June 26, 2008 - Obama Leads McCain In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 44 MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 42 MINNESOTA: Obama 54 - McCain 37 WISCONSIN: Obama 52 - McCain 39

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An emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads of five to 17 percentage points over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.

Sen. McCain's lead among white voters in Colorado and Michigan cuts the gap to single digits, but doesn't offset Sen. Obama's strength among other groups. The Democrat also leads by eight to 21 percentage points among independent voters in each state. Overall results show:
  • Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters;
  • Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents;
  • Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents;
  • Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.
Democrats would like Obama to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate, but voters overall reject the idea. Independent voters oppose Sen. Clinton by 16 to 29 percentage points.

"November can't get here soon enough for Sen. Barack Obama. He has a lead everywhere, and if nothing changes between now and November he will make history," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But Sen. Obama should not be picking out the drapes for the Oval Office just yet. His lead nationally, and double digits in some key states, is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign," Brown added.

"At this point, Sen. Obama has assembled what Democrats see as their victory coalition for the future: young people, racial minorities and women, while remaining competitive - and in some places ahead - among men and whites.

"There is a clear consensus among voters in all of these states that they don't want Sen. Hillary Clinton as vice president and that they see her as a liability for Obama, not an asset."

President Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 31 - 63 percent in Colorado;
  • 26 - 67 percent in Michigan;
  • 24 - 70 percent in Minnesota;
  • 27 - 67 percent in Wisconsin.
Colorado

Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 50 - 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama as Hispanic voters go Democratic 62 - 36 percent. Obama leads 53 - 45 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54. He gets 47 percent of voters over 55 to McCain's 45 percent.

Obama gets a 53 - 33 percent favorability rating, with 53 - 32 percent for McCain.

While 19 percent of Colorado voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age, 78 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 91 percent say.

The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent say, while 19 percent list the war in Iraq, 10 percent cite health care and 9 percent cite illegal immigration.

"Democrats say Colorado is one of the states most likely to turn from red to blue in 2008, and these numbers certainly support that view," said Brown.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 - 38 percent, including 54 - 27 percent among independent voters.

Colorado voters support 66 - 15 percent a constitutional amendment outlawing discrimination or preferential treatment in public employment, contracting or education.

"Similar ballot proposals passed easily in Washington, California and Michigan. Colorado looks like it will join that list unless there is a dramatic shift in voter sentiment," Brown said.

Michigan

Michigan women voters back Obama 52 - 38 percent, while men split with 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 48 - 42 percent, as black voters support Obama 89 - 6 percent. The Democrat leads 57 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and gets 48 percent of voters 35 to 54, to McCain's 45 percent. Obama has a 45 - 42 percent edge among voters over 55.

Voters give Obama a 54 - 27 percent favorability, with 49 - 29 percent for McCain.

Because of his age, 18 percent of Michigan voters are less likely to vote for McCain, and 79 percent say it doesn't matter. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 90 percent say.

For 56 percent of Michigan voters, the economy is the most important issue in November, while 16 percent list the war in Iraq and 10 percent cite health care.

"Michigan is a blue-collar state with a large white, working-class vote, the kind of voters with whom Sen. Obama had problems during the primaries. But at this point Sen. McCain isn't doing nearly as well among that group as he needs to in order to carry Michigan," Brown said. Minnesota

Obama tops McCain 58 - 32 percent with women and 49 - 42 percent among men. White voters support Obama 51 - 39 percent. The Democrat leads 63 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 49 - 38 percent with voters over 55.

Obama gets a 59 - 22 percent favorability, to 46 - 32 percent for McCain.

McCain's age will not affect their vote, 75 percent say, while 22 percent say they are less likely to vote for him because of his age. Obama's race will not affect their vote, 90 percent say.

By a 23 - 18 percent margin, Minnesota voters are less likely to vote Republican if Gov. Tim Pawlenty is the vice presidential candidate, while 56 percent say it won't affect their vote.

The economy is the most important issue for 51 percent of Minnesota voters, while 21 percent list the war in Iraq and 11 percent list health care.

In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 51 - 41 percent, including 55 - 35 percent among independent voters.

