October 29, 2008 - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Tighten Up In Final Week, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Obama Out Front, But Florida Is Too Close To Call --- FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 45; OHIO: Obama 51 - McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - McCain 41

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With six days to go Sen. Barack Obama is holding off what appears to be a too-little, too-late move by Republican Sen. John McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but the Democrat's two-point lead among likely voters in Florida leaves that state too close to call, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
  • Florida: Obama 47 to McCain's 45 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent October 23;
  • Ohio: Obama up 51 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 38 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 41 percent, compared to 53 - 40 percent last time.
Obama would be a "great" or "good" President, according to 51 percent of Florida voters, 52 percent of Ohio voters and 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters.

McCain would be a "great" or "good" President, say 47 percent of Florida voters, 43 percent of Ohio voters and 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters.

"If - IF - Sen. Barack Obama can take Florida, he could match or come close to President Bill Clinton's re-election margin in 1996, carrying all three of the big swing states en route to rolling up 379 Electoral College votes. The last challenger to win the Big Three was Ronald Reagan, who tallied 489 Electoral College votes in his 1980 landslide," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Time is running out for Sen. John McCain, and this poll shows the number of voters who say they might change their mind to support him gets smaller and smaller," Brown added.

"Sen. McCain has made up some ground in the last week among white voters, especially in Florida where the race remains close. To win the election, he has to dominate the white vote and Sen. Obama is keeping it close enough there to maintain his slightly smaller lead.

"The Democratic edge in enthusiasm is obvious and best evidenced by the early voting figures in Ohio and Florida. In Ohio the number of Democrats voting early is twice the Republican number, while in Florida the Democratic early turnout is almost 10 points better."

President George W. Bush's approval ratings are:
  • 27 - 68 percent in Florida;
  • 23 - 72 percent in Ohio;
  • 23 - 72 percent in Pennsylvania.
Florida

Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 - 34 percent.

Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 - 40 percent among white voters, 72 - 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 - 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 - 20 percent among Jews and 56 - 39 percent among voters 18 - 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 - 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama.

Independent voters back Obama 47 - 39 percent.

By a 53 - 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 55 - 38 percent for McCain.

Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a 44 - 41 percent favorability.

Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 - 29 percent favorability.

The economy is the most important election issue, 59 percent of Florida voters say.

"The reason Sen. McCain is doing better in Florida than some other key states is his strength among white voters without college degrees. He leads Sen. Obama by 18 points among that group in Florida, but is neck and neck with him among such voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania," Brown said.

Ohio

Obama leads 57 - 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio.

Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama's 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 - 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 - 40 percent.

Independent voters go 50 - 38 percent for the Democrat.

Obama gets a 55 - 34 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 - 42 percent for McCain.

Palin's favorability is 41 - 40 percent, while Biden gets a 47 - 28 percent favorability.

For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue.

"The Obama campaign has worried for months about winning Ohio's white working-class voters, including those who had been with Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary. Obama's ability to be competitive with that group is why he is ahead. He's only losing one in five Clinton voters and is within two points of Sen. McCain among whites without college degrees. That's a recipe for Obama success," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Obama leads 59 - 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 - 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 - 2 percent. He also leads 61 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters over 55.

Independent voters back the Democrat 54 - 35 percent. Obama gets a 59 - 33 percent favorability, compared to McCain's 50 - 43 percent. Palin's favorability is a negative 38 - 43 percent, while Biden gets 49 - 29 percent.

The economy is the most important issue, 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters say.

"Pennsylvania is consistently Obama blue down the home stretch, even with white voters only narrowly in his corner. Sen. Barack Obama's big lead over Sen. John McCain in the critical southeast Philadelphia suburbs - the key to the Keystone State in recent elections - should seal up Pennsylvania for Obama," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From October 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,435 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,425 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
  • 1,364 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
FLORIDA              Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                47%    11%    86%    47%    44%    50%    56%    46%    45%
McCain               45     86      9     39     49     42     39     46     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      3      2      1      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      2      4     11      5      6      2      6      7
 
                     Alrdy  IMPQ6  North/
                     Voted  Econ   PnHnd  Bay    Cntrl  SthW   SthE
 
