September 23, 2008 - Change Puts Obama Up Slightly In Four Battlegrounds, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 45 MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44 MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45 WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42

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By 19 - 24 point margins, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say Democrat Barack Obama, not Republican John McCain, is the candidate of change, helping lift Sen. Obama into the lead in these battleground states, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.

More voters in each state also would rather see Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Joseph Biden become President, even though voters in each state say Sen. McCain's selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as running mate is a good choice. Sen. Obama has double-digit leads among women in every state except Minnesota, where his six-point lead leaves him with only a two-point edge among all voters. Overall results show:
  • Colorado: Obama leads 49 - 45 percent, compared to 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama August 24;
  • Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 44 percent, compared to 46 - 42 percent July 24;
  • Minnesota: Obama leads 47 - 45 percent, compared to 46 - 44 percent July 24;
  • Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, compared to 50 - 39 percent July 24.
"With a lousy economy, an unpopular war and an even less popular Republican President, it's difficult to find voters who don't want change, " said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Obama, who leads in all four states, has made himself the candidate of change with a dual-track strategy: Joining Sen. McCain at the hip with President George Bush, who symbolizes the status quo, while sharply defining himself and his policies as the antithesis of the President. The Wall Street meltdown while these polls were in the field probably fed the public desire for change and seemed to benefit Sen. Obama," Brown added.

"Despite Gov. Palin's presence on the Republican ticket, Obama continues to do well enough among white women - who are the key swing group in the election - to take the lead. His ability to remain competitive among white women and hold down Sen. McCain's margin among white men will be the key to his winning the election."

President Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 24 - 71 percent in Colorado;
  • 25 - 71 percent in Michigan;
  • 24 - 71 percent in Minnesota;
  • 26 - 69 percent in Wisconsin.
Colorado

Obama leads 55 - 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 - 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 - 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 - 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 - 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 - 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.

Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.

McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate is a good choice, voters say 55 - 38 percent, and Obama's selection of Sen. Biden is a good choice, voters say 52 - 32 percent.

But by a 49 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 - 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 51 percent of Colorado voters say. Obama better understands the economy, voters say 47 - 41 percent, while McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 63 - 29 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 - 40 percent, compared to a 44 - 44 percent tie July 24.

"Two years ago when the Democrats picked Denver for their convention, one of the main reasons was the hope it would help them win Colorado, which is shaping up as a key state in the Electoral College. Sen. Obama has come from behind to take the lead there and it is a reasonable assumption that the convention has something to do with this," Brown said.

Michigan

Michigan women voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, while men back McCain 49 - 44 percent. White voters back McCain 51 - 41 percent, as black voters support Obama 93 - 5 percent. The Democrat leads 51 - 48 percent among voters 18 to 34, and gets 47 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain's 45 percent. Voters over 55 back Obama 49 - 41 percent.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 - 21 percent.

Palin's selection is a good choice, voters say 58 - 32 percent, while these same voters say 51 - 30 percent that Biden is a good choice.

By a 47 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women back Biden 50 - 38 percent while men go 47 percent for Palin and 45 percent for Biden.

The economy is the most important issue, 58 percent of Michigan voters say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 50 - 38 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 64 - 26 percent.

"Sen. Obama's lead in Michigan is built upon two key changes since the last Quinnipiac University poll: He has consolidated the Democratic base to the same degree that Sen. McCain has coalesced the Republican vote, and his lead among those who see the economy as the most important issue has almost doubled, from 50 - 39 percent to 55 - 35 percent," Brown said.

Minnesota

Obama leads McCain 49 - 43 percent with women, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters go with McCain 48 - 44 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years go 51 - 43 percent for Obama. Voters 35 to 54 go 51 - 43 percent for McCain, with the Democrat up 50 - 40 percent among voters over 55.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 43 - 24 percent.

Palin is a good choice, voters say 56 - 35 percent and Biden is a good choice, these voters say 52 - 31 percent. They would rather see Biden step up as President, voters say 50 - 41 percent, including women 49 - 39 percent and men 50 - 43 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 55 percent of voters say. Voters tie 45 - 45 percent on who better understands the economy, but say 66 - 24 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

In the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman tops Democrat Al Franken 49 - 42 percent, compared to 53 - 38 percent July 24.

"Sen. John McCain is within striking distance in Minnesota for two reasons: Republicans held their convention in the state and the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin brought a new wave of independent women to the GOP ticket, offsetting a big swing by independent men to Obama," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Al Franken now trails Sen. Norman Coleman by seven points, down from 15, mainly because Democratic support for Coleman has dropped eight points from 19 points in the last poll."

Wisconsin

Wisconsin women voters back Obama 53 - 37 percent while men back McCain 48 - 45 percent. Obama leads 55 - 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 47 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 49 - 43 percent among voters over 55.

Obama rather than McCain is the candidate of change, voters say 45 - 22 percent.

Palin is a good choice, voters say 57 - 33 percent and Biden is a good choice, voters say 47 - 33 percent. Voters prefer Biden as President 46 - 42 percent. Women prefer Biden 47 - 37 percent while men back Palin by a narrow 46 - 44 percent.