"Sen. Obama sweeps nearly every demographic group in Minnesota, including whites and blue collar workers, to lead by 17 points, the biggest lead in the four states surveyed. At the same time, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, with overwhelming support among men and a tie among women, has a 10-point overall lead over comedian Al Franken, the Democratic challenger," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Most voters say it would not make any difference in their vote if Gov. Tim Pawlenty is McCain's running mate," Richards added. Wisconsin

Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 53 - 37 percent while men back the Democrat 51 - 40 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 42 percent. He leads 61 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 47 - 41 percent among voters over 55.

Obama's favorability is 54 - 27 percent, with 48 - 30 percent for McCain.

McCain's age won't affect their vote, 77 percent say, while 20 percent are less likely to vote for him because of his age. Obama's race doesn't matter, 91 percent say.

The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent of Wisconsin voters say, while 20 percent cite the war in Iraq and 14 percent list health care.

By a 7 - 4 percent margin, Wisconsin voters are less likely to vote Republican if Gov. Pawlenty is the vice presidential candidate, while 81 percent say it won't affect their vote.

"Winning a majority of the white vote and leading among blue collar workers, Obama leads by 13 points with eight in 10 voters saying their mind is made up in this campaign," Richards said.

"While reports suggest having Gov. Pawlenty from neighboring Minnesota as a running mate would give Sen. McCain an edge in Wisconsin, Badger State voters say having him on the ticket would make little difference in how they vote."

From June 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,351 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
  • 1,411 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,572 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent;
  • 1,537 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.


1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
COLORADO             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Obama                49%     9%    93%    51%    45%    53%    46%    62%    54%
McCain               44     88      5     39     50     39     47     36     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      3      3      1      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      2      8      3      7      5      2      4
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q5......   Denvr/ Arap/         RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Bouldr Jeff   West   State
 
Obama                68%    53%     8%    59%    48%    46%    42%
McCain               27     39     91     35     43     47     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      6      1      4      7      5      4
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                53%    49%    47%    42%    52%    41%    50%    29%    38%
McCain               45     42     45     50     42     52     42     65     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      3      1      3      1      3      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      5      7      6      5      4      7      4      8
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis
 
Obama                13%    90%    10%    84%     9%    72%
McCain               81      5     86     12     86     21
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      4      3      3      3      5
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MICHIGAN             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                48%     7%    86%    46%    45%    52%    42%    89%    57%
McCain               42     89      9     38     46     38     48      6     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      2      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      5     14      7      9      9      5      9
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4......   Wayne  Oak/          RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   County Macomb SthW   State
 
Obama                70%    50%     9%    59%    43%    39%    51%
McCain               21     41     84     33     44     49     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      -      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      8      6      7     12     11      6
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                57%    48%    45%    42%    43%    40%    44%    31%    38%
McCain               36     45     42     47     50     51     45     60     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      6     12     10      6      7     10      8      8
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis
 
Obama                13%    83%    12%    77%     9%    67%
McCain               79     12     83     18     85     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      5      4      6      8
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MINNESOTA            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Obama                54%    12%    88%    54%    49%    58%    51%    53%
McCain               37     84      7     33     42     32     39     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      4      4     10      9      8      9      9
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q5......   Twin   Twin
                     War    Econ   Terr   Cities Suburb West   East
 
Obama                65%    56%    12%    62%    49%    46%    54%
McCain               25     35     84     31     42     42     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      8      4      6      8     12      9
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                63%    52%    49%    47%    62%    45%    57%    38%    50%
McCain               33     39     38     42     31     45     34     55     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      8     11     10      5      9      9      6      9
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis
 
Obama                19%    86%    16%    83%    10%    71%
McCain               73      8     80     11     84     19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      4      6      6      8
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WISCONSIN            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Obama                52%     8%    88%    50%    51%    53%    49%    59%
McCain               39     88      7     37     40     37     42     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      3      5     11      7      9      8      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q4......          Milwak        RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Milwak Vicnty South  State
 
Obama                70%    55%     7%    60%    42%    56%    51%
McCain               23     37     86     28     51     35     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      7      7     12      5      9      8
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                61%    52%    47%    47%    56%    50%    49%    32%    49%
McCain               35     39     41     43     38     42     41     59     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      8     11      9      5      7      9      8      7
 
                     PresVt2004..  CongVt2006..  BushJobAppQ12
                     Bush   Kerry  Rep    Dem    App    Dis
 
Obama                16%    86%    10%    80%     9%    73%
McCain               77      7     85     13     83     18
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      4      7      8      8
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                    CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
CO                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              77%    77%    78%
Might change         21     21     21
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
MI                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              74%    74%    73%
Might change         23     23     24
DK/NA                 3      3      3
 
