September 15, 2011 - Perry Blossoms As Bachmann Wilts In Virginia GOP Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney, Perry Both Neck And Neck With Obama

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the presidential choice of Virginia Republicans 25 - 19 percent, with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Perry tops Romney 43 - 36 percent in a two-man faceoff, but both run neck and neck against President Barack Obama.

Voters in Virginia, a key state in President Obama's 2008 winning coalition, disapprove 54 - 40 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 48 - 48 percent split in a June 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Obama does not deserve four more years, voters say 51 - 41 percent.

In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen, both former governors, remain in a statistical dead heat more than 13 months before the voting.

No other GOP White House aspirant breaks into double-digits among Virginia Republicans and GOP-leaning independent voters. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul gets 8 percent, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 7 percent, businessman Herman Cain at 6 percent, Bachmann at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 4 percent, former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at 2 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 1 percent.

There is a sizable gender gap in the Perry-Romney two-man race. Perry leads among men 49 - 33 percent, but trails by a narrow 40 - 37 percent among women. Perry also laps Romney 51 - 29 percent among white evangelical Christians, a key part of the GOP coalition. Among military households the two are in a statistical tie tipping to Perry 40 - 38 percent.

"Rick Perry's campaign sees carrying the South in the nomination race as critical and the data from the Capital of the Confederacy gives him reason to be optimistic," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Interesting is the size of the gender gap within the Republican primary that seems to be developing," Brown added.

"And while this is our first look at the GOP presidential race in Virginia, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann's 5-percent showing could be a real body blow to her White House hopes."

In possible 2012 matchups, Obama has 44 percent to Perry's 42 percent, while Romney gets 44 percent to Obama's 42 percent, all too close to call. Obama does much better against two other Republicans, besting Bachmann 48 - 37 percent and Palin 50 - 35 percent.

"At this point Romney and Perry both are in a horse race against President Barack Obama, challenging Romney's 'electability' argument," said Brown. "The big difference is among independent voters, where Romney holds a solid 44 - 35 percent lead, and Perry is in a 40 - 40 percent dead heat with the president."

Obama's job approval is plummeting among independent voters, who disapprove 62 - 29 percent, compared to a 54 - 41 percent disapproval June 30. Republicans disapprove 87 - 11 percent while Democrats approve 83 - 13 percent, down from 92 - 5 percent in June. Men disapprove 61 - 36 percent, as women disapprove 49 - 43 percent. White voters disapprove 67 - 28 percent, while black voters approve 83 - 11 percent.

In the state's open U.S. Senate race, Allen gets 45 percent to Kaine's 44 percent, statistically unchanged from June when it was Kaine 43 percent to Allen's 42 percent. Republicans go 87 - 8 percent for Allen, while Kaine leads 89 - 8 percent among Democrats. Kaine gets 42 percent of independent voters to Allen's 40 percent. Men back Allen 51 - 41 percent as women back Kaine 47 - 39 percent. White voters support Allen 54 - 38 percent, as black voters support Kaine 73 - 17 percent.

Kaine's support wanes and Allen's increases the higher voters are on the age scale, while Kaine leads among those with college degrees 50 - 41 percent, but trails Allen among those without degrees 47 - 41 percent.

From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,368 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 591 voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.


1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS...............................
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Perry                25%    31%    19%
Palin                 7      8      6
Gingrich              4      2      7
Romney               19     19     20
Bachmann              5      3      8
Santorum              2      2      1
Paul                  8     12      3
Huntsman              1      1      2
Cain                  6      4      7
McCotter              -      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      1
DK/NA                20     14     26
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Perry                28%    24%    22%    19%    26%    33%
Palin                10     10      3     12      6      9
Gingrich              3      1      5      4      5      3
Romney               14     19     25     15     20     14
Bachmann              6      8      5      5      6      2
Santorum              4      2      1      2      2      2
Paul                  7      7     10      9      5      9
Huntsman              -      1      2      -      1      2
Cain                  5      8     10      4      4      6
McCotter              -      -      1      -      1      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      2      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      3      2      2      2
DK/NA                21     15     12     26     22     18
 
