October 17, 2002 - Rendell Is Pulling Away In Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat gets some GOP support
Democrat Ed Rendell has opened a commanding 56 - 36 percent lead over Republican State Attorney General Mike Fisher in their race for Pennsylvania governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The survey of likely voters includes voters who are leaning towards a candidate.

In a September 18 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Rendell led Fisher 51 - 44 percent.

Rendell leads 81 - 14 percent among Democratic likely voters, 60 - 31 percent among independent voters and gets a strong 28 percent of Republican voters to Fisher's 62 percent. The Democrat leads among men, women and union households as well.

From October 9 -15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 740 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.

"There is no good news anywhere in this poll for Mike Fisher. The numbers are moving heavily in the wrong direction for the Attorney General and Ed Rendell is pulling away. The former mayor has picked up significantly among men and union households since our last poll a month ago," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The major reason Mr. Fisher has not been able to make this a close race is because he is yielding almost three out of 10 Republican voters to Rendell," Richards added.

"These Rendell Republicans not surprisingly are concentrated in significant numbers in the Philadelphia suburbs where Rendell is well-known and Fisher is not. Rendell Republicans tend to be married, middle income voters between the ages of 45 and 64. They voted overwhelmingly for Bush for President, but they now strongly believe that Rendell is the better candidate to solve the property tax mess in Pennsylvania."

Rendell's favorability is 46 - 20 percent, with 24 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Fisher gets a slightly negative 24 - 28 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent mixed and 20 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Pennsylvania voters say 48 - 25 percent that Rendell is closer to their point of view on property tax reform.

Rendell also is closer to their view on gun control, voters say 34 - 28 percent with 33 percent undecided. The Democrat edges out the Republican on abortion, 35 - 27 percent, with 34 percent undecided.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks

2. Is your opinion of Ed Rendell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 46% 22% 68% 46% 48% 44% 49% Unfavorable 20 33 7 21 20 20 17 Mixed 24 29 19 26 23 25 27 Hvn't hrd enough 7 13 4 5 6 8 6 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 3 3 1

3. Is your opinion of Mike Fisher favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Favorable 24% 43% 10% 17% 24% 24% 21% Unfavorable 28 15 40 28 30 25 34 Mixed 25 18 27 32 26 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 20 22 20 20 16 24 20 REFUSED 2 3 2 3 3 2 1

4. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ed Rendell the Democrat and Mike Fisher the Republican for whom would you vote? 4a. (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Rendell or Fisher?

                     LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners).................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 56% 28% 81% 60% 57% 56% 64% Fisher 36 62 14 31 34 37 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 5 7 7 6 6

5. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice q4) or might you change your mind before the election?

                          LIKELY................
                          Rendell     Fisher
                          supporters  supporters


Very sure 79% 75% Might change 19 24 DK/NA 2 1

6. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice q4), or more a vote against (other candidate q4)?

                          LIKELY................
                          Rendell     Fisher
                          supporters  supporters


For candidate choice 84% 61% Against other candidate 13 32 DK/NA 3 7

7. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, is closer to your view on - property tax reform?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 48% 23% 69% 50% 50% 46% 57% Fisher 25 39 12 28 26 25 20 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 7 4 8 6 6 6 DK/NA 21 30 15 15 18 23 17

8. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, is closer to your view on - gun control?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 34% 13% 52% 39% 33% 35% 33% Fisher 28 46 14 25 34 23 26 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 4 6 4 5 4 7 DK/NA 33 37 29 31 28 37 34

9. Which candidate for Governor, Ed Rendell or Mike Fisher, is closer to your view on - abortion?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....................................
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    hsHlds


Rendell 35% 15% 53% 37% 33% 37% 42% Fisher 27 42 11 32 29 24 22 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 DK/NA 34 39 31 26 32 35 30