MN                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              74%    77%    69%
Might change         25     22     29
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
WI                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              78%    80%    77%
Might change         20     19     23
DK/NA                 1      2      1
 
 
2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat and Bob Schaffer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Udall or Schaffer? This table includes "Leaners". (CO only)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
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CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Udall                48%     8%    89%    54%    43%    53%    47%    57%    62%
Schaffer             38     82      7     27     46     32     40     34     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                12      9      4     17      9     14     12      8     10
 
 
2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the DFL candidate and Norm Coleman the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken or Coleman? This table includes "Leaners". (MN only)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
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MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Franken              41%     4%    76%    35%    37%    45%    40%    47%
Coleman              51     92     17     55     57     45     52     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      -      1      1      1
DK/NA                 6      3      5      8      4      8      6      5
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Favorable            53%    25%    85%    55%    50%    56%    51%    62%    55%
Unfavorable          33     62      6     28     37     28     34     25     25
Hvn't hrd enough     12     11      8     15     10     13     12     13     17
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      2      3      3      -      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            54%    26%    79%    54%    51%    56%    49%    88%    59%
Unfavorable          27     58      8     22     32     23     31      1     20
Hvn't hrd enough     16     13     12     22     14     18     17     10     20
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      2      2      2      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            59%    29%    78%    64%    57%    60%    57%    57%
Unfavorable          22     51      6     20     24     20     24     21
Hvn't hrd enough     16     18     13     14     16     16     17     18
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      3      4      3      4
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            54%    22%    79%    55%    53%    55%    52%    61%
Unfavorable          27     63      7     22     29     25     29     23
Hvn't hrd enough     16     11     12     19     15     16     15     15
REFUSED               4      3      2      4      3      4      4      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
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CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Favorable            53%    83%    24%    51%    55%    50%    55%    49%    50%
Unfavorable          32     10     58     31     33     32     32     27     34
Hvn't hrd enough     13      7     15     15     10     15     10     22     14
REFUSED               3      1      3      3      2      3      3      1      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            49%    83%    23%    52%    57%    43%    56%    12%    43%
Unfavorable          29      7     51     24     29     30     26     43     36
Hvn't hrd enough     18      7     23     21     12     24     15     39     19
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      3      3      3      5      3
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            46%    73%    29%    46%    52%    41%    48%    46%
Unfavorable          32      9     53     29     30     33     31     35
Hvn't hrd enough     19     16     15     20     14     22     17     16
REFUSED               4      3      3      5      4      3      3      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            48%    83%    27%    49%    51%    46%    51%    41%
Unfavorable          30      6     51     27     31     30     30     37
Hvn't hrd enough     18      9     18     20     15     20     16     20
REFUSED               4      1      4      4      3      4      3      2
 
 
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
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CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             8%    20%     2%     4%    10%     6%     8%    10%     9%
The war in Iraq      19     11     28     21     19     20     20     16     19
The economy          47     40     50     51     47     46     47     46     48
Illegal immigration   9     16      3      7     10      8      9     11     11
Health care          10      7     14     10      6     14     10     11      7
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      3      3      4      3      4      4      2      3
DK/NA                 3      4      1      3      3      2      3      3      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             8%    19%     3%     6%    10%     6%     9%     4%     7%
The war in Iraq      16      9     24     15     15     17     15     25     20
The economy          56     51     57     56     54     57     55     53     53
Illegal immigration   3      5      1      4      4      3      4      -      3
Health care          10      6     13     12     10     11     10     13     11
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      7      1      4      5      3      4      2      4
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      3      3      3      4      2
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             5%    12%     1%     4%     5%     5%     5%     5%
The war in Iraq      21     17     26     19     21     22     20     21
The economy          51     53     50     52     54     48     53     51
Illegal immigration   5      5      3      8      6      4      5      6
Health care          11      3     17     11      8     14     10     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      4      2      4      4      4      4      3
DK/NA                 3      5      2      2      3      4      3      4
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             8%    19%     1%     9%     9%     7%     8%     5%
The war in Iraq      20     13     25     19     19     21     20     22
The economy          47     47     49     48     50     45     48     50
Illegal immigration   4      9      2      3      5      4      5      4
Health care          14      7     19     12     10     16     13     14
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      4      2      5      4      3      4      3
DK/NA                 3      2      2      4      3      3      2      2
 
