 36 15 21 27 22 22 NO DIFF 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 DK/NA 18 22 11 19 16 19 16

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 46% 77% 52% 72% 32% 46% 44% Fisher 32 7 26 16 32 28 31 NO DIFF 4 2 5 2 11 4 4 DK/NA 19 13 17 10 25 23 21

15. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, do you think cares more about the needs and problems of people like you?

                     REGISTERED VOTERS...............................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 41% 21% 63% 44% 39% 43% 45% Fisher 31 51 17 22 34 29 26 NO DIFF 8 7 7 12 9 7 10 DK/NA 19 21 13 23 18 20 19

Algny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Rendell 30% 68% 34% 53% 26% 41% 34% Fisher 43 12 36 26 34 31 37 NO DIFF 9 9 7 6 16 7 7 DK/NA 18 11 23 16 24 21 22