The economy is the biggest issue, 51 percent say, and Obama understands it better, voters say 47 - 40 percent. McCain understands foreign policy better, voters say 65 - 23 percent.

"Sen. McCain has closed the gap from 11 points to seven by picking up support from independent women, but Sen. Obama is holding his own among blue collar workers, a group McCain must swing into his column if he wants to win the state," Richards said.

From September 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,418 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,364 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
  • 1,301 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
  • 1,313 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

These surveys of Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
COLORADO             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Obama                49%     7%    91%    51%    42%    55%    44%    68%    55%
McCain               45     89      6     40     49     40     51     26     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      2      1      2      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      3      7      6      4      4      6      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q12.............
                                          Energ  Denvr/ Arap/         RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Polcy  Bouldr Jeff   West   State
 
Obama                58%    58%     8%    42%    64%    51%    38%    37%
McCain               40     38     89     54     29     42     58     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      3      3      5      5      3      6
 
                                          WHITE..................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                48%    52%    46%    40%    49%    38%    49%    20%    47%
McCain               48     42     47     53     47     54     47     74     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      2      2      1      3      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      5      6      5      3      5      4      5      5
 
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ25
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                10%    89%     4%    66%
McCain               85      8     91     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      2      4      5
 
                     Sep 23  Aug 24  Jul 24  Jun 26
TREND:               2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                49      46      44      49
McCain               45      47      46      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       5       7       5
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......
                           CAND CHOICEQ1
CO                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              87%    88%    85%
Might change         12     11     13
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
MICHIGAN             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                48%     7%    89%    49%    44%    52%    41%    93%    60%
McCain               44     88      8     42     49     40     51      5     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      3      8      6      7      7      2      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q12.............
                                          Energ  Wayne  Oak/          RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Polcy  County Macomb SthW   State
 
Obama                59%    55%     4%    36%    63%    42%    43%    46%
McCain               35     35     94     58     33     52     50     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      -      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      8      2      5      3      5      5     10
 
                                          WHITE..................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                51%    47%    49%    41%    42%    37%    45%    27%    39%
McCain               48     45     41     50     52     55     47     69     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      6      9      8      5      7      8      5      8
 
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ25
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                11%    85%     5%    66%
McCain               84      9     92     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      5      3      7
 
                     Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
TREND:               2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                48      46      48
McCain               44      42      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       9       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
MI                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              80%    82%    78%
Might change         19     17     20
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
MINNESOTA            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Obama                47%     4%    92%    43%    45%    49%    44%    56%
McCain               45     93      5     45     47     43     48     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      3      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      2      3     10      5      7      7      7
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q12.............
                                          Energ  Twin   Twin
                     War    Econ   Terr   Polcy  Cities Suburb West   East
 
Obama                63%    53%     4%    34%    60%    38%    42%    43%
McCain               33     38     94     62     33     55     47     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      1      2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      8      1      3      7      4      8      5
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                51%    43%    50%    40%    52%    42%    46%    29%    37%
McCain               43     51     40     51     43     51     46     64     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      2      1      1      2      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      5      8      8      4      6      8      6      9
 
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ25
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                 9%    84%     4%    65%
McCain               87     10     94     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      4      2      7
 
                     Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
TTREND:              2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                47      46      54
McCain               45      44      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 6       8       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
MN                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              85%    84%    86%
Might change         15     15     14
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                      Union
WISCONSIN            Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Obama                49%     6%    90%    42%    45%    53%    46%    58%
McCain               42     91      5     44     48     37     45     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      4      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      5     10      5      9      7      8
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q12.............
                                          Energ         Milwak        RestOf
                     War    Econ   Terr   Polcy  Milwak Vicnty South  State
 
Obama                58%    57%     3%    42%    54%    39%    57%    47%
McCain               34     35     89     55     34     56     32     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      8      8      1      9      4      9      7
 
                                          WHITES.................................
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath
 
Obama                55%    47%    49%    45%    50%    42%    51%    31%    43%
McCain               38     44     43     45     46     51     40     63     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      1      -      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      8      8      3      5      9      5      9
 
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ25
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                12%    87%     4%    69%
McCain               82      9     90     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      4      7
 
                     Sep 23  Jul 24  Jun 26
TREND:               2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                49      50      52
McCain               42      39      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       9       8
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......
                            CAND CHOICEQ1
WI                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              84%    86%    81%
Might change         15     12     19
DK/NA                 1      2      -
 
 
2a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Udall the Democrat and Bob Schaffer the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Udall or Schaffer? This table includes "Leaners".
                     SENATE LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                             Union
COLORADO ONLY        Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Udall                48%    13%    86%    49%    44%    53%    44%    64%    52%
Schaffer             40     80      8     31     46     34     45     21     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                11      7      6     17      8     13     10     13     13
 