 
5. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
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CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     3%     2%     1%     2%     2%     1%     4%     3%
Less likely          19      6     32     21     17     22     19     11     19
Doesn't make diff    78     91     65     77     81     75     78     84     77
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           1%     2%     -      2%     1%     2%     1%     3%     1%
Less likely          18      5     30     18     16     19     16     36     19
Doesn't make diff    79     92     67     79     82     77     82     58     79
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      2      1      3      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     5%     1%     2%     2%     2%     2%     1%
Less likely          22      6     33     26     22     23     22     24
Doesn't make diff    75     88     66     71     75     74     75     75
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     3%     1%     2%     2%     1%     1%     2%
Less likely          20     10     30     17     19     21     20     22
Doesn't make diff    77     87     68     80     77     76     78     76
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      2      1      1      -
 
 
6. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely           4%     3%     7%     4%     4%     5%     3%     9%     7%
Less likely           3      5      2      3      3      3      4      5      3
Doesn't make diff    91     91     90     93     92     91     93     86     87
DK/NA                 1      1      2      -      1      1      1      -      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%     1%     9%     6%     5%     6%     4%    18%     4%
Less likely           4      6      2      5      4      3      4      1      2
Doesn't make diff    90     92     89     88     89     90     91     78     93
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      2      1      1      3      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%     2%     8%     4%     7%     3%     4%     4%
Less likely           3      5      2      2      3      4      3      2
Doesn't make diff    90     92     89     93     88     91     91     93
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           4%     2%     7%     2%     3%     5%     3%     4%
Less likely           4      8      4      3      4      4      5      4
Doesn't make diff    91     89     88     95     92     89     92     92
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      -      1      1      -
 
 
7. In deciding your vote for President how important is the vice-presidential candidate - Very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Very important       37%    33%    38%    41%    32%    43%    37%    42%    39%
Smwht important      45     51     46     40     44     46     44     47     46
Not too important    13     12     13     14     18      8     15      2     11
Not imprtnt at all    4      2      2      5      4      3      3      9      3
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      2      -      1      -      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very important       43%    38%    46%    47%    36%    49%    41%    51%    44%
Smwht important      40     42     39     38     41     40     43     31     42
Not too important    11     15      9     11     15      8     12      8      8
Not imprtnt at all    4      4      5      4      7      2      4      6      6
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1      -      5      -
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very important       37%    37%    36%    36%    32%    41%    37%    38%
Smwht important      45     46     47     46     44     46     45     43
Not too important    14     14     15     14     18     11     15     13
Not imprtnt at all    3      3      3      4      5      2      3      5
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very important       41%    32%    45%    43%    32%    48%    39%    38%
Smwht important      44     50     41     41     47     41     46     45
Not too important    12     14     11     13     16      9     13     13
Not imprtnt at all    3      3      3      3      5      1      3      3
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -
 
 
8. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Yes                  29%    15%    45%    28%    23%    35%    27%    35%    33%
No                   54     65     43     56     58     51     56     50     57
DK/NA                17     21     12     16     19     14     17     15     10
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  34%    16%    56%    25%    29%    39%    30%    53%    37%
No                   47     63     29     54     52     43     51     28     45
DK/NA                19     21     15     20     19     18     19     19     18
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Yes                  34%    14%    51%    31%    26%    41%    33%    38%
No                   49     68     37     47     55     44     49     44
DK/NA                17     18     11     22     19     15     18     19
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Yes                  33%    15%    52%    29%    27%    39%    32%    35%
No                   48     61     35     52     51     44     49     50
DK/NA                19     24     13     19     22     16     19     16
 
 
9. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely          14%     3%    25%    15%     9%    20%    13%    20%    22%
Less likely          24     43      3     26     27     22     26     15     28
Doesn't make diff    60     52     71     58     63     56     59     64     50
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      2      2      1      1
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          16%     4%    32%    11%    11%    21%    15%    18%    18%
Less likely          24     42      8     28     28     21     28      9     21
Doesn't make diff    57     52     58     57     58     56     55     71     60
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3      2      3      2      3      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          19%     5%    29%    20%    12%    25%    18%    21%
Less likely          21     38      8     21     26     17     23     24
Doesn't make diff    57     54     62     58     60     55     56     53
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      2      3      2      1
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          18%     4%    30%    17%    13%    22%    18%    20%
Less likely          21     43      6     22     23     20     23     24
Doesn't make diff    59     52     63     58     63     55     56     54
DK/NA                 2      2      1      3      2      3      2      3
 