Obama                58%    57%    39%    50%    46%    29%    59%
McCain               34     37     53     38     48     62     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      4      1      4      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      4      7      7      5      5      5
 
                     WHITE.........................................
                            NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath   His    Jew
 
Obama                40%    37%    47%    39%    41%    21%    42%    42%    75%
McCain               53     55     48     54     52     72     53     47     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2      1      2      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      4      5      6      5      4     11      5
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                13%    90%    81%    95%     5%    67%
McCain               82      6     13      3     89     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      4      5      2      5      6
 
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31
TREND:               2008    2008    2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                47      49      51      49      43      43      46
McCain               45      44      43      43      50      47      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 6       7       5       7       6       8       7
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
FL                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              93%    94%    93%
Might change          6      6      7
DK/NA                 1      1      -
 
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
OHIO                 Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                51%    12%    86%    50%    45%    55%    59%    46%    50%
McCain               42     85      9     38     48     36     36     47     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      2      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      3     11      6      7      4      5      8
 
                     Alrdy  IMPQ6
                     Voted  Econ   Cntrl  NrthE  NrthW  SthE   SthW   WstCnt
 
Obama                57%    58%    54%    53%    45%    45%    47%    47%
McCain               31     34     41     39     43     45     45     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      5      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                10      6      4      7     11      5      8      5
 
                     WHITE.........................................
                            NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath   Blk
 
Obama                46%    45%    47%    41%    50%    33%    45%    89%
McCain               47     47     48     52     42     61     49      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      2      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      4      5      6      5      6     10
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                15%    86%    73%    92%     5%    68%
McCain               79     10     20      7     89     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      4      6      1      5      6
 
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31
TREND:               2008    2008    2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                51      52      50      49      49      44      46
McCain               42      38      42      42      44      43      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 7       8       7       8       5      11       8
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
OH                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              91%    91%    91%
Might change          8      8      8
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               AGE IN YRS.......
PENNSYLVANIA         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-54  55+
 
Obama                53%    15%    87%    54%    46%    59%    61%    51%    51%
McCain               41     82      9     35     49     35     36     43     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      -      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      2      3     10      5      5      2      6      6
 
                     IMPQ6
                     Econ   Algny  Phily  NEast  SEast  NWest  SWest  Cntrl
 
Obama                59%    55%    81%    57%    57%    46%    47%    40%
McCain               35     37     14     39     39     44     51     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      8      5      3      4      9      1      6
 
                     WHITE.........................................
                            NoColl College              BrnAgn
                     Tot    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Evngl  Cath   Blk
 
Obama                48%    45%    55%    41%    53%    31%    49%    95%
McCain               47     48     43     55     40     62     47      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      1      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      2      4      5      7      3      3
 
                     PresVt2004..  DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9
                     Bush   Kerry  Clintn Obama  App    Dis
 
Obama                17%    86%    75%    96%     9%    70%
McCain               78     11     20      4     88     25
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      4      -      3      5
 
                     Oct 29  Oct 23  Oct 1   Oct 1   Sep 11  Aug 26  Jul 31
TREND:               2008    2008    2008**  2008*   2008    2008    2008
 