 
2a.If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Al Franken the Democrat and Norm Coleman the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2a) As of today, do you lean more toward Franken or Coleman? This table includes "Leaners".
                     SENATE LIKELY VOTERS...................................
                                                                      Union
MINNESOTA ONLY       Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Franken              42%     4%    84%    38%    42%    43%    40%    53%
Coleman              49     93     11     50     51     48     52     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      4      3      2      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      1      4      8      3      8      6      4
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Favorable            58%    24%    90%    62%    54%    62%    54%    73%    59%
Unfavorable          33     68      4     26     37     29     37     16     31
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      5     10      7      7      6     11     10
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2      2      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            54%    21%    86%    55%    52%    55%    48%    91%    60%
Unfavorable          31     65      6     27     37     27     36      4     27
Hvn't hrd enough     12     11      7     15     10     14     13      3     11
REFUSED               3      3      1      4      2      4      4      2      3
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            54%    17%    87%    56%    52%    55%    52%    58%
Unfavorable          30     66      4     25     32     28     32     26
Hvn't hrd enough     12     13      7     16     12     12     13     12
REFUSED               3      3      1      3      3      4      3      4
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            53%    16%    85%    50%    48%    58%    51%    57%
Unfavorable          31     67      3     32     37     25     33     28
Hvn't hrd enough     12     13     11     13     11     13     12     13
REFUSED               4      4      1      6      4      4      4      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Favorable            56%    88%    24%    55%    60%    51%    62%    31%    52%
Unfavorable          35      8     67     32     31     39     31     49     40
Hvn't hrd enough      6      3      6      9      6      6      4     19      7
REFUSED               3      1      4      3      2      3      3      2      1
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            51%    89%    17%    53%    55%    47%    57%    14%    45%
Unfavorable          37      6     70     35     34     40     31     72     44
Hvn't hrd enough      9      4     10      9      9      9      8     10      8
REFUSED               3      2      3      3      2      4      3      4      3
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            56%    93%    23%    58%    62%    52%    59%    50%
Unfavorable          32      3     67     24     30     33     30     36
Hvn't hrd enough      9      4      8     15      6     12      9     11
REFUSED               3      -      2      3      2      3      2      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            49%    91%    17%    52%    53%    46%    53%    42%
Unfavorable          37      4     67     34     37     37     34     46
Hvn't hrd enough     11      5     14     10      8     13     10     10
REFUSED               3      -      2      5      2      4      3      3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Favorable            40%    15%    68%    39%    41%    39%    37%    49%    49%
Unfavorable          27     53      4     22     32     21     30     12     22
Hvn't hrd enough     32     32     26     38     26     38     31     39     29
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      1      2      2      -      -
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            35%    11%    62%    34%    33%    36%    31%    62%    42%
Unfavorable          23     46      4     21     32     16     26      -     17
Hvn't hrd enough     40     42     33     42     34     46     41     36     38
REFUSED               2      1      -      2      1      2      2      2      2
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            39%    12%    68%    38%    42%    37%    38%    45%
Unfavorable          20     44      3     18     26     15     22     18
Hvn't hrd enough     38     43     29     43     30     45     38     35
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      2      2      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            34%     9%    58%    31%    34%    34%    33%    39%
Unfavorable          23     48      4     26     31     16     24     21
Hvn't hrd enough     41     43     38     42     34     48     42     38
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Favorable            43%    81%     9%    39%    45%    41%    48%    26%    41%
Unfavorable          35      5     69     33     31     38     32     45     42
Hvn't hrd enough     20     12     20     27     22     18     18     29     16
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      1      2      2      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Favorable            40%    72%    12%    40%    42%    38%    45%     6%    31%
Unfavorable          29      3     58     26     25     32     26     43     32
Hvn't hrd enough     29     24     29     31     31     28     27     47     35
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      2      2      2      3      2
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            43%    81%    13%    41%    44%    42%    46%    37%
Unfavorable          33      2     64     30     32     33     30     38
Hvn't hrd enough     24     16     22     28     23     24     24     25
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Favorable            40%    82%    10%    39%    44%    36%    43%    33%
Unfavorable          31      2     57     29     29     33     29     39
Hvn't hrd enough     27     15     31     29     25     28     26     27
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      2      2      1
 
 
6. Do you think John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Good choice          55%    88%    21%    54%    61%    49%    61%    35%    52%
Bad choice           38      8     71     36     33     42     33     52     42
DK/NA                 8      4      8     10      6      9      7     13      5
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Good choice          58%    86%    30%    60%    63%    54%    62%    30%    52%
Bad choice           32      8     60     28     28     35     28     53     39
DK/NA                10      7     10     12      9     11      9     17      9
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Good choice          56%    89%    28%    55%    58%    55%    58%    53%
Bad choice           35      8     63     34     36     34     32     41
DK/NA                 9      4      9     11      6     11      9      7
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Good choice          57%    92%    30%    56%    61%    53%    60%    53%
Bad choice           33      3     58     33     32     35     31     39
DK/NA                10      5     12     11      7     12      9      7
 