 
9a. If John McCain chooses Tim Pawlenty to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? (MN & WI only)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          18%    37%     6%    16%    20%    17%    19%    22%
Less likely          23      5     35     24     22     23     22     28
Doesn't make diff    56     56     57     57     56     57     56     49
DK/NA                 3      2      1      3      2      4      3      1
 
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           4%     8%     1%     3%     5%     3%     4%     4%
Less likely           7      5     10      6      8      7      7      8
Doesn't make diff    81     78     84     83     81     81     81     83
DK/NA                 8     10      5      8      6      9      8      6
 
 
10. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think she would enthusiastically promote Barack Obama's agenda at the expense of her own ideas or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Yes                  38%    19%    60%    40%    37%    39%    38%    43%    47%
No                   44     65     25     39     48     40     44     44     35
DK/NA                18     16     15     21     14     21     18     13     19
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  41%    33%    53%    39%    43%    40%    43%    32%    42%
No                   43     52     31     47     43     43     42     50     42
DK/NA                16     15     16     14     14     18     16     18     16
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Yes                  42%    26%    57%    40%    40%    43%    42%    41%
No                   42     58     29     42     44     39     41     44
DK/NA                17     16     15     18     16     18     18     15
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Yes                  41%    26%    56%    36%    38%    43%    42%    44%
No                   43     60     29     44     48     38     42     40
DK/NA                16     14     15     19     14     19     16     16
 
 
11. If Hillary Clinton becomes Vice-President, do you think Bill Clinton would be a problem to the Obama administration or not?
                     
          LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Yes                  44%    64%    28%    40%    47%    41%    45%    34%    36%
No                   50     29     66     54     49     51     50     56     58
DK/NA                 6      7      6      5      4      8      5     10      5
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Yes                  40%    59%    25%    41%    46%    35%    43%    23%    38%
No                   54     36     70     55     48     59     51     68     57
DK/NA                 6      5      5      4      6      6      6      9      6
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Yes                  37%    57%    21%    38%    41%    33%    37%    30%
No                   56     33     73     55     54     58     55     62
DK/NA                 7     10      6      7      6      9      8      8
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Yes                  41%    66%    23%    43%    46%    37%    42%    37%
No                   54     30     73     50     49     58     53     59
DK/NA                 5      4      4      6      4      6      5      4
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Approve              31%    66%     5%    23%    34%    28%    32%    31%    25%
Disapprove           63     26     94     72     61     66     63     66     69
DK/NA                 6      8      1      5      6      6      6      2      6
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              26%    64%     5%    19%    31%    22%    29%     9%    21%
Disapprove           67     28     92     74     64     70     65     87     75
DK/NA                 6      8      2      7      5      7      6      4      4
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Approve              24%    59%     4%    18%    26%    23%    26%    23%
Disapprove           70     32     93     76     68     71     69     73
DK/NA                 6      9      2      6      5      7      5      4
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Approve              27%    64%     4%    22%    30%    24%    29%    24%
Disapprove           67     26     93     71     66     68     66     74
DK/NA                 6     10      2      6      5      8      6      2
 
 
13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        3%     8%     1%     2%     5%     2%     3%     4%     1%
Smwht satisfied      21     44      4     16     24     18     22     22     21
Smwht dissatisfied   30     31     23     33     31     29     31     22     32
Very dissatisfied    46     16     72     48     40     50     43     51     47
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        2%     4%     1%     1%     3%     1%     1%     2%     1%
Smwht satisfied      14     33      3     10     17     12     17      -     11
Smwht dissatisfied   27     41     17     28     27     27     30     13     24
Very dissatisfied    56     21     79     60     52     59     51     82     62
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      -      3      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        3%     5%     1%     3%     3%     3%     3%     3%
Smwht satisfied      18     36      6     15     20     16     18     16
Smwht dissatisfied   32     42     25     31     31     32     32     29
Very dissatisfied    47     17     69     49     46     48     47     53
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        1%     3%     1%     1%     1%     2%     1%     1%
Smwht satisfied      18     43      4     14     19     18     19     13
Smwht dissatisfied   32     42     22     33     33     30     33     34
Very dissatisfied    47     12     72     50     45     49     46     52
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
 