 
2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS...............................
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Perry                43%    49%    37%
Romney               36     33     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2
DK/NA                16     13     21
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Perry                51%    40%    38%    43%    45%    48%
Romney               29     38     44     31     36     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      4      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      3      2      2      4
DK/NA                16     15     14     20     17     15
 
3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                44%     8%    92%    40%    42%    46%    33%    90%
Perry                42     88      3     40     44     41     55      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      5      4      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      4      3      3      2      -
DK/NA                 8      3      5     11      7      9      7      6
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Obama                18%    39%    51%    49%    42%    36%
Perry                72     47     34     37     48     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      4      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      4      3      2
DK/NA                 6     10     10      6      6     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                51%    43%    41%    41%    51%    82%    57%    13%
Perry                28     47     49     44     40      9     29     75
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      2      1      3      2      1      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      3      3      2      2      2      4
DK/NA                11      6      6      9      6      6      9      6
 
 
4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                48%    11%    94%    45%    46%    49%    38%    89%
Bachmann             37     78      2     33     39     35     47      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      -      5      5      2      4      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      1      7      4      4      4      -
DK/NA                 8      4      3     11      6     10      7      6
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Obama                23%    40%    57%    51%    44%    39%
Bachmann             62     43     28     33     43     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      4      5      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      6      2      4      4
DK/NA                 7      9      6      8      6     13
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                55%    47%    43%    44%    54%    85%    64%    13%
Bachmann             26     41     43     39     33      8     21     71
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      2      3      3      3      2      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      5      4      4      1      5      5
DK/NA                12      6      6      9      5      4      7      8
 
 
5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                42%     7%    90%    35%    40%    44%    30%    91%
Romney               44     87      4     44     47     42     57      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      5      4      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      3      2      2      2      -
DK/NA                 9      3      6     13      7     10      9      3
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Obama                17%    36%    46%    48%    42%    32%
Romney               70     49     38     35     50     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      7      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      1      2      2
DK/NA                 8     10     11      9      5     13
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                51%    40%    37%    40%    47%    82%    51%    13%
Romney               34     48     50     46     42      9     35     75
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      2      3      2      1      3      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      2      2      1      2      3
DK/NA                10      7      9     10      6      7      9      7
 
 
6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Obama                50%    11%    96%    50%    47%    53%    40%    92%
Palin                35     77      1     30     38     33     46      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      -      5      5      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      1      8      4      6      6      -
DK/NA                 6      4      1      7      5      6      5      4
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Obama                25%    45%    61%    50%    47%    42%
Palin                64     40     26     32     39     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      4      3      6      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      7      6      6      5      5
DK/NA                 4      5      3      7      6      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Obama                60%    47%    45%    46%    57%    87%    65%    16%
Palin                23     39     43     39     30      7     20     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      2      2      3      3      1      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      6      5      5      2      6      6
DK/NA                 8      6      4      6      5      2      5      7
 
 
7. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Kaine                44%     8%    89%    42%    41%    47%    38%    73%
Allen                45     87      8     40     51     39     54     17
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      2      1      1      -      -
DK/NA(VOL)            9      4      3     14      6     13      7      9
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Kaine                25%    38%    48%    43%    42%    45%
Allen                65     53     39     43     49     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      2      1      -
DK/NA(VOL)            9      9     11     10      8      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Kaine                47%    45%    41%    41%    50%    78%    55%    16%
Allen                35     47     52     47     41     15     33     75
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      1      -      1      1
DK/NA(VOL)           16      7      6     10      8      6      9      9
 