 
7. Do you think Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Good choice          52%    29%    78%    52%    51%    53%    50%    59%    52%
Bad choice           32     54     11     31     38     26     34     24     35
DK/NA                16     17     12     17     11     21     16     16     13
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Good choice          51%    31%    70%    54%    49%    53%    49%    75%    55%
Bad choice           30     45     18     28     37     24     32     14     29
DK/NA                19     24     12     17     14     23     19     11     16
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Good choice          52%    31%    72%    53%    54%    50%    51%    55%
Bad choice           31     46     17     30     32     31     32     29
DK/NA                17     23     11     17     14     19     18     16
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Good choice          47%    23%    69%    45%    44%    50%    47%    54%
Bad choice           33     51     19     35     40     28     34     27
DK/NA                19     26     12     19     16     22     19     19
 
 
8. Does John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President make you more likely to vote for McCain for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely          26%    48%     5%    23%    27%    25%    29%    13%    27%
Less likely          28      5     48     33     25     32     26     28     28
Doesn't make diff    44     46     46     41     46     42     43     59     43
DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      2      1      2      -      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          24%    42%     6%    26%    25%    23%    28%     6%    19%
Less likely          22      3     43     23     21     23     19     47     24
Doesn't make diff    51     52     50     48     51     51     51     43     55
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      2      3      3      4      2
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          23%    39%     5%    26%    24%    21%    24%    20%
Less likely          24      3     42     26     24     24     23     24
Doesn't make diff    52     58     52     45     50     53     51     55
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          23%    41%     6%    26%    25%    21%    24%    19%
Less likely          21      3     37     19     22     20     20     24
Doesn't make diff    54     53     56     53     52     56     54     54
DK/NA                 2      2      2      2      1      3      2      3
 
 
9. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely          16%     5%    30%    13%    14%    17%    14%    20%    30%
Less likely          13     21      3     13     17      8     13     12     18
Doesn't make diff    69     73     64     70     65     72     70     64     47
DK/NA                 3      1      4      4      3      3      3      4      5
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely          16%     3%    28%    18%    15%    16%    13%    35%    17%
Less likely          13     22      4     12     16      9     15      1      8
Doesn't make diff    68     70     67     68     66     70     69     60     71
DK/NA                 3      4      1      3      2      4      3      4      4
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          15%     4%    25%    16%    16%    15%    15%    20%
Less likely          11     20      4     12     11     12     12     10
Doesn't make diff    72     75     70     70     72     71     71     68
DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      2      2      2      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely          13%     3%    23%    11%    13%    13%    12%    16%
Less likely          13     19      5     16     17     10     14      9
Doesn't make diff    71     76     70     71     69     73     72     72
DK/NA                 2      3      1      2      1      4      2      3
 
 
10. If it became necessary, who would you rather see become president of the United States, Sarah Palin or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Palin                42%    82%     4%    37%    46%    37%    47%    20%    36%
Biden                49     12     86     50     45     52     45     63     57
DK/NA                10      6      9     13      9     10      8     17      7
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Palin                42%    76%    12%    43%    47%    38%    47%     8%    33%
Biden                47     15     82     46     45     50     43     79     56
DK/NA                10      9      6     11      8     12     10     13     11
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Palin                41%    85%     8%    34%    43%    39%    43%    36%
Biden                50      9     86     52     50     49     47     56
DK/NA                 9      6      6     14      7     12     10      7
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Palin                42%    84%    11%    41%    46%    37%    44%    33%
Biden                46      6     81     42     44     47     44     54
DK/NA                13     10      7     16     10     15     12     13
 
 
11. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vice presidential candidates picked by Barack Obama and John McCain have little to do with which candidate I will vote for, for president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Agree                58%    58%    59%    59%    60%    56%    57%    62%    59%
Disagree             39     41     37     38     38     40     40     34     36
DK/NA                 3      1      4      3      2      4      3      4      4
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Agree                60%    61%    66%    55%    64%    56%    58%    73%    62%
Disagree             36     36     31     42     33     39     38     26     33
DK/NA                 3      3      2      3      3      4      4      1      5
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Agree                61%    63%    65%    57%    64%    58%    60%    63%
Disagree             36     36     34     39     34     38     37     35
DK/NA                 3      1      2      3      2      4      3      1
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Agree                65%    62%    72%    61%    69%    62%    64%    69%
Disagree             32     36     26     36     29     35     33     29
DK/NA                 3      2      2      2      2      3      2      2
 
 
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             7%    16%     1%     5%     8%     6%     8%     5%     8%
The war in Iraq      12     10     16     11      9     15     12     15      6
The economy          51     45     54     54     49     53     50     52     51
Illegal immigration   8      9      4      8     10      6      7     13      8
Energy policy        10     11     10     10     13      7     11      6     10
Health care           7      3     12      6      5      9      7      8     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      3      1      2      3      2      2      -      4
DK/NA                 3      3      2      4      4      3      4      2      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             8%    19%     1%     8%    10%     7%    10%     1%     7%
The war in Iraq      11      9     13      9     10     12     12      5      7
The economy          58     46     66     59     55     60     56     71     63
Illegal immigration   2      2      1      3      2      2      2      -      2
Energy policy         6      9      5      5      7      5      7      3      6
Health care          10      9     13      9      9     10      8     17     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      4      1      4      4      2      3      2      4
DK/NA                 2      3      1      3      2      2      2      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             7%    17%     -      7%     8%     7%     8%     7%
The war in Iraq      10      6     13     12      9     12     10      8
The economy          55     46     59     58     54     56     55     58
Illegal immigration   3      6      2      1      3      3      3      4
Energy policy         9     13      9      7     13      6     10      9
Health care           9      4     14     10      7     12      9     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      5      2      2      3      3      3      3
DK/NA                 3      4      1      3      3      2      3      2
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Terrorism             7%    15%     1%     6%     8%     5%     7%     6%
The war in Iraq      12      9     12     12      9     14     11      8
The economy          51     40     59     52     50     53     52     59
Illegal immigration   3      3      1      4      4      2      3      4
Energy policy        10     12      9     10     14      5     10      8
Health care          11     11     14      8      8     14     10     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      5      2      4      5      3      4      2
DK/NA                 3      4      2      5      4      3      3      3
 