14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Right thing          39%    74%     7%    37%    46%    33%    42%    31%    39%
Wrong thing          55     18     90     58     49     60     53     65     54
DK/NA                 6      8      3      5      5      6      5      4      7
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          32%    71%     9%    25%    39%    26%    37%     1%    29%
Wrong thing          60     21     87     65     56     64     55     96     64
DK/NA                 8      8      4      9      5     10      8      3      6
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Right thing          31%    65%     8%    28%    34%    28%    32%    26%
Wrong thing          61     28     85     64     59     64     60     63
DK/NA                 8      8      6      8      7      8      8     11
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Right thing          35%    77%    11%    29%    39%    31%    37%    35%
Wrong thing          59     18     84     66     57     61     58     62
DK/NA                 6      5      5      5      4      8      5      4
 
 
15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    39%     9%    65%    41%    35%    42%    36%    49%    43%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       56     87     27     54     61     50     58     45     55
DK/NA                 6      4      8      5      4      8      6      6      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    41%    13%    62%    40%    34%    46%    37%    65%    46%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       52     82     31     52     61     44     55     23     46
DK/NA                 8      5      8      8      5     10      7     11      8
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    38%    14%    58%    37%    31%    45%    37%    39%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       54     82     35     55     62     46     55     52
DK/NA                 8      3      7      8      7      9      8      9
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A. Begin immediate
withdrawal/18 mos    41%    15%    65%    38%    37%    45%    40%    46%
B. Stay until stable/
no fixed dates       51     81     26     56     57     46     54     47
DK/NA                 7      4      9      7      6      8      7      8
 
 
16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        16%    24%    10%    15%    20%    13%    16%    11%    11%
Falling behind       21     14     29     19     18     23     20     20     17
Holding steady       62     62     60     64     61     63     63     67     71
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      1      1      3      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        10%    17%     6%     8%    11%     9%    10%    11%     7%
Falling behind       27     13     31     32     25     29     26     31     29
Holding steady       62     70     62     59     64     60     63     58     64
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      2      1      -      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        15%    20%    10%    15%    18%    12%    14%    14%
Falling behind       23     13     28     25     22     24     22     22
Holding steady       61     66     61     59     60     63     62     62
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        13%    19%     9%    11%    16%    10%    12%    14%
Falling behind       24     14     33     23     23     25     23     25
Holding steady       62     67     58     65     61     64     64     61
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1      1      -
 
 
17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now - (READ OPTIONS, ORDER ROTATED)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds   8%     8%    10%     8%    10%     6%     9%     6%    10%
B. Real estate val   11     12      8     12     13      9     11     13      7
C. Health care cost  19     14     25     20     19     19     21      8     15
D. Gasoline prices   43     48     40     41     42     43     41     53     48
E. Food prices       14     13     13     15     10     17     14     13     18
DK/NA                 5      5      4      5      5      6      5      7      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds   9%     9%     8%    10%     8%    10%     9%     7%    11%
B. Real estate val   12     15     13     10     14     10     12     12     13
C. Health care cost  17     12     19     20     16     17     17     16     14
D. Gasoline prices   44     48     41     42     45     44     45     38     46
E. Food prices       13      9     14     14     12     13     12     18     12
DK/NA                 6      6      5      5      5      6      5      9      4
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds   9%    11%    10%     9%    10%     8%    10%    11%
B. Real estate val    9     11      8      9     11      6      8      6
C. Health care cost  21     11     29     20     19     23     21     19
D. Gasoline prices   42     52     37     40     44     41     43     49
E. Food prices       14     11     14     16     11     16     13     10
DK/NA                 6      4      3      7      6      5      5      5
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A. Retirement funds  10%    10%     8%    12%    10%    10%    10%    11%
B. Real estate val    6      6      6      5      6      6      6      5
C. Health care cost  21     18     26     20     20     23     22     23
D. Gasoline prices   43     50     41     41     44     43     44     47
E. Food prices       15     13     15     14     14     15     13     10
DK/NA                 5      2      4      7      6      4      5      5
 
 
18. As you may know, there is a proposed state constitutional amendment on the November ballot. It says that the state shall not discriminate against or grant preferential treatment to any group or individual on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public contracting, or public education. Do you think that you will vote for or against this state constitutional amendment? (CO only)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
For                  66%    61%    71%    68%    67%    66%    66%    68%    63%
Against              15     18     15     13     17     14     16     14     18
DK/NA                18     21     14     19     16     20     18     18     18