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Kaine                44      43
Allen                45      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2
DK/NA(VOL)            9      11
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              40%    11%    83%    29%    36%    43%    28%    83%
Disapprove           54     87     13     62     61     49     67     11
DK/NA                 6      2      3      9      3      9      5      7
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Approve              17%    34%    40%    49%    38%    33%
Disapprove           80     58     52     46     57     61
DK/NA                 3      8      8      5      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Approve              46%    39%    35%    38%    41%    75%    48%    14%
Disapprove           45     56     61     55     53     20     46     82
DK/NA                 9      5      4      6      5      4      6      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Approve              40      48
Disapprove           54      48
DK/NA                 6       4
 
 
15. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes/Deserves         41%     9%    85%    34%    38%    44%    29%    88%
No/Does not          51     88      8     57     56     47     63     10
DK/NA                 8      3      7      9      6      9      7      2
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Yes/Deserves         18%    38%    41%    49%    41%    33%
No/Does not          76     56     47     46     53     57
DK/NA                 6      6     11      5      6     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Yes/Deserves         46%    40%    38%    40%    43%    75%    50%    14%
No/Does not          40     55     57     53     48     16     42     81
DK/NA                14      5      5      7      9      9      8      5
 
 
TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Yes/Deserves         41      47
No/Does not          51      47
DK/NA                 8       6
 
 
16. Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Like                 70%    47%    94%    73%    70%    71%    66%    91%
Don't Like           15     32      -     13     16     14     19      2
DK/NA                14     21      5     14     14     15     15      7
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Like                 59%    69%    73%    72%    72%    61%
Don't Like           24     17     16     16     13     18
DK/NA                17     14     10     12     15     21
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Like                 77%    70%    67%    69%    74%    92%    81%    49%
Don't Like            6     18     19     16     15      2      8     30
DK/NA                17     12     13     16     12      5     11     21
 
TREND: Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Like                 70      74
Don't Like           15      14
DK/NA                14      12
 
 
17. And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Like                 41%     8%    84%    37%    37%    45%    31%    82%
Don't Like           52     88      9     56     57     47     63     12
DK/NA                 7      3      7      7      6      9      7      7
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Like                 20%    38%    43%    46%    40%    35%
Don't Like           77     55     48     47     55     55
DK/NA                 3      7      9      8      5     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Like                 49%    39%    37%    39%    45%    76%    51%    14%
Don't Like           43     55     56     54     48     18     41     84
DK/NA                 8      6      7      7      7      6      9      3
 
TREND: And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Like                 41      47
Don't Like           52      48
DK/NA                 7       6
 
 
29. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Right thing          37%    56%    26%    32%    42%    32%    42%    19%
Shld not be involved 54     35     65     62     51     57     50     71
DK/NA                 9      9      9      6      6     11      8     10
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Right thing          41%    42%    41%    36%    33%    40%
Shld not be involved 51     49     52     54     56     53
DK/NA                 8      8      7     10     10      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Right thing          39%    39%    35%    36%    40%    21%    35%    50%
Shld not be involved 54     54     54     55     53     71     58     43
DK/NA                 7      7     10      9      7      9      7      7
 
 
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Right thing          37      38
Shld not be involved 54      55
DK/NA                 9       7
 
 
30. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Repeal it            51%    83%    16%    52%    57%    45%    59%    21%
Let it stand         38      8     75     37     37     40     32     69
DK/NA                11      9      9     12      6     15      9      9
 
                     White         AREA........................
                     BrnAgn Mltry                East/  West/
                     Evngl  HsHlds North  SthEst Rchmnd Shndoah
 
Repeal it            71%    55%    41%    47%    54%    62%
Let it stand         17     37     49     42     36     25
DK/NA                12      8     10     11     10     13
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    COLL DEGREE   POL PHIL.........
                     18-34  35-54  55+    No     Yes    Lib    Mod    Con
 
Repeal it            46%    54%    53%    55%    44%    15%    42%    80%
Let it stand         41     38     36     33     48     75     48     12
DK/NA                13      9     11     12      8     11     10      8
 
TREND: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
                     Sep 15  Jun 30
                     2011    2011
 
Repeal it            51      49
Let it stand         38      42
DK/NA                11       9
 
 
 

Demographic Summary