 
13. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     2%     1%     2%     2%     2%     2%     4%     4%
Less likely          30     10     51     30     28     31     27     35     32
Doesn't make diff    68     88     47     68     69     66     70     59     65
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     3%     -      2%     2%     2%     2%     -      -
Less likely          25     10     45     23     21     29     23     43     25
Doesn't make diff    73     87     54     74     77     69     75     57     74
DK/NA                 -      -      1      1      -      -      -      -      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           1%     4%     -      1%     2%     1%     2%     1%
Less likely          25      5     45     25     25     26     24     28
Doesn't make diff    72     91     54     73     73     72     73     71
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           2%     5%     1%     1%     3%     2%     2%     1%
Less likely          25      8     40     24     23     26     24     27
Doesn't make diff    72     87     57     75     73     71     73     70
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
 
14. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
More likely           6%     3%    10%     4%     5%     7%     4%    11%    11%
Less likely           2      4      1      2      2      2      3      1      2
Doesn't make diff    91     93     87     92     92     89     93     84     85
DK/NA                 1      -      2      2      1      2      1      4      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
More likely           6%     1%    14%     4%     5%     7%     3%    30%     6%
Less likely           4      5      3      4      6      2      4      1      4
Doesn't make diff    89     93     83     92     88     90     92     69     90
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           4%     3%     8%     2%     3%     5%     3%     3%
Less likely           4      8      1      4      4      4      4      5
Doesn't make diff    91     88     90     93     92     90     92     91
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
More likely           5%     1%    11%     3%     6%     5%     4%     6%
Less likely           4      7      2      3      5      3      4      2
Doesn't make diff    90     91     87     94     88     92     92     92
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
 
 
15. How likely is it that the presidential debates could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Very likely           6%     2%     6%    10%     5%     8%     5%     8%    10%
Smwht likely         16     17      9     23     16     16     15     26     18
Not too likely       24     25     23     24     23     25     27     16     19
Not likely at all    52     56     59     41     54     49     52     45     50
DK/NA                 1      -      2      2      1      2      1      4      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very likely           7%     5%     6%    11%     8%     7%     6%    11%     8%
Smwht likely         19     15     16     24     21     17     19     18     22
Not too likely       21     23     21     20     20     23     22     14     20
Not likely at all    52     56     58     44     51     52     51     57     49
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very likely           5%     1%     3%     8%     4%     5%     5%     6%
Smwht likely         19     15     14     26     17     22     20     19
Not too likely       27     31     25     28     27     26     28     23
Not likely at all    48     53     58     36     51     46     47     52
DK/NA                 1      -      -      1      -      1      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very likely           7%     4%    10%     6%     5%     8%     6%     7%
Smwht likely         18     12     14     26     17     19     19     18
Not too likely       24     27     20     29     24     25     25     23
Not likely at all    49     54     55     39     52     46     48     50
DK/NA                 2      2      1      1      1      2      1      1
 
 
                     CAND CHOICEQ1
                     Obama  McCain
CO
Very likely           7%     4%
Smwht likely         13     16
Not too likely       25     25
Not likely at all    53     53
DK/NA                 1      1
 
MI
Very likely           7%     5%
Smwht likely         17     19
Not too likely       22     22
Not likely at all    54     53
DK/NA                 -      1
 
MN
Very likely           4%     4%
Smwht likely         18     18
Not too likely       26     29
Not likely at all    53     49
DK/NA                 -      -
 
WI
Very likely           6%     5%
Smwht likely         16     19
Not too likely       24     26
Not likely at all    53     49
DK/NA                 1      2
 
 
16. How likely is it that the vice-presidential debate could change your mind about who you will vote for this year? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Very likely           4%     3%     5%     4%     3%     4%     3%     9%     8%
Smwht likely         12     11      7     16      9     15     11     19     13
Not too likely       19     19     14     24     19     19     21     17     17
Not likely at all    64     67     73     55     67     60     65     55     61
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very likely           6%     3%     4%     9%     5%     6%     5%    11%     5%
Smwht likely         14     13     15     15     14     15     14     12     17
Not too likely       16     16     12     16     15     17     17      8     19
Not likely at all    64     67     68     59     66     62     63     69     58
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very likely           3%     1%     1%     6%     3%     3%     3%     3%
Smwht likely         13      9     10     17     10     15     14     16
Not too likely       24     24     22     28     24     25     25     18
Not likely at all    59     65     68     48     63     56     58     63
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very likely           4%     4%     5%     4%     4%     4%     4%     6%
Smwht likely         12     10     11     13     10     15     13     12
Not too likely       20     21     14     28     19     22     21     14
Not likely at all    62     63     70     55     66     58     61     67
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
 