Obama                53      53      54      49      48      49      49
McCain               41      40      39      43      45      42      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 5       5       6       7       6       9       8
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
PA                   Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              91%    91%    92%
Might change          8      9      8
DK/NA                 1      1      -
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            53%    20%    86%    55%    50%    55%
Unfavorable          37     69      9     30     39     34
Hvn't hrd enough      7      8      3      9      7      6
REFUSED               4      3      2      6      3      4
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            55%    20%    87%    56%    51%    58%
Unfavorable          34     71      8     28     37     31
Hvn't hrd enough      7      8      3      9      7      8
REFUSED               4      2      2      6      5      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            59%    23%    89%    61%    53%    63%
Unfavorable          33     65      6     30     37     29
Hvn't hrd enough      6      8      4      7      7      6
REFUSED               2      4      1      1      3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            55%    89%    21%    53%    60%    50%
Unfavorable          38      8     69     37     34     41
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      5      4      4      3
REFUSED               4      2      4      5      3      5
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            51%    86%    25%    46%    57%    45%
Unfavorable          42     11     68     42     36     46
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      4      6      3      5
REFUSED               3      3      2      5      4      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%    83%    22%    48%    57%    44%
Unfavorable          43     12     70     44     38     47
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      4      6      3      5
REFUSED               3      3      4      3      2      4
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            50%    26%    77%    48%    48%    51%
Unfavorable          29     53      6     27     34     24
Hvn't hrd enough     18     19     15     19     15     21
REFUSED               3      2      2      6      3      4
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            47%    22%    72%    44%    47%    47%
Unfavorable          28     55      6     25     32     23
Hvn't hrd enough     23     21     20     29     20     27
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      2      2
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%    21%    72%    54%    44%    53%
Unfavorable          29     56      7     25     36     23
Hvn't hrd enough     20     21     20     18     18     22
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      2
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            44%    80%    14%    34%    44%    43%
Unfavorable          41     11     69     46     39     43
Hvn't hrd enough     14      8     16     17     15     12
REFUSED               2      1      1      4      2      2
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    78%    15%    36%    43%    40%
Unfavorable          40      8     68     40     38     42
Hvn't hrd enough     17     12     15     22     17     16
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      2
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            38%    70%    11%    36%    44%    33%
Unfavorable          43     15     67     44     38     47
Hvn't hrd enough     17     13     20     19     16     19
REFUSED               2      2      1      2      2      1
 
 
6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism            11%    19%     4%    12%    12%    10%
The war in Iraq       8      9      7      8      9      7
The economy          59     50     68     59     57     60
Illegal immigration   2      3      1      2      2      1
Energy policy         4      5      2      5      5      4
Health care           9      5     16      5      7     12
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  5      7      1      5      5      4
DK/NA                 2      2      2      3      3      2
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             8%    17%     1%     7%     9%     7%
The war in Iraq       8      7      7      9      7      8
The economy          59     49     69     59     58     60
Illegal immigration   3      2      3      4      5      1
Energy policy         5      9      1      4      7      3
Health care          10      7     15      9      7     13
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  4      6      2      4      3      5
DK/NA                 3      3      2      4      2      3
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Terrorism             8%    18%     1%     6%     8%     7%
The war in Iraq      11      9     12     11     12     10
The economy          54     49     60     50     52     55
Illegal immigration   3      4      2      2      3      3
Energy policy         7      6      4     12     10      4
Health care          12      7     15     12      8     15
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  3      5      2      3      3      4
DK/NA                 3      3      3      4      3      3
 
 
7. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Great                22%     4%    43%    23%    21%    24%
Good                 29     14     44     29     28     30
So so                22     37      7     23     24     21
Bad                  21     39      3     17     24     18
DK/NA                 6      6      4      8      4      8
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Great                18%     4%    33%    15%    15%    20%
Good                 34     15     51     35     31     37
So so                21     32      8     25     23     20
Bad                  20     44      5     16     24     17
DK/NA                 6      4      3     10      6      6
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Great                19%     5%    34%    16%    17%    20%
Good                 36     16     52     38     31     40
So so                19     30      8     24     20     18
Bad                  19     41      3     13     25     14
DK/NA                 7      8      4      8      7      6
 
 
8. If John McCain is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Great                11%    23%     2%     8%    11%    11%
Good                 36     57     17     35     38     35
So so                30     14     44     34     33     28
Bad                  17      4     31     15     15     18
DK/NA                 5      3      6      8      4      7
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Great                 7%    15%     2%     4%     5%     8%
Good                 36     64     14     34     38     34
So so                33     15     45     38     35     32
Bad                  19      4     35     16     17     21
DK/NA                 5      2      4      8      5      5
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Great                 7%    15%     1%     6%     6%     7%
Good                 35     58     17     31     40     31
So so                33     19     43     37     31     34
Bad                  20      3     35     20     17     22
DK/NA                 6      5      5      7      5      6
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
FL                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              27%    54%     4%    20%    29%    25%
Disapprove           68     38     93     75     68     68
DK/NA                 5      8      3      5      3      8
 
OH                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              23%    52%     3%    18%    24%    22%
Disapprove           72     43     95     74     71     73
DK/NA                 5      5      2      8      5      5
 
PA                   Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              23%    48%     5%    18%    27%    20%
Disapprove           72     44     93     78     67     76
DK/NA                 5      8      2      5      6      4