                     CAND CHOICEQ1
                     Obama  McCain
CO
Very likely           3%     4%
Smwht likely         10     12
Not too likely       19     20
Not likely at all    67     63
DK/NA                 -      -
 
MI
Very likely           3%     5%
Smwht likely         15     13
Not too likely       13     19
Not likely at all    68     63
DK/NA                 -      1
 
MN
Very likely           1%     3%
Smwht likely         11     11
Not too likely       24     25
Not likely at all    64     60
DK/NA                 -      -
 
WI
Very likely           4%     3%
Smwht likely         11     11
Not too likely       15     25
Not likely at all    70     59
DK/NA                 1      1
 
 
17. Which of the following statements do you agree with: John McCain is the candidate who will bring change OR Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change OR Neither will bring change?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
McCain               22%    48%     3%    15%    21%    23%    24%    15%    22%
Obama                46     11     86     43     40     51     41     65     48
Neither              26     35      9     31     33     19     28     16     27
DK/NA                 6      6      2     10      6      7      7      4      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
McCain               21%    46%     3%    18%    20%    22%    24%     2%    15%
Obama                43     11     80     39     38     48     38     80     52
Neither              30     37     15     35     37     24     32     15     27
DK/NA                 6      7      2      7      5      7      7      3      6
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               24%    56%     3%    21%    23%    25%    26%    19%
Obama                43      7     83     38     39     45     40     51
Neither              28     33     11     35     32     24     29     28
DK/NA                 5      5      4      6      5      5      5      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               22%    57%     2%    17%    24%    20%    24%    18%
Obama                45      5     83     39     40     50     42     48
Neither              27     33     13     36     30     24     28     31
DK/NA                 6      5      2      9      6      6      6      3
 
 
18. Which of the following statements do you agree with: I will be better off a year from now if John McCain is elected president OR I will be better off a year from now if Barack Obama is elected president OR I will not be better off a year from now?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Better off/McCain    29%    60%     4%    22%    32%    25%    32%    18%    20%
Better off/Obama     34      4     73     29     30     39     29     55     45
Not be better off    27     25     18     38     28     27     29     17     26
DK/NA                 9     11      5     11     10      9      9     10      9
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Better off/McCain    25%    56%     3%    21%    27%    23%    28%     4%    19%
Better off/Obama     32      6     64     27     27     37     27     70     37
Not be better off    34     32     28     40     38     30     36     19     34
DK/NA                 9      6      5     12      8     10      9      7     10
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Better off/McCain    29%    68%     2%    24%    34%    25%    31%    19%
Better off/Obama     31      2     63     27     29     32     28     34
Not be better off    32     24     28     40     30     34     33     40
DK/NA                 8      6      6      9      7      9      8      7
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Better off/McCain    27%    68%     1%    25%    32%    23%    30%    20%
Better off/Obama     34      1     67     28     29     39     32     37
Not be better off    30     22     29     34     32     27     30     35
DK/NA                 9      8      4     12      7     10      9      8
 
 
19. Who do you think better understands the economy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
McCain               41%    77%     9%    38%    45%    37%    45%    27%    42%
Obama                47     13     83     47     43     50     43     66     51
DK/NA                12     10      8     15     12     12     12      7      7
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
McCain               38%    76%     8%    32%    43%    32%    43%     5%    25%
Obama                50     14     83     52     45     54     43     90     58
DK/NA                13     10      9     16     12     13     14      5     17
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               45%    87%     9%    46%    47%    43%    48%    37%
Obama                45      6     83     42     44     46     42     54
DK/NA                10      7      8     12      9     11     10      8
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               40%    84%     9%    39%    45%    36%    43%    33%
Obama                47      8     82     43     45     49     44     54
DK/NA                13      8      8     18     10     15     13     13
 
 
20. Who do you think better understands foreign policy - John McCain or Barack Obama?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
McCain               63%    94%    31%    63%    67%    59%    68%    44%    56%
Obama                29      4     58     28     27     31     25     44     35
DK/NA                 8      2     11     10      6     10      7     11      9
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
McCain               64%    93%    37%    64%    70%    59%    70%    26%    60%
Obama                26      3     53     21     23     28     20     55     31
DK/NA                10      3     10     14      7     13      9     19      9
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               66%    95%    40%    69%    66%    65%    69%    64%
Obama                24      2     46     20     26     21     21     27
DK/NA                11      3     14     11      7     14     10      9
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               65%    95%    38%    68%    70%    60%    68%    62%
Obama                23      1     47     19     21     25     21     27
DK/NA                12      3     15     13      9     15     11     11
 
 
21. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Up                   28%    10%    48%    25%    23%    33%    24%    44%    33%
Down                  8     14      3      6      8      8      8      6     10
Same                 60     74     42     65     66     53     64     45     56
DK/NA                 5      3      7      4      3      6      4      5      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Up                   37%    18%    54%    38%    36%    38%    34%    58%    44%
Down                  6     12      3      6      7      5      6      3      2
Same                 51     68     36     51     53     49     55     32     49
DK/NA                 5      3      7      5      3      7      5      7      5
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Up                   29%     8%    40%    34%    25%    32%    27%    30%
Down                  6     13      2      5      7      5      6      8
Same                 60     76     51     58     66     54     61     58
DK/NA                 6      3      7      3      3      8      5      5
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Up                   33%    14%    49%    30%    26%    40%    32%    40%
Down                  5      8      3      6      7      4      6      3
Same                 55     73     42     58     62     49     57     53
DK/NA                 6      5      6      6      4      8      6      4
 
 
22. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Up                   48%    79%    20%    43%    54%    43%    53%    27%    39%
Down                 16      5     33     13     16     17     15     23     25
Same                 31     14     40     38     27     34     28     43     33
DK/NA                 5      2      6      5      4      6      4      7      4
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Up                   47%    74%    19%    52%    54%    41%    52%    16%    41%
Down                 13      4     22     12     11     14     10     30     15
Same                 35     18     53     32     31     38     33     46     38
DK/NA                 5      4      6      4      3      6      5      8      5
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Up                   52%    84%    21%    54%    56%    49%    54%    53%
Down                 11      -     21     12     12     10     10     14
Same                 31     12     51     30     29     33     31     30
DK/NA                 5      4      7      3      3      7      5      4
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Up                   48%    74%    26%    47%    54%    42%    49%    45%
Down                 13      4     22     13     14     13     12     14
Same                 32     17     47     31     27     37     33     35
DK/NA                 7      6      5      8      5      8      6      5
 
 
23. Barack Obama says he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families. John McCain says Obama will actually raise taxes overall on most American families. Whom do you believe?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
McCain               42%    80%     6%    37%    45%    38%    47%    21%    37%
Obama                41      8     79     37     35     46     37     54     47
DK/NA                18     12     14     26     19     16     16     25     16
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
McCain               41%    81%     9%    38%    46%    36%    46%     8%    34%
Obama                39      7     76     38     36     42     33     80     44
DK/NA                20     12     15     25     18     22     21     12     22
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               42%    87%     7%    40%    43%    41%    44%    40%
Obama                38      4     74     36     37     39     36     42
DK/NA                20     10     19     23     20     20     20     17
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
McCain               41%    82%    11%    40%    47%    35%    43%    37%
Obama                41      5     75     36     37     45     39     43
DK/NA                18     13     15     24     17     20     18     20
 
 
24. Do you think the news media has treated Sarah Palin fairly or unfairly?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Fairly               48%    22%    73%    50%    47%    49%    45%    58%    58%
Unfairly             45     73     17     42     48     42     48     34     34
DK/NA                 8      4     10      8      6      9      7      7      8
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Fairly               45%    23%    70%    43%    46%    44%    43%    62%    58%
Unfairly             45     68     22     46     45     45     47     23     36
DK/NA                10      8      8     11      9     11     10     15      7
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Fairly               51%    24%    76%    53%    52%    51%    50%    57%
Unfairly             41     71     18     39     42     41     43     36
DK/NA                 7      5      6      8      6      9      8      7
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Fairly               44%    27%    62%    41%    45%    44%    44%    49%
Unfairly             46     68     28     45     47     45     46     42
DK/NA                10      4     10     14      8     11     10     10
 
 
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Approve              24%    55%     3%    14%    25%    23%    27%    13%    22%
Disapprove           71     37     95     82     71     71     68     84     77
DK/NA                 5      8      2      4      4      6      5      3      -
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Approve              25%    57%     2%    20%    26%    25%    28%     7%    18%
Disapprove           71     36     98     75     71     70     67     93     79
DK/NA                 4      7      -      5      3      5      5      -      3
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Approve              24%    59%     2%    17%    24%    25%    26%    20%
Disapprove           71     35     98     77     72     70     70     77
DK/NA                 5      7      -      6      4      5      5      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Approve              26%    59%     3%    24%    27%    24%    27%    18%
Disapprove           69     32     96     70     67     71     67     79
DK/NA                 5      9      1      7      6      5      6      3
 
 
26. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        2%     4%     1%     1%     2%     2%     2%     2%     5%
Smwht satisfied      17     36      6     11     19     15     18     20     14
Smwht dissatisfied   31     38     22     33     33     29     33     22     29
Very dissatisfied    49     21     71     55     45     52     46     56     52
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      -      1      1      -      -
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        1%     3%     -      1%     2%     1%     1%     2%     1%
Smwht satisfied      14     29      3     13     15     13     15      7     10
Smwht dissatisfied   29     42     18     27     33     26     31     20     28
Very dissatisfied    54     24     79     57     49     59     51     70     60
DK/NA                 1      2      -      2      1      2      1      -      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        1%     3%     -      -      2%     1%     1%     -
Smwht satisfied      16     36      2     14     18     15     17     13
Smwht dissatisfied   35     45     26     35     34     35     36     34
Very dissatisfied    47     14     72     50     46     48     45     53
DK/NA                 1      1      -      -      -      1      1      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        1%     2%     -      2%     2%     1%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      17     36      5     16     20     15     19     11
Smwht dissatisfied   32     47     23     29     32     32     33     29
Very dissatisfied    49     14     71     53     46     52     48     58
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
 
27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Right thing          37%    73%     7%    30%    40%    35%    41%    24%    34%
Wrong thing          58     22     91     64     57     60     54     72     65
DK/NA                 4      5      1      6      3      5      5      4      2
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Right thing          37%    71%     6%    35%    41%    33%    42%     2%    29%
Wrong thing          57     21     92     59     55     59     51     95     68
DK/NA                 6      8      2      6      4      8      7      4      3
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Right thing          36%    72%     6%    33%    35%    36%    38%    31%
Wrong thing          59     21     91     59     61     57     56     64
DK/NA                 6      7      2      7      5      7      6      5
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Right thing          38%    76%    14%    37%    42%    35%    41%    33%
Wrong thing          56     16     84     57     53     59     53     63
DK/NA                 6      8      3      5      6      6      6      4
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
A) Begin immediate
 withdrawal/18 mos   39%    15%    65%    40%    37%    41%    35%    59%    44%
B) Stay until stable/
 No fixed dates      55     82     28     53     58     52     60     33     49
DK/NA                 6      3      6      7      5      6      5      8      7
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A) Begin immediate
 withdrawal/18 mos   42%    15%    66%    43%    37%    46%    38%    70%    46%
B) Stay until stable/
 No fixed dates      53     82     28     53     59     47     57     24     49
DK/NA                 5      4      5      4      4      6      5      6      5
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A) Begin immediate
 withdrawal/18 mos   40%    14%    67%    37%    35%    44%    38%    44%
B) Stay until stable/
 No fixed dates      56     84     29     59     62     51     57     51
DK/NA                 4      2      4      4      3      5      5      5
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A) Begin immediate
 withdrawal/18 mos   41%    17%    61%    37%    34%    47%    39%    43%
B) Stay until stable/
 No fixed dates      55     79     35     59     62     48     57     52
DK/NA                 5      4      4      5      4      5      4      5
 
 
29. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        15%    22%    11%    13%    17%    14%    15%    20%    21%
Falling behind       24     15     33     25     24     24     24     22     31
Holding steady       60     63     54     62     59     61     60     57     47
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1      1      -      1
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        10%    11%     7%    12%    14%     7%    10%    12%    10%
Falling behind       28     21     34     31     28     29     27     30     29
Holding steady       60     68     58     55     57     63     62     56     61
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      1      3      1
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        11%    16%     6%    10%    15%     8%    11%    13%
Falling behind       25     16     36     24     22     28     24     25
Holding steady       64     68     58     65     63     64     64     61
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
Getting ahead        12%    17%    10%    10%    16%     9%    12%    10%
Falling behind       24     12     32     22     24     25     25     21
Holding steady       63     70     57     67     60     65     63     69
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      -      1      1      -
 
 
30. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
CO                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    His    HsHlds
 
A) Retirement funds  16%    17%    15%    17%    15%    17%    18%    10%    17%
B) Real estate vals  14     17     12     13     16     13     14     12      8
C) Health care cost  22     17     31     19     19     24     22     20     25
D) Gasoline prices   26     32     16     27     28     23     25     32     28
E) Food prices       17     12     19     20     15     18     15     25     20
DK/NA                 5      5      6      4      6      5      6      2      3
 
                                                                             Union
MI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
A) Retirement funds  16%    14%    16%    18%    15%    17%    17%    12%    18%
B) Real estate vals  16     22     15     12     16     15     16     17     13
C) Health care cost  19     18     21     20     18     21     19     26     21
D) Gasoline prices   34     34     31     35     38     31     35     28     34
E) Food prices       10      6     13     11      9     11      9     11     10
DK/NA                 5      5      4      4      4      5      4      6      5
 
                                                                      Union
MN                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A) Retirement funds  17%    14%    18%    19%    20%    15%    17%    20%
B) Real estate vals  12     16     11     10     12     12     12      9
C) Health care cost  23     16     28     24     22     24     24     21
D) Gasoline prices   29     36     23     30     31     28     29     35
E) Food prices       13     14     15     11     10     16     13     11
DK/NA                 5      4      5      6      5      5      5      3
 
                                                                      Union
WI                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    HsHlds
 
A) Retirement funds  16%    16%    15%    16%    16%    16%    16%    20%
B) Real estate vals   9     11      9      8     10      8      8      5
C) Health care cost  22     17     25     25     22     23     24     27
D) Gasoline prices   35     39     35     31     36     34     34     34
E) Food prices       13     13     12     14     11     15     13     12
DK/NA                 5      5      4      6      5      